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Weekend Thread: Dear Evan Hansen $800K THU Previews

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1 minute ago, CJ Sarandos said:

3.6M Friday doesn't seem bad. 11-12M weekend? Another easy first place. Insanely bad weekend for theaters all around tho.

I’d say closer to $13 million. Saturday bump should be good. 

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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Probably 13.25-14.

How? It won't jump 100% on Saturday... right?

 

I was thinking 3.6M - 5.4M - 3.7M which it seems on the optimistic side and that is still under 13M.

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2 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

How? It won't jump 100% on Saturday... right?

 

I was thinking 3.6M - 5.4M - 3.7M which it seems on the optimistic side and that is still under 13M.

A normal 60% sat increase and a 37% sun decrease takes it to 13

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https://deadline.com/2021/09/dear-evan-hansen-weekend-box-office-shang-chi-1234843679/

 

Quote

Saturday AM Update: Refresh for chart and more analysis As predicted, Disney-Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings refused to slow down, firmly holding No. 1 with a $3.6M Friday, which alone makes the Destin Daniel Cretton-directed feature the highest grossing title during the pandemic ahead of Black Widow with $186.7M running total. By the end of tomorrow, Shang-Chi will make close to $12.8M, a great -41% hold, and a running total of $196M. What’s Shang-Chi‘s ultimate domestic endgame? Just under $250M seems quite conceivable.

 

Meanwhile, Universal’s Dear Evan Hansenarguably the most prolific major studio release on the fall schedule since Shang-Chi, is not doing well after a $3.3M Friday, including $800K Thursday previews, on its way to $7.3M in the No. 2 spot; a lowly result which isn’t that far from Universal’s previous big Broadway feature take Cats which died promptly off a $6.6M opening over the Christmas 2019 holiday. If there’s anything positive to say about Dear Evan Hansen, it’s that the teen dramatic musical cost significantly less than Cats, a net $27M after Georgia tax credits versus Cats’ $90M net. Dear Evan Hansen‘s demise at the domestic B.O. comes as no surprise after critics promptly ravaged it following its TIFF premiere with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 33%.

 

The fans of the Tony-winning Benj Pasek & Justin Paul musical did show up on Friday and Thursday, hence the A- CinemaScore. Initially, I heard off Thursday previews that the Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak was 82% and a 60% definite recommend, it’s now fallen to a 78% positive with a 57% definite recommend.

 

The few who bought tickets for Dear Evan Hansen were 62% females, 52% over 25 with 54% falling between 18-34, which is what Universal was expecting. Diversity demos were 58% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 8% Black, and 13% Asian/other. Also, not shocking to hear that Dear Evan Hansen played best on the East coast, however, Salt Lake City, Utah popped with five of the top ten theaters, and eight of the top 15; a standout market alongside the B.O. cities of NYC, LA, Chicago, Philadelphia, Dallas and San Francisco.

 

The Indian-Telugu-language romantic drama Love Story from Sekhar Kammula debuted in 300 theaters and continued to show how Bollywood fare continues to draw an audience during the pandemic with a theater average of $3,2K and an estimated 3-day of $971K at 300 theaters. The movie had fairly good numbers in NYC, Dallas, San Francisco, DC and Atlanta; there’s a shot it could get to $1M in the No. 10 spot. Friday cashed in $296K.

 

Filing No. 11 is the second weekend of Searchlight’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye which surged its theater count by 902 to 1,352. This is resulting in a hold of -3% with an estimated $633K in the No. 11 spot. PostTrak exits, as the audience measure report records wide releases, showed a low audience response than CinemaScore’s B+ with 67% positive and a 38% definite recommend. Of those who turned 65% were females, and 81% over 25 and 51% between 25-44 years old. Diversity breakdown was 76% Caucasian, 9% Latino and Hispanic, 10% Black, & 5% Asian/other.

 

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Justice for In the Heights!!! How much more would it have made as a theatrical exclusive? There was a limited audience, but HBO Max certainly doesn't help any movie's box office...

 

But really, I thought Dear Evan Hansen was a bit more popular on stage than ITH (longer Broadway run) and is also a theatrical exclusive, so I figured it would do better (at least until recently). The trailer tells you what it's about, but reactions to the Platt casting and the premise have been mixed, at best. As a movie, it had worse reviews, which probably kept away any non-diehards who might have been interested if the reviews had been stronger. I guess we'll see how the legs are.

 

Too bad Sony panicked and moved Venom 2 from this weekend.

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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8 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Yeah even with a 25 mil budget that's bad.

 

Especially since this is gonna face a lot more competition soon.

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2.5M actual Friday for DEH. 3.3M - 2.6M - 1.8M. I am probably being optimistic, so under 8M OW is a certain thing. Fucking trash flop lmao. I still don't understand how anyone expected 10M+ for this. Hell, in the beginning of September I saw some people mentioning 20M. Did people look at the trailers and stills? Did people forget the pandemic? Did people forget the change of habits and that less and less people go to theaters to watch movies?

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Dear Evan Hansen will open with around $8M and quickly vanish. Another Broadway hit bites the dust on the big screen. On the plus side, the industry will get the message to stop trying to make Ben Platt a thing after The Politician and now especially this.

 

Hopefully Shang-Chi survives the October onslaught that's about to arrive.

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FG and JC are having their great time in this quiet market place like Nobody in April. SC drop this week is a bit harsher than I hoped. SC need to beat BB4L as quickly as possible before October movies come in.    

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6 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Justice for In the Heights!!! How much more would it have made as a theatrical exclusive? There was a limited audience, but HBO Max certainly doesn't help any movie's box office...

 

But really, I thought Dear Evan Hansen was a bit more popular on stage than ITH (longer Broadway run) and is also a theatrical exclusive, so I figured it would do better (at least until recently). The trailer tells you what it's about, but reaction to the Platt casting and the premise have been mixed, at best. As a movie, it had worse reviews, which probably kept away any non-diehards who might have been interested if the reviews had been stronger. I guess we'll see how the legs are.

 

Too bad Sony panicked and moved Venom 2 from this weekend.

Even disregarding the reviews and RT score being scary bad, I thought people dogging on Platt's casting was just a silly Film Twitter thing and that the normies wouldn't care. My mom even got mad at me for saying Platt looked too old for the part. But like even at work, I've heard people talking about how weird and out of place he looked. Just getting some high schooler or 20something with better genetics and a Platt cameo squeezed in there probably would have helped, since the diehards were going to see it no matter what.

 

Though Deadline does have a point that the movie's premise was probably too depressing and sad for a time when people only want happy, escapist, brandedTM fluff (granted, like they ever wanted anything else in the before times). The problematic stuff is something the normies don't care about. Me Before You has one of the most despicable premises and most offensive endings ever created, yet it still inexplicably grossed $200 million.

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47 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Dear Evan Hansen is $3.3m

That’s not good, and it’s a theatrical only release. 
 

September has been grim, thankfully it’s nearly over. Hopefully we don’t have any more weeks of only one film doing well. 

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2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

FG and JC are having their great time in this quiet market place like Nobody in April. SC drop this week is a bit harsher than I hoped. SC need to beat BB4L as quickly as possible before October movies come in.    

 

Even with weekly 50%+ drops SC will pass BBL.   It's impossible for it to make less than $10m more off a $13m weekend.  It should finish around $230m

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