NO TIME TO DIE WEEKEND THREAD | Bond 56M, Venom 32M

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, cookie said:

IDK if spy movies are popular with young people in general. Fallout had more than half its OW audience be over 35.

More than half doesn't matter (even MCU movies often are in the 60% over 25 range) but looking it up Fallout was 74% over 25. Not that much better than Bond movies. You may be right that spy movies just won't draw younger audiences in general, as M:I at least has the exceptional action sequences that would make it a bigger draw. 

[picores]

60m OW and 180m DOM would be a solid result for Bond. I know Spectre did not hit 3x multiplier but it fell close enough to think NNTD has a good shot of doing it after a lower OW.

[Legion Again]

The only spy movie to draw the youngs will be BW2. The powah of Pugh

Edited October 9, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, picores said:

60m OW and 180m DOM would be a solid result for Bond. I know Spectre did not hit 3x multiplier but it fell close enough to think NNTD has a good shot of doing it after a lower OW.

 

With a $16.5 Friday it would about a 30% Friday to Sat jump and less than a 30% Sun decrease to hit $60m

 

 

[Legion Again]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

With a $16.5 Friday it would about a 30% Friday to Sat jump and less than a 30% Sun decrease to hit $60m

 

 

Well, one of those should happen.

[John Marston]

55m opening and maybe 150m domestic if lucky. Terrible no matter how you slice it 

[Legion Again]

How is AF2 looking?

[Legion Again]

On 10/7/2021 at 3:54 PM, Let There Be Legion said:

Also the weekend forecast is out from BOP, at 70-… 105????

 

I appreciate the work that Shawn and co do, but they have been really out to lunch on the last few blockbusters. SC 45-60 when it was pretty much locked for 60+. V2 60-80 when it was pretty clearly looking at more like 70-90. Now NTTD with a massively wide range — that still has a good chance not to include the true number.

Anyway, yeah. Might want to start weighting PS behavior higher.

[titanic2187]

11 hours ago, SLAM! said:

Hopefully No Time To Die exceeds expectations. I prefer the American box office shaken, not stirred.

NA market need excitement from overperformer more than ever ,instead of some business-as-usual run like this one. Sadly there are dozens of conformist here with their loser mentality.   

[Legion Again]

NA market got excitement from an overperformer literally 5 days ago.

[titanic2187]

Just now, Let There Be Legion said:

NA market got excitement from an overperformer literally 5 days ago.

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Can’t believe No Time To Die will be 2nd lowest Craig opener. I’m not complaining but I did think 70 would happen since reviews were fine and it had novelty of being his last one

 

Casino Royale- 40.8m (2nd place behind Happy Feet. Weekend before Thanksgiving)

Solace- 67.5m

Skyfall- 88.3m

Spectre- 70.4m

 

60-70m is probably range for spy movies in general, though?

Mission Impossible Fallout- 61m

Mission Impossible Rogue Nation- 55.5m

[Ryan Reynolds]

14 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Can’t believe No Time To Die will be 2nd lowest Craig opener. I’m not complaining but I did think 70 would happen since reviews were fine and it had novelty of being his last one

 

Casino Royale- 40.8m (2nd place behind Happy Feet. Weekend before Thanksgiving)

Solace- 67.5m

Skyfall- 88.3m

Spectre- 70.4m

 

60-70m is probably range for spy movies in general, though?

Mission Impossible Fallout- 61m

Mission Impossible Rogue Nation- 55.5m

no, spy movies make much less, those are exceptions along with Bourne

[charlie Jatinder]

Why are y'all so....

 

NTTD opening 60M or so has nothing to do with the market in general. It's doing what I expected for a ageing franchise, decline from previous one.

 

If anything, holdovers are doing pretty well. I think SC will be dropping less than 20% for weekend. TAF 2 looks like 2.7M FRI, weekend be 10M+ mostly.

 

Overall market will be 2nd best weekend (FSS) Post CoVID at $110M vs $117M last weekend.

Edited October 9, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[WrathOfHan]

Hey, so while we're all in here tonight raging about the end of the adult blockbuster... come submit your lists in my countdown

 

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

43 minutes ago, Menor said:

More than half doesn't matter (even MCU movies often are in the 60% over 25 range) but looking it up Fallout was 74% over 25. Not that much better than Bond movies. You may be right that spy movies just won't draw younger audiences in general, as M:I at least has the exceptional action sequences that would make it a bigger draw. 

It would be interesting if we had a newer big budgeted spy movie franchise to compare but because Bond has defined the spy movie so much and how on point and insane the Mission Impossible films have been in the last 10 years I can imagine it's hard to come up with something unique.

 

If The Gray Man was theatrical would be very curious how the demographics would have broken down.

 

[Eric Atreides]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You'd think people would get tired of quipping CGI poop monsters and buildings exploding eventually... but they don't. I like them as much as everyone else (obviously) but the idea of a 150 min Eternals is exhausting. I'd like to go to the theater and watch adults have a conversation without every cut lasting shorter than 5 seconds

 

Go to the theaters and the trailers for Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley... these do nothing for them??

I talked about this earlier in the year, but audiences are definitely way more complicit in just watching the same franchises and are the least adventurous they've ever been. Online film circles are full of stans who only talk about Marvel and make fancams for Agatha or whoever on the daily. People are applauding the idea of 300+ Star Wars shows a year. 95% of non-franchise releases barely make a dent in the cultural conversation, even when they have good reviews/a good campaign behind them. Even worse is that a lot of films like Ford v Ferrari or Little Women probably would have grossed way more if they came out in 2007. I'm sure COVID isn't helping out with this stuff either for a variety of reasons.

 

Pretty bleak stuff, because there seems to be no sign of change at all here in terms of the masses. Just gotta enjoy what you can in terms of adult-driven titles I suppose and just hope execs give a few of them a chance.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

8 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

I talked about this earlier in the year, but audiences are definitely way more complicit in just watching the same franchises and are the least adventurous they've ever been. Online film circles are full of stans who only talk about Marvel and make fancams for Agatha or whoever on the daily. People are applauding the idea of 300+ Star Wars shows a year. 95% of non-franchise releases barely make a dent in the cultural conversation, even when they have good reviews/a good campaign behind them. Even worse is that a lot of films like Ford v Ferrari or Little Women probably would have grossed way more if they came out in 2007. I'm sure COVID isn't helping out with this stuff either for a variety of reasons.

 

Pretty bleak stuff, because there seems to be no sign of change at all here in terms of the masses. Just gotta enjoy what you can in terms of adult-driven titles I suppose and just hope execs give a few of them a chance.

Very bleak. It’s like capitalism is eating itself alive and COVID expedited already decreasing theatrical viewing habits. Usually we got about 3 big adult hits per year. 2019 was a rare exception with 1917, Knives Out, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Little Women and Ford v Ferrari but 4 were Oscar films. And the Knives Out sequels are going streaming lol. I’m just going to enjoy theaters while I can for every type of movie. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Well non franchise content still has the ability to capture the cultural conversation but it's mostly TV these days such as what's happening with Squid Game.

 

Obviously studios are now looking to expand their IP into TV so even that may change soon.

 

But I don't think NTTD's performance changes the conversation in any way.

Edited October 9, 2021 by Darth Lehnsherr

[John Marston]

Forgot there is technically a holiday on Monday.Maybe that can help NTTD deal over 60m but i doubt it