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Eric Madrigal

VENOM: LET THERE BE CARNAGE WEEKEND THREAD | 90.1M OW! Biggest pandemic opening!

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would the breaking bad movie have been a hit if it was released in theaters back in 2019? Feels like it was forgotten instantly on Netflix (I'm sure they said 100 million people watched it or whatever). I expect a similar fate for this movie it's gonna be a fun trivia fact in five years "hey did you know there's a sopranos movie too?"

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8 minutes ago, Blankments said:

People on this forum insisting that venom qualifies as horror adjacent is constantly amusing lol, really good way to show you haven’t seen a single scene from these movies 

 

Horror iconography and aesthetics. Not horror.

 

Big teeth creepy CGI monstery man who wants to eat people is horror iconography.

The posters featuring the big teeth monster man are horror iconography. 

Man hearing growly deep voices that talk to him is horror iconography.

Convict turns into malfeasant monster is horror iconography.

 

They aren't horror, I was literally part of the conversation arguing against Venom being horror. But it flagrantly uses horror iconography and tropes.

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Give me a good weekend breakdown fam. I am thinking 37-25-17 for a 79M OW. Feels a bit high maybe? Or is the October record possible?

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3 hours ago, YourMother said:

I feel unlike SS1, Venom actually had an audience that liked the film despite reviews, as well as a shorter timeframe from film 1 to 2. Even if we got a sequel similar to the original, it’d probably still have a large drop.

You dont make $700M+ without china if some of the audience doesnt like a film. It got the same cinemascore as TSS and legs didnt collapse at the box office like TSS or BVS. The movie wasnt good, but just like venom there absolutely was elements that the audience responded to.

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12 hours ago, Blankments said:

I think Thor is rather easily #2 of the marvel movies next year after Black Panther. Great date, everyone adored Ragnarok, and the guardians being there give it a bit of boost too.

 

After the controversies surrounding Pratt and Gunn, I think Feige put the Guardians there to reboost their popularity by piggybacking on Thor instead of the other way round. L&T might actually outgross GOTG3 WW if the difference in number of open markets is not substantial. Still think MoM will be bigger than L&T, though that depends on how many actors playing various alternate universe versions of their Marvel characters appear in the film. 

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I think doctor strange 2 will be bigger than marvels/thor as well. strange coming off spider-man w/ elizabeth olsen coming off wandavision. and marvel seems to be really hyping up the multiverse stuff so i assume it'll be a big deal movie. plus w/ god raimi it'll be the best of the four we know this.

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Venom is definitely being lowballed for the weekend. The theater I'm seeing it at in IMAX today is already doing extremely well so the Saturday number is at least staying flat with the regular Friday. Astounding numbers either way.

 

The other two openers met expectations, all things considered. Curious how well Many Saints is doing on HBO Max, since most of the fans would certainly rather watch it there to begin with.

 

Shang-Chi's drop is acceptable given Venom's arrival, while Dear Evan Hansen is officially a pathetic flop that should serve as a cautionary tale about the potential risks that come with adapting any Tony-winning hit into a movie at this point.

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17 minutes ago, Blankments said:

I mean most of this qualifies for Downton Abbey and that did pretty well. I think the green light makes sense in a pre pandemic world 

 

I understand your comparison to a degree. But would point out Downton Abbey's last episode was Xmas day, 2015 and the film came out in 2019. Less than 4 years.

 

TMSON is coming out 14 years after the last Sopranos episode. That's a decade difference.

 

EDIT: Oh, and The Downton Abbey film had the Downton Abbey cast in. Which is a pretty massive difference.

 

Considering in 1999 when Sopranos came out and attracting its first audiences we were in recent memory of mob films being mainstream box office juggernauts. Meanwhile in 2017 the most famous mob-film director of all time had to go to Netflix to get a budget for his massive get-the-gang-back-together movie and amid lavished critical praise it landed with such a relative shrug with general audiences that even the Oscars which had very openly been prepping an open top bus parade for it gave up on it.

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7 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Give me a good weekend breakdown fam. I am thinking 37-25-17 for a 79M OW. Feels a bit high maybe? Or is the October record possible?

37-28.5-19.5 for 85M. Saturday may be a bit conservative based on keyser’s early data. I think Oct record is out of reach.

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6 hours ago, Chicago said:

Maybe if they wanted a bit more buck but I'm happy they released the flop they did as it was far better. It's also sorted out their damage control on the property so even though it's a financial disappointment, atleast the franchise is no longer tarnished and can likely.

 

The problem with SS is it tried to be a serious movie yet came across as bad. Aside from the main 3, none of the characters were fun or interesting and it's really seemed like they tried to mimic the first GOTG success with a random playlist of classic songs which had no bearing on the films story to the point of it being cringe. Venom new what it was and treated itself more as a comedy allowing the audience to be far more forgiving for its shortcommings. It also didn't have the immence hype and the brilliant trailers SS had to build high expectations.

I thought TSS was completley awful and audiences didnt seem to respond much to it so I am not sure how it sorted out the damage control with a historically bad box office run. Sure some of the audience really loves it, but I would say an equal amount didnt care for it. Also for Venom, Tom Hardy knew it was a comedy, the director didnt. So it was a weird frankenstein film where Tom Hardy made one film and the other parts were played straight. The sequel seems to have fixed that though I havent watched yet.

 

I am not defending SS, it's a bad film. But there was elements and characters I enjoyed and I would have rather they just took those and made a better film. TSS, like WW84, I dont think there was single enjoyable moment for me and it killed what little interest I had left in DC. What is even the point of following DC when they constantly just change everything and reboot and twist and not follow up. MCU will take a bad film like dark world but still make your investment worth it by tying future films into it and building off it. 

 

Edited by Dominic Draper
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Interesting takes on the MCU rankings for next year.

 

I'd have gone with

MofMadness

Wakanda Forever

Marvels

Thor 4

But that's a prediction for worldwide. I'm not in the US so can't get the flavour there. Though yeah I suppose there's a good chance BP2 tops it.

 

I agree with the poster above that is predicting Avatar 2 as biggest overall. It will find a way to distinguish itself and be an event. I have no interest in the movie myself but I'm not betting against Cameron. 

 

I get the feeling Batman will do well in absolute terms, but will do surprisingly underwhelmingly in relative terms (Think AS-M). But that may be totally off base.

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6 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

I understand your comparison to a degree. But would point out Downton Abbey's last episode was Xmas day, 2015 and the film came out in 2019. Less than 4 years.

 

TMSON is coming out 14 years after the last Sopranos episode. That's a decade difference.

 

EDIT: Oh, and The Downton Abbey film had the Downton Abbey cast in. Which is a pretty massive difference.

 

Considering in 1999 when Sopranos came out and attracting its first audiences we were in recent memory of mob films being mainstream box office juggernauts. Meanwhile in 2017 the most famous mob-film director of all time had to go to Netflix to get a budget for his massive get-the-gang-back-together movie and amid lavished critical praise it landed with such a relative shrug with general audiences that even the Oscars which had very openly been prepping an open top bus parade for it gave up on it.

That decade difference is a clue there. Nostalgia is a huge selling point, so Warner was likely banking on Sopranos nostalgia, which is pretty potent. And it wasn't like the series remained unpopular, especially after HBO Now/HBO Max made it an easier show to watch and stream, and probably didn't cost that much to make, so it's understandable why they would want to give it a shot. And while Netflix metrics are hazy and weird, Irishman still landed as one of Netflix's most-watched movies and one of their biggest overall hits in 2019.

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I just realized Naomie Harris has prominent roles in both this week's and next week's #1 movies. Probably one of the few people to benefit from the COVID delays since both of these movies were supposed to come out at different points last year originally heh.

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8 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

37-28.5-19.5 for 85M. Saturday may be a bit conservative based on keyser’s early data. I think Oct record is out of reach.

I think more like 37.25-30.84-20 for 88. It would have to go insane to beat Joker, pretty much impossible from that Friday. 

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I think after the exceptional trailer for Suicide Squad people were disappointed but with Venom audiences were pleasantly surprised. 

 

That trajectory makes all the difference in the world for the sequels.

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Yeah I kinda feel the Avatar fandom is one of the most hidden cause I still don't see them everywhere like other fandoms but I'm not betting against Cameron either.

 

Once upon a time people claimed Titanic and Avatar were going to flop.

 

Spoiler: They didn't.

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32 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

would the breaking bad movie have been a hit if it was released in theaters back in 2019? Feels like it was forgotten instantly on Netflix (I'm sure they said 100 million people watched it or whatever). I expect a similar fate for this movie it's gonna be a fun trivia fact in five years "hey did you know there's a sopranos movie too?"

Probably would've opened to 35-40M and finished O/U 100M. If you took Better Call Saul's average cable viewership around that point and used the average ticket price it'd be a high 20s opening.

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12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I just realized Naomie Harris has prominent roles in both this week's and next week's #1 movies. Probably one of the few people to benefit from the COVID delays since both of these movies were supposed to come out at different points last year originally heh.

 

Happens weirdly often with actors where it just works out like that.

 

Similar things happened when we had Hailee Stenfeld ruling Christmas with Bumblebee and Into the Spiderverse and with The Summer of Brolin with Deadpool 2, Sicario 2 and Infinity War. Hugo Weaving has had some major overlaps too given his tendency towards minor roles in massive franchises.

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