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Gavin Feng

Weekend Thread: Dear Evan Hansen $800K THU Previews

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what i mean it's not a flop or a bomb.

In the heights got a kind of 3X multiplier. This is not on Hbo Max and musicals usually have good multipliers. So let'see. It can make that 60-70M WW (for what i know the musical is also on stage in London).  In the heights made 14M OS. I think this in the fall should have a bigger international appeal than that for several seasons. First of all "the director of two succesfull movies in europe" and some star in the cast.

Edited by vale900
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Next weekend should be more funny. Venom 2 will come to US & Canada on Friday while local war epic Changjin & drama My Country, My Parents will debut on Sep.30 in China. No Time to Die would also open on the end of Sep in UK.

 

No Time to Die ticket sale according to THR:

 

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James Bond Fever Hits U.K. Ahead of ‘No Time To Die’ World Premiere, Ticket Pre-Sales Are Biggest Since ‘Avengers: Endgame’

 

“It’s really, really good – it’s the best advanced sales we’ve seen for anything for a very, very long time,” said one exec working for a smaller regional U.K. chain, who added that sales were “far, far in excess of what we got for Tenet.

In terms of how No Time To Die matches pre-pandemic releases, the exec says the “nearest equivalent” is Avengers: Endgame. Endgame was the last one that probably had the same palpable sense of ‘this absolutely cannot be missed’ and there was a sense of urgency about seeing it as soon as possible.”

 

In China, Changjin is looking to make $135~175M on 4-day opening, according to the suggestions from ticket sales.

 

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https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-halloween-kills/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 9/24/21)

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
9/30/2021 After We Fell         1,131 Fathom Events
10/1/2021 The Addams Family 2 $12,000,000 – $22,000,000   $40,000,000 – $70,000,000   3,800 United Artists Releasing
10/1/2021 The Jesus Music         n/a Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
10/1/2021 The Many Saints of Newark $7,000,000 – $16,000,000   $20,000,000 – $45,000,000   3,600 Warner Bros. Pictures
10/1/2021 Venom: Let There Be Carnage $45,000,000 – $65,000,000 4% $105,000,000 – $145,000,000 4% 4,000 Sony Pictures / Columbia
10/8/2021 No Time to Die $56,000,000 – $85,000,000   $140,000,000 – $240,000,000     MGM
10/15/2021 Halloween Kills $35,000,000 – $55,000,000   $70,000,000 – $95,000,000     Universal Pictures
10/15/2021 The Last Duel $5,000,000 – $15,000,000   $15,000,000 – $60,000,000     Disney / 20th Century Studios
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17 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

 

Paramount is collapsing :hahaha:  @CJ Sarandos

Snake Eyes literally killed a studio fucking lmao. They will soon be 100% focused on Paramount+.

 

16 minutes ago, Cap said:


our friend has a little something he’d like to say!

 

He is not wrong. The ranges are ridiculous. 

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Guardian:

 

‘Bondmania’: cinemas hire extra staff for No Time To Die release

Daniel Craig’s last outing as 007 is expected to be the biggest opening weekend at the British box office since Avengers: Endgame more than two years ago, as cinemas hire hundreds of extra staff to cope with “Bondmania”.

Advance ticket sales have put No Time to Die on track to be the second-highest grossing film in the 59-year-old franchise after it finally gets its world public premiere on 30 September. It follows an almost 18-month delay and four release date changes, and cinema owners are pulling out all the stops to sate demand with the film to be screened in more than 700 cinemas across the UK and Ireland.
……

“We sold more [advance] tickets to No Time To Die in 24 hours than we did for Spectre in a month,” says Richards. “To be even-handed, there are now significant increases in advance bookings, but it is still tracking to be bigger than Spectre.”

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/film/2021/sep/24/bondmania-cinemas-hire-extra-staff-ahead-of-no-time-to-die-release?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

 

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29 minutes ago, Cap said:


our friend has a little something he’d like to say!

 


box office beef?

 

can Mendelson fight or is he all tweet?

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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Question about NTD's pre-sales in UK. Are they so big cause pandemic is over in UK or cause UK is making an exception for 007 despite the pandemic? 

 

UK has been having good albeit not great numbers for awhile but this is the usual UK Bondmania in play.

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1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

Guardian:

 

‘Bondmania’: cinemas hire extra staff for No Time To Die release

Daniel Craig’s last outing as 007 is expected to be the biggest opening weekend at the British box office since Avengers: Endgame more than two years ago, as cinemas hire hundreds of extra staff to cope with “Bondmania”.

Advance ticket sales have put No Time to Die on track to be the second-highest grossing film in the 59-year-old franchise after it finally gets its world public premiere on 30 September. It follows an almost 18-month delay and four release date changes, and cinema owners are pulling out all the stops to sate demand with the film to be screened in more than 700 cinemas across the UK and Ireland.
……

“We sold more [advance] tickets to No Time To Die in 24 hours than we did for Spectre in a month,” says Richards. “To be even-handed, there are now significant increases in advance bookings, but it is still tracking to be bigger than Spectre.”

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/film/2021/sep/24/bondmania-cinemas-hire-extra-staff-ahead-of-no-time-to-die-release?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

 

I can vouch for this, but hiring new swaths of staff specifically for big movies is NOT out of the ordinary in the slightest. I was first hired for Age of Ultron, a couple of my friends were hired for BvS/Suicide Squad respectively. Big waves of hiring every time a Star Wars/Marvel movie comes out. It's normal.

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2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Guardian:

 

‘Bondmania’: cinemas hire extra staff for No Time To Die release

Daniel Craig’s last outing as 007 is expected to be the biggest opening weekend at the British box office since Avengers: Endgame more than two years ago, as cinemas hire hundreds of extra staff to cope with “Bondmania”.

Advance ticket sales have put No Time to Die on track to be the second-highest grossing film in the 59-year-old franchise after it finally gets its world public premiere on 30 September. It follows an almost 18-month delay and four release date changes, and cinema owners are pulling out all the stops to sate demand with the film to be screened in more than 700 cinemas across the UK and Ireland.
……

“We sold more [advance] tickets to No Time To Die in 24 hours than we did for Spectre in a month,” says Richards. “To be even-handed, there are now significant increases in advance bookings, but it is still tracking to be bigger than Spectre.”

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/film/2021/sep/24/bondmania-cinemas-hire-extra-staff-ahead-of-no-time-to-die-release?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium=&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

 


I think it would be safe to say the chances of it becoming the 2nd biggest grossing Bond in the U.K. after Skyfall are slim to none.  Lol. 
 

two thirds of Spectre would be gobsmacking. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Holy shit at people saying DEH will do more than 10M OS. Truly hilarious. It probably won't even come out in most markets.

 

Over or under ITH OS?

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$800k previews and a potential $10m opening doesn’t seem that bad for Dear Evan Hansen tbh. This cinema release will be an advertisement for home watching where it will probably clean up. 

Edited by Krissykins
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