VENOM: LET THERE BE CARNAGE WEEKEND THREAD | 90.1M OW! Biggest pandemic opening!

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, Eric Soprano said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-dune/

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
10/8/2021	No Time to Die	$70,000,000 – $95,000,000	+11%	$175,000,000 – $275,000,000	+7%	4,000+	MGM / United Artists Releasing
10/15/2021	Halloween Kills	$40,000,000 – $55,000,000	+7%	$80,000,000 – $110,000,000	+6%	3,950	Universal Pictures
10/15/2021	The Last Duel	$5,000,000 – $12,000,000	-15%	$15,000,000 – $45,000,000	-15%	3,000	Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/22/2021	Dune	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000		$85,000,000 – $130,000,000			Warner Bros. Pictures
10/22/2021	The French Dispatch	not currently tracked		not currently tracked			Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/22/2021	Ron’s Gone Wrong	$7,000,000 – $14,000,000		$40,000,000 – $68,000,000			Disney / 20th Century Studios

 

So, when you get one movie wildly wrong, I don't think you overcorrect with the rest:)...

[john2000]

https://deadline.com/2021/10/no-time-to-die-opening-weekend-uk-international-box-office-daniel-craig-james-bond-1234847227/

 

 

‘No Time To Die’ Clocks $22M Through Two Days Offshore, Sets Multiple Records – International Box Office

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Inceptionzq said:

Nah, I think Wed+Thurs can do 8M-9M and a 9x multiplier gets it there. 

 

I'd like to see that for the GA to come out for a movie that needs some past knowledge of movies gone before to fully enjoy...and one where the rabid fan base has been dying to see it, so the previews will be a higher weight for the overall weekend...

 

And, of course, that still relies on an older, less diverse demo (although probably just as male) to get its big box office...

[Eric Duncan]

12 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm not saying it'll be a big breakout or anything, but weird to see Last Duel tracking drop when you can't watch a football game without getting an ad every commercial. It is def marketing itself like a big movie.

Just because it's getting a lot of marketing doesn't necessarily mean that the marketing is effective. If anything, it could be a case where Disney sees internal tracking not being so hot and are just spamming more ads to try and boost awareness and interest.

[Inceptionzq]

23 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I'd like to see that for the GA to come out for a movie that needs some past knowledge of movies gone before to fully enjoy...and one where the rabid fan base has been dying to see it, so the previews will be a higher weight for the overall weekend...

 

And, of course, that still relies on an older, less diverse demo (although probably just as male) to get its big box office...

Hopefully cases will continue falling and booster shots will give that demo enough of a sense of safety to return.
 

Mostly going off of presales. I forgot everyone else was adding Wed and Thurs numbers though, so I’ll actually say 7-8M. But 70M is still possible.

[Menor the Destroyer]

36 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I'd like to see that for the GA to come out for a movie that needs some past knowledge of movies gone before to fully enjoy...and one where the rabid fan base has been dying to see it, so the previews will be a higher weight for the overall weekend...

 

And, of course, that still relies on an older, less diverse demo (although probably just as male) to get its big box office...

Spectre did like 13x. Bond isn't a preview-driven franchise. 

[TwoMisfits]

30 minutes ago, Menor said:

Spectre did like 13x. Bond isn't a preview-driven franchise. 

 

Yes, and that was when its OW audience was 35% over 50 on OW...

 

As someone mentioned in previous weekend threads, that percent fan base should now probably have aged up to be almost 40% for OW, if they do come out for Bond next weekend...https://deadline.com/2015/11/spectre-the-peanuts-movie-james-bond-box-office-1201610575/

 

I don't believe Bond is gonna draw that way next weekend (older adults have yet to show for pretty much anything, but I guess there's no time like the present to start:)...but if it doesn't go huge in that demo, it doesn't get a 13x...

[Eric Duncan]

I mean folks like keyser have their presales data looking fairly spread out from day to day, and all us trackers have seen strong data for the movie. I have a lot of concerns for future adult-oriented releases like Last Duel or Gucci or West Side, but I feel confident in saying Bond will be the exception to the rule for this demographic, and less than 70M and/or less than 9x preview:OW ratio would surprise me at this point.

[filmlover]

The Last Duel is feeling more and more like a flop despite the starpower tbh. Tough sell subject matter (even with the promise of some spectacle) + acceptable but unspectacular reviews + a main target audience of adults that still hasn't returned to multiplexes in full force = not much of an audience for a movie like this in the current environment.

[TwoMisfits]

28 minutes ago, Eric Soprano said:

I mean folks like keyser have their presales data looking fairly spread out from day to day, and all us trackers have seen strong data for the movie. I have a lot of concerns for future adult-oriented releases like Last Duel or Gucci or West Side, but I feel confident in saying Bond will be the exception to the rule for this demographic, and less than 70M and/or less than 9x preview:OW ratio would surprise me at this point.

 

Tracking has it about $7M in previews...9x is $63M...within the original $56M-$85M tracking...but not the new one...

 

I'd be surprised if it goes under $50M...but under $70M would not surprise me, knowing the normal demo, the movie length, the showing/screen limitations (due to Venom and the length of the movie), and the previous knowledge needed for movie payoff...

 

It's why I said $50M+ is a good number (where ever that lands, although $63M seems like a decent pick), but one that will shock and disappoint the whole board...and now tracking going to $70M+ is gonna compound that disappointment when nothing really changed except that a supers movie again got an amazing theatrical clear out and booking and is taking advantage as a very, very GA friendly and timely property...

 

 

[CJohn]

No Time To Die about to become the biggest pandemic OW here. It will still open well below Spectre.

[marveldcfox]

35 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Last Duel is feeling more and more like a flop despite the starpower tbh. Tough sell subject matter (even with the promise of some spectacle) + acceptable but unspectacular reviews + a main target audience of adults that still hasn't returned to multiplexes in full force = not much of an audience for a movie like this in the current environment.

Ridley Scott hasn't made a genuinely liked movie in ages. Too divisive of late.

[Cmasterclay]

People are hyped af for the new Bond. It'll do fine and in a way Venom numbers will actually help Bond because it will influence the news cycle to do a big "theaters are back!" round again and make people think it is more okay to go back.

 

Halloween Kills is really ramping up marketing near me. No other big horror movie in October plus the fact that nobody has Peacock could keep it pretty high. 

 

Do we have any Venom tracking for today? I can tell you here it's going crazy - higher than Widow's opening day or F9, biggest of pandemic so far. Seems to be blowing up in mid-sized markets more than NYC or LA.

[cookie]

1 minute ago, marveldcfox said:

Ridley Scott hasn't made a genuinely liked movie in ages. Too divisive of late.

I mean, The Martain wasn't that long ago...

[CJohn]

I think No Time To Die will open quite well. I have high hopes for it. 70M baby.

[CJohn]

This thread is dead as hell. Under 65M OW for Venom?

[keysersoze123]

I have bond opening at 80m. It's PS has started to accelerate for sure. Plus I expect it to do much better than SH movies over the weekend.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, CJ Sarandos said:

This thread is dead as hell. Under 65M OW for Venom?

Obviously. With such poor walkups as Venom has had, it's clearly going to be much more frontloaded than Black Widow. Even 60 million will be tough. 

[Porthos]

So Dune is getting Thr previews after all.

 

lol WB. 

 

...

 

(also lol me as that means I'm probably tracking it )

Edited October 1, 2021 by Porthos

[poweranimals]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Obviously. With such poor walkups as Venom has had, it's clearly going to be much more frontloaded than Black Widow. Even 60 million will be tough. 

Wait. What? Weren't people just saying it's doing well a couple hours ago?