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Gavin Feng

Weekend Thread: Dear Evan Hansen $800K THU Previews

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Lol yea that’s not a good number AT ALL. Other than being another dead weekend for theaters (which isn’t ever good for my pay check), only thing that bugs me about this is that DEH flopping is only going to boost Film Twitter’s confidence/arrogance (which is never good) since they’re going to think that it was their pushback against the movie that caused it to flop, and we’re going to start seeing more and more of this negativity surrounding upcoming releases. When in reality, it was a bunch of things that led to these numbers (poor casting aside, you had mediocre reviews, lacklustre buzz, a hard-to-sell premise that isn’t the type of thing people are looking for right now).

 

Although I will say, the fact that this is doing Cats numbers is baffling to me.

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1 hour ago, Dear Eric Hansen said:

Diversity demos were 58% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 8% Black, and 13% Asian/other.

Ah. Finally a film white people turned up to. This is their Black Panther.

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18 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Lol yea that’s not a good number AT ALL. Other than being another dead weekend for theaters (which isn’t ever good for my pay check), only thing that bugs me about this is that DEH flopping is only going to boost Film Twitter’s confidence/arrogance (which is never good) since they’re going to think that it was their pushback against the movie that caused it to flop, and we’re going to start seeing more and more of this negativity surrounding upcoming releases. When in reality, it was a bunch of things that led to these numbers (poor casting aside, you had mediocre reviews, lacklustre buzz, a hard-to-sell premise that isn’t the type of thing people are looking for right now).

 

Although I will say, the fact that this is doing Cats numbers is baffling to me.

If Green Book still winning Best Picture and Joker making a billion didn't humble Film Twitter, I don't think Dear Evan Hansen being a hit was going to make them any less arrogant. They operate in their own reality as much as the people they criticize.

 

Didn't In the Heights have a big PLF share in its opening weekend? That might explain the difference in box office with DEH now.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

I am a little puzzled about DEH's audience score and Cinemascore. I guess maybe if you're familiar with the play you'll be warm to it. I thought it was pretty bad. 

Well most of the people who are watching it the day it comes out are fans of the Broadway show. It kind of makes sense they would be into it.

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Yesterday some folks were talking about what kind of multiplier DEH could get and where it might end up, so this from Deadline's article was noteworthy:

 

"Dear Evan Hansen, I hear, is on a 17-day theatrical window, especially with these numbers."

Edited by KC7
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1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Lol yea that’s not a good number AT ALL. Other than being another dead weekend for theaters (which isn’t ever good for my pay check), only thing that bugs me about this is that DEH flopping is only going to boost Film Twitter’s confidence/arrogance (which is never good) since they’re going to think that it was their pushback against the movie that caused it to flop, and we’re going to start seeing more and more of this negativity surrounding upcoming releases. When in reality, it was a bunch of things that led to these numbers (poor casting aside, you had mediocre reviews, lacklustre buzz, a hard-to-sell premise that isn’t the type of thing people are looking for right now).

 

Although I will say, the fact that this is doing Cats numbers is baffling to me.

Well they needed something after ITH bombed hard and they gave the Pikachu shock face. 

 

I just don't think this movie has enough legs in pop culture to be remembered months from now even in Film Twitter. I mean even Cats, that's easily more memorable for obvious reasons. If anything they'll hop on the Dune train next and mostly move on. 

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2 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Justice for In the Heights!!! How much more would it have made as a theatrical exclusive? There was a limited audience, but HBO Max certainly doesn't help any movie's box office...

 

But really, I thought Dear Evan Hansen was a bit more popular on stage than ITH (longer Broadway run) and is also a theatrical exclusive, so I figured it would do better (at least until recently). The trailer tells you what it's about, but reactions to the Platt casting and the premise have been mixed, at best. As a movie, it had worse reviews, which probably kept away any non-diehards who might have been interested if the reviews had been stronger. I guess we'll see how the legs are.

 

Too bad Sony panicked and moved Venom 2 from this weekend.

Honestly I'm not sure ITH would've substantially made more if it was exclusive. It had good reviews but even the Max numbers IIRC on OW were lukewarm. Like TSS later that summer, sometimes people just don't want to watch something even with marketing or good write-ups. It happens unfortunately. Personally I think something about summer doesn't scream musical for many folks. Would it have done better in the holiday season? 

 

DEH, I think only fans (and Film Twitter) cared about that and even said many of those fans were sharing those Film Twitter quibbles. 

 

Next weekend will be interesting. Three new releases, only one exclusive is Venom 2. Even if the others were exclusive, I don't think the others would be moving the needle. 

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11 hours ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

For sure. DEH like 2.5 vs SC 3.5+ -- I actually don't think DEH will win even with previews rolled in.

Gave you the numbers 9 hours early ;) 

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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It leaked few days back tho.

With the reviews, you might have to pay people to watch it. 

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25 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Gave you the numbers 9 hours early ;) 

Apparently this does give SC the MCU record for days at #1. TA and IW were stopped convincingly by MIB3 and DP2, whereas BP lost to Wrinkle in time by 200k with previews rolled in.

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Congrats to the people who joined the under Cats club. I guess my personal liking of the trailer and songs blinded me to the fact that... yea, this wasn’t going to be a hit.

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54 minutes ago, RRA said:

Honestly I'm not sure ITH would've substantially made more if it was exclusive. It had good reviews but even the Max numbers IIRC on OW were lukewarm. Like TSS later that summer, sometimes people just don't want to watch something even with marketing or good write-ups. It happens unfortunately. Personally I think something about summer doesn't scream musical for many folks. Would it have done better in the holiday season? 

 

DEH, I think only fans (and Film Twitter) cared about that and even said many of those fans were sharing those Film Twitter quibbles. 

 

Next weekend will be interesting. Three new releases, only one exclusive is Venom 2. Even if the others were exclusive, I don't think the others would be moving the needle. 

 But I feel that all the HBO Max movies would have made more as theatrical exclusives: Conjuring 3 opens close to A Quiet Place 2 instead of a $20 million difference in their opening weekends, The Suicide Squad opens over $30 million at least, In the Heights starts at $15-17 million and everything is leggier, because free day-and-date also kills repeat business (at least for theaters).

 

Why wouldn't Godzilla vs Kong have made $150-175 million domestic as a theatrical exclusive? It seems better liked than the last Godzilla movie and it had better legs than most HBO Max releases. IMO the legs would have been even better still as a theatrical exclusive, or at least premium day-and-date. And maybe other HBO Max titles with soft openings and weak multipliers could have risen to "so-so opening with decent legs, underwhelming but not a disastrous total" as exclusives? It's all hypothetical, of course.

 

Mamma Mia and Hairspray did well in the summer, I don't think seasons are really an issue for musical movies so much as the prestige audience for them not fully returning to theaters yet. And bad reviews or limited concepts don't help.

Edited by BoxOfficeFangrl
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