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Eric Riley

VENOM: LET THERE BE CARNAGE WEEKEND THREAD | 90.1M OW! Biggest pandemic opening!

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12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Sony must be kicking themselves for not keeping this on the 24th with that massive PLF share.

 

Or Bond will kick itself for not sliding back when it ends up sharing some PLF showings next weekend, unless they signed a really iron-clad deal for them...

 

If I was a PLF theater, I'd give the 10pm and laters to Venom b/c it's short (so more people might be willing to see it late b/c they still get home at a reasonable time) and a draw for the 18-34s (who are the ones who go late night).  Bond, like many older appealing movies, will be dead at 10pms anyway...

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2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Hot take but I think MOM will be the smallest MCU film next year.

 

Also possible. I think it'll depend a lot on the Spider-Man connection and just how heavy it ties in (could be like an IW to EG thing). Personally I'm going with the following for domestic total....

1. BP:WF
2. DSITMOM
3. The Marvels
4. T: L&T 

 

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4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Or Bond will kick itself for not sliding back when it ends up sharing some PLF showings next weekend, unless they signed a really iron-clad deal for them...

 

If I was a PLF theater, I'd give the 10pm and laters to Venom b/c it's short (so more people might be willing to see it late b/c they still get home at a reasonable time) and a draw for the 18-34s (who are the ones who go late night).  Bond, like many older appealing movies, will be dead at 10pms anyway...

Considering Bond has been steady in the schedule, and was filmed in IMAX, they'll get what they want. 

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41 minutes ago, Eric Soprano said:

I didn't really care for the film, but I feel the biggest issue with Newark was mismarketing and a bit of a failure to understand what people wanted to see. The ads hyped up this up as a look at young Tony Soprano like the movie was all about him. But instead it's largely on characters who never appeared in the show on the first place while Tony's just a side character who we barely follow.

 

This would be like if the Sex and the City movie was from the perspective of Mr. Big instead of Carrie and the rest of the women. It's just going to lead to only hardcore fans getting into it and a lot of casual fans and newcomers disappointed.


It’s about the Moltisanti family that ran the business before Tony though. It’s right there in the title. Moltisanti means Many Saints in Italian. 
 

The marketing might well have been Tony centric but I don’t think that takes anything away from what the movie is and always was from conception.  How else were they meant to sell it to people? 
 

Regardless, as a precursor to the traits Tony follows, it hits all the beats. He couldn’t be any more like his uncle. 
What were they going to do? Have half the movie with us following him going to lessons at school? It’s a gangster movie. 
 

Plus I don’t agree it largely concentrates on characters not in the show. Loads of them are in it. 
 

it’s cool though. Totally respect you didn’t care for it. I thought it was great. Totally captured everything I loved about the show. 

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Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Maybe...or maybe it's Batman...

 

Which wouldn't actually be any of the MCU:)...

 

I should have clarified but I was just referring to the 4 MCU films :) 

As for non-MCU films, I could see the Batman or Avatar 2 taking the total domestic crown from the MCU (though I wouldn't pick either to do so.) We could also have unexpected contenders like Jurassic World: Dominion or Light Year. 

 

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2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Also possible. I think it'll depend a lot on the Spider-Man connection and just how heavy it ties in (could be like an IW to EG thing). Personally I'm going with the following for domestic total....

1. BP:WF
2. DSITMOM
3. The Marvels
4. T: L&T 

 

 

Translation:

 

1) Black Panther 2

2) Dr Strange 2

3) Captain Marvel 2

4) Thor 4

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Bond will finish higher than Black Widow and if it wasn't for HBO Max Matrix almost certainly would too (trailer views are insane). 

 

Because of Chadwick's death and the love for the first, plus the fact that younger and black moviegoers are still showing up, give me Black Panther as the biggest MCU movie next year. I'm sad to say it because of the annoying Cameron fans, but yeah I have Avatar 2 winning the year. That movie's buzz went from overrated to underrated somehow, like it wasn't the biggest movie ever, on FX every two seconds, and a massive ride at Disney now.

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Speaking of, after all the horror this year, HOW did we get to October and we're only gonna have one wide horror release, Halloween Kills, which is a day and date until Oct 29?  

 

Addams Family 2 does not count...and I was told Venom doesn't "count" in the genre either, since we'll call it spooky supers comedy.  But, whether it's technically horror or not, Venom 2 may do better than I thought b/c seasonality will play for its targeted demos...

 

What a weird year...

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7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Maybe...or maybe it's Batman...

 

Which wouldn't actually be any of the MCU:)...

 

That wouldn't surprise me.

 

Batman is more popular typically and I doubt buses of black church ladies are going to push BP2 to 600+m the second time around.

 

The hype just won't be the same.

 

It will still make a ton of money though.

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I'm past the point of predicting MCU movies because I have no finger on the pulse of the MCU people and frankly have no idea what the big hooks are for Thor/Marvels/Strange, but as someone whose biggest hit was a Black Panther > Infinity War club, I can tell you the hype is still very real for Black Panther and people are both hugely curious and ready to pay tribute. I really don't like to talk about tragic death in the context of box office, but are we really going to look at how TDK and Furious 7 did relative to other entries and pretend that it doesn't make a macabre difference?

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Just now, Blankments said:

People on this forum insisting that venom qualifies as horror adjacent is constantly amusing lol, really good way to show you haven’t seen a single scene from these movies 

 

No, I just have an expansive view of horror:)...monster movies which involve eating people are horror adjacent - ask any 5 year old:)...

 

PS - And I saw every scene of Venom and will be seeing every scene of Venom 2 in an hour:)...

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2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

 I really don't like to talk about tragic death in the context of box office, but are we really going to look at how TDK and Furious 7 did relative to other entries and pretend that it doesn't make a macabre difference?

it's different cuz the people who died were in those movies so it's like a morbid "seeing them one last time" thing. this is a black panther movie without the black panther.

Edited by CoolioD1
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6 hours ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

I don't understand what the business argument for the Many Saints of Newark is. Does it have an ultra-low budget or something?

 

We're talking a completely fresh faced lead actor with no track record, great supporting actors but not with massive profiles, a TV writer, a property that hasn't been mainstream for 15 years and a genre that couldn't possibly be more out of the zeitgeist right now.

 

None of which isn't to say it might not be a great film - given the talent involved it could well be - and of course there is a loyal following of sorts which will bring in some business but it does seem a strange project at an odd time (even pre-covid).

 

Great news seemingly for Venom. Not my thing, but looks like they've judged the 90 minute pure adrenalin popcorn rush just right. Legs will be very interesting - intuition says it will struggle to sustain anything given incoming competition and that it's core demo will have rushed out, but it may be that people are just lining up for a release right now.

I mean most of this qualifies for Downton Abbey and that did pretty well. I think the green light makes sense in a pre pandemic world 

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Well, in a sign (good/bad/other), TMobile will be offering $4 Bond tickets through Atom to its entire subscriber base on Tuesday...I guess my kid might get to go (b/c I'll have 3 cheap tickets, so the uninterested can stay home)...

 

Anyway, it will probably pop presales at MTC 1 and 2...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Batman is more popular typically and I doubt buses of black church ladies are going to push BP2 to 600+m the second time around.

 

Doesn't need to do $700M like the first to win the year. Chadwick's death will add a Fast 7 like boost to an already huge movie (people honoring his legacy / curiosity over what's going to happen to BP).

 

Couple in the summer release date, and I'd be pretty surprised if it didn't bag at least $500m (assuming Covid trends continue on their current downward path.)

 

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