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Gavin Feng

Weekend Thread: Dear Evan Hansen $800K THU Previews

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9 hours ago, Cap said:


our friend has a little something he’d like to say!

 

I mean sure, ranges are so wide. I wanted to ask @Shawn to may be get bold and reduce them considerably and since we are basically owned by BO Pro (we are right?), may be use the thread sometime 👀

 

but... Mendelson has no right in saying that with sort of ridiculous takes on box office he personally has.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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7 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

UK has been having good albeit not great numbers for awhile but this is the usual UK Bondmania in play.

UK is doing normal numbers I believe, just weak releases. The ratio of business is about normal times i.e US being 8-10x of UK. Shang Chi will reach £22M+, which I guess is totally normal since Far From Home was £37M. May be £2-3M more, but that's trivial.

 

Even TSS hit £15M, which usually would mean $150M US. Free Guy should go for £18M+.

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22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

UK is doing normal numbers I believe, just weak releases. The ratio of business is about normal times i.e US being 8-10x of UK. Shang Chi will reach £22M+, which I guess is totally normal since Far From Home was £37M. May be £2-3M more, but that's trivial.

 

Even TSS hit £15M, which usually would mean $150M US. Free Guy should go for £18M+.

Ratio is closer to 7 going on yearly totals.

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Evan Hansen would obviously win friday with its previews but what about true friday. I think SC will win to continue streak. 

For sure. DEH like 2.5 vs SC 3.5+ -- I actually don't think DEH will win even with previews rolled in.

Edited by Legion of the Ten Crores
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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean sure, ranges are so wide. I wanted to ask @Shawn to may be get bold and reduce them considerably and since we are basically owned by BO Pro (we are right?), may be use the thread sometime 👀

 

but... Mendelson has no right in saying that with sort of ridiculous takes on box office he personally has.

First off, no, Boxoffice PRO doesn't own the forums anymore. They haven't since 2014.

 

Second, I'm just going to laugh at Scott's post and move on. :)

 

Third, the ranges exist for a reason. If someone is interested in more precise forecasts, they are welcome to pay for them like clients do. We give out a lot more for free consumption than most other publications. It would be a disservice to subscribers and the business as a whole to give everything for free 100% of the time.

 

I see what you mean in respects, but being "bold" isn't our goal when aiming to be objective in analytics. Context is everything. If this were a perfect science, no one would be investing time and money into data mining and projections. But because it isn't a perfect science is exactly why everyone has their own model and why the ranges (which are quite realistic, especially in the current climate) need to exist.

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All good points. On the other hand, range balancing is really more of an art than a science, right @Shawn?  

 

For instance, NTTD is currently (for free folks) 56-85. Now, the range could have been 55-86 instead. That's strictly less informative, but also strictly more likely to contain the true OW, without changing the point estimate. On the other hand, the range provided could have been 57-84 -- same average, strictly more informative, strictly less likely to contain the true OW.    

 

Unless they are intended as 90% confidence intervals or some other quantitative measure, which isn't the impression I have, the question of how wide a band to claim around the point estimate is pretty much a matter of trading off some subjective benefits vs others at the margins.

 

I would personally prefer tighter bands in some cases, for largely aesthetic reasons, but I also know the professional incentives might not be there when considering the entire ecosystem.

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34 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

All good points. On the other hand, range balancing is really more of an art than a science, right @Shawn?  

 

For instance, NTTD is currently (for free folks) 56-85. Now, the range could have been 55-86 instead. That's strictly less informative, but also strictly more likely to contain the true OW, without changing the point estimate. On the other hand, the range provided could have been 57-84 -- same average, strictly more informative, strictly less likely to contain the true OW.    

 

Unless they are intended as 90% confidence intervals or some other quantitative measure, which isn't the impression I have, the question of how wide a band to claim around the point estimate is pretty much a matter of trading off some subjective benefits vs others at the margins.

 

I would personally prefer tighter bands in some cases, for largely aesthetic reasons, but I also know the professional incentives might not be there when considering the entire ecosystem.

Fair points. It's quite late here and I'm typing on my phone, so I can't give a properly in-depth answer here other than to agree there always has to be a somewhat subjective cutoff on both sides of the banding -- but while informed by as much data as we can get.

 

Most of these ranges under discussion don't cover a wide range beyond reasonable probability, IMO, in part because this is still a pandemic market with variables no one has ever had to factor into forecasting.

 

If we were talking about something like a range of $100-300M on opening weekend, then yeah, I would agree it's excessive. 😄

 

In general though, especially during pandemic era, we aim to try and develop midpoints and then range out from there within a certain threshold of probability based on the model.

 

If NTTD is the focal point here, I'll just say this -- the low end of that mark is symbolic for a reason relative to box office history and the franchise's own history (keen researchers should be able to figure out why when looking at the all time October opener chart and also when considering higher ticket prices now from a couple of early 2000s Bond movies...).

 

We try to stick to increments of every $5M as often as possible, but that one in particular we took a tiny bit of leeway with instead of going with the $55M of one conservative model. Call it a bit of predictive prerogative. ;)

 

NTTD is also just a film of a different nature during COVID. All of the blockbusters up this point have had a strong young audience drive. This one is testing the waters in ways models haven't had to consider yet.

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I took a quick peak at ticket sales for today at my local theatre. 110 tickets sold for SC over 8 showings on 2 screens. 24 tickets sold across four showings on one screen for DEH. 

 

DEH is closer to Free Guy, with 17 tickets sold. 

 

This is only one theatre, and maybe there's a big walk up crowd coming, but, that seems pretty bad. 

 

My wife wants to see, and we're hoping to check it out, but, while I've seen a lot of films this summer by myself, we haven't gone on a date night, since we haven't been comfortable with a babysitter yet. It makes it a lot harder to get out to see a film like this. 

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6 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Dear Evan Hansen with a 93% verified audience score and an A- CinemaScore yet 32% with critics. Another disconnect. 

 

I think more likely an example of a film that has a hardwired, dedicated core audience of people who are already committed to loving the material. The people who like this show find it VERY important to them, and they are likely to be a large proportion of the first day audience, but there is also a very limited number of them. Not sure we can read anything into the wider reception yet.

Edited by Ipickthiswhiterose
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