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Eric Atreides

NO TIME TO DIE WEEKEND THREAD | Bond 56M, Venom 32M

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2 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Well non franchise content still has the ability to capture the cultural conversation but it's mostly TV these days such as what's happening with Squid Game.

 

Obviously studios are now looking to expand their IP into TV so even that may change soon.

 

But I don't think NTTD's performance changes the conversation in any way.

NTTD doesn’t change the conversation. Only expand upon the fact that older audiences are seemingly still theater hesitant. The films thriving theatrically are young aiming franchise IPs or resemble them (Free Guy) with broadly diverse appeal across demos 

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2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You'd think people would get tired of quipping CGI poop monsters and buildings exploding eventually... but they don't. I like them as much as everyone else (obviously) but the idea of a 150 min Eternals is exhausting. I'd like to go to the theater and watch adults have a conversation without every cut lasting shorter than 5 seconds

 

Go to the theaters and the trailers for Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley... these do nothing for them??

If you ask any forester or any ecologist, they will tell you a healthy forest is not only about the canopy level but the diversity of plant and animals within the forest.

 

In this case, blockbusters are the canopy and moviegoers are the sunlight. Sadly all the "sunlight" are now going into canopy and the ecosystem diversity is dying. People emphasis the racial diversity nowadays aren't just some PC stunt, the diversity really matter if you look at how the natural world work. Theater need a diverse range of products. Netflix thrive without single SH brand thanks to their diversity in content. 

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I give up. Eric is right. Nolan's Oppenheimer movie will probably be the last major adult targeted blockbuster that isn't a superhero or expansive universe (Star Wars, Monsters) IP with a budget over 100million for several years. 

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35 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

I talked about this earlier in the year, but audiences are definitely way more complicit in just watching the same franchises and are the least adventurous they've ever been. Online film circles are full of stans who only talk about Marvel and make fancams for Agatha or whoever on the daily. People are applauding the idea of 300+ Star Wars shows a year. 95% of non-franchise releases barely make a dent in the cultural conversation, even when they have good reviews/a good campaign behind them. Even worse is that a lot of films like Ford v Ferrari or Little Women probably would have grossed way more if they came out in 2007. I'm sure COVID isn't helping out with this stuff either for a variety of reasons.

 

Pretty bleak stuff, because there seems to be no sign of change at all here in terms of the masses. Just gotta enjoy what you can in terms of adult-driven titles I suppose and just hope execs give a few of them a chance.

 

Gonna be awesome when The Last Duel opens to like 15m next weekend.

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I would give anything to never have to hear about another fucking Marvel or DC movie again. It's all anyone shares or talks about in casual conversation anymore outside of diehard movie fans like us. All casual moviegoers on my feeds want to talk about anymore is mid credit scenes and ranking their favorite MCU or DCU movies. It's so boring. I've been on the train that Bond is a sadly falling franchise anyway and 62-75m OW would be just fine for this, but 55m OW is just so fucking depressing man and really is concerning that nothing that isn't a superhero movie or some sort of quippy, superhero aping IP (Star Wars, Fast, etc) can get oxygen anymore. Mods feels free to delete this post if it is violating franchise wars stuff, but I just feel like Howard Beale in Network everytime a friend shares some ScreenRant article about a superhero movie's Easter Eggs - its all people seem to want anymore.

 

Would be a great opening weekend for a Bourne/Mission Impossible movie though, so maybe the perspective is just all wacked.

Edited by Cmasterclay
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Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 2?

For what it's worth I think Matrix would be heading to 250m and Dune to 140m if they didn't have HBO Max, an auxillary fact of the pandemic.

 

I don't think people are staying home because of COVID-19 at all, by the way. I think people that wanted to see Bond, saw Bond. It's not the health fears of the pandemic hurting movies anymore. It's that COVID accelerated a trend that makes it so only superhero movies and CGI-filled, quippy cinematic universes like Fast and Star Wars can get any oxygen anymore. COVID simply brought the inevitable reality of 2026 to bear on 2021. It changed viewing habits, release methods, all of that, and made it so only the superhero stuff can breathe. 

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16 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I give up. Eric is right. Nolan's Oppenheimer movie will probably be the last major adult targeted blockbuster that isn't a superhero or expansive universe (Star Wars, Monsters) IP with a budget over 100million for several years. 

for theatrical maybe, due to Streaming Wars, Netflix overpays for everything

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1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

For what it's worth I think Matrix would be heading to 250m and Dune to 140m if they didn't have HBO Max, an auxillary fact of the pandemic.

 

I don't think people are staying home because of COVID-19 at all, by the way. I think people that wanted to see Bond, saw Bond. It's not the health fears of the pandemic hurting movies anymore. It's that COVID accelerated a trend that makes it so only superhero movies and CGI-filled, quippy cinematic universes like Fast and Star Wars can get any oxygen anymore. COVID simply brought the inevitable reality of 2026 to bear on 2021. It changed viewing habits, release methods, all of that, and made it so only the superhero stuff can breathe. 

Dune 150M sure but Matrix 250, IDK. Seems high. I know you mean non HBO Max release, even with that I meant.

 

I think its easier to blame audience and to think that MCU got it easy. MCU started from nothing and made itself what it is today in time and care for story and characters. The problem is the non-MCU IPs or original films aren't of great quality now days. May be its catch 22, where studios think people don't come for newer stuff while audience think not much interesting stuff being made.

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17 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

That would be amazing but it’s probably likelier to finish with 15m domestic.

 

A medieval film with Affleck, Damon and Driver should open to 15m but…

 

15m would still be bad because it looks like a big budget movie?  They'll be able to blame it on COVID though even if a lot of it has to do with modern audiences.  The post Venice screening reactions from critics on twitter in the last week have been quite good, even very good with a number calling it a throwback to the 90s/early 00s "prestigious" blockbusters such as Gladiator and Master & Commander with a procedural take on it.  Its amazing someone is letting Scott do a big budget Napoleon Bonaparte war movie next.

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I was talking about this with another board member so I won't take credit, but once we get past 2024....what in the world is left to breakout big beyond Marvel and DC movies? We aren't creating big new or even recently revived franchises. Jurassic World is going to be huge, but done next year. Indiana Jones, Matrix, and Top Gun are one offs for next year. Mission Impossible is done by 2023. Fast 10 is supposed to be the finale. Lord of the Rings is a TV show. Harry Potter is fucked five ways to Sunday. Dune probably isn't getting a sequel and even if it does it will only get one. Bond and Star Trek are old white people franchises that will settle in low 50s OW. John Wick, Sonic, Bad Boys, and Quiet Place are okay, but they'll be like 45m openers, not huge hits. Franchises like POTC and Ghostbusters are dead as a door nail. QT is pretty much retired and Marty and Spielberg are frankly pretty old. Nolan and Peele movies will make money, but for how long? So what's left, to be a big 75m OW hit, once Fast concludes in 2024, that is not a superhero movie? The occasional Star Wars movie or the Avatar pipedream? Disney live action remakes of Frozen and shit? If that's really the case, every studio outside Disney and the streamers might as well just shut it down outside of WB and Sony's superhero stuff. 

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Feel like I want to say before I head to bed that I feel kind of bad for bringing down the mood and going off-course with my little rant and I'm sorry about that. I just really wanted to vent about this past year (and the past couple for that matter) and how Marvel's really the only thing that's been delivering in terms of grosses these past couple months, and I found the perfect opportunity.

I also want to clarify that while I'm annoyed and sad at how lopsided grosses have been the past couple years and how Marvel/Disney has taken too much of the lion's share, I'm not against anybody who likes these movies nor do I think your enjoyment of them is wrong. I understand the appeal, but know that I'm not trying to go after you or trying to start any fights. I'm just expressing concerns and blurting out some issues and troubles I've been having with the industry for a while. :)

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3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I was talking about this with another board member so I won't take credit, but once we get past 2024....what in the world is left to breakout big beyond Marvel and DC movies? We aren't creating big new or even recently revived franchises. Jurassic World is going to be huge, but done next year. Indiana Jones, Matrix, and Top Gun are one offs for next year. Mission Impossible is done by 2023. Fast 10 is supposed to be the finale. Lord of the Rings is a TV show. Harry Potter is fucked five ways to Sunday. Dune probably isn't getting a sequel and even if it does it will only get one. Bond and Star Trek are old white people franchises that will settle in low 50s OW. John Wick, Sonic, Bad Boys, and Quiet Place are okay, but they'll be like 45m openers, not huge hits. QT is pretty much retired and Marty and Spielberg are frankly pretty old. Nolan and Peele movies will make money, but for how long? So what's left, to be a big 75m OW hit, once Fast concludes in 2024, that is not a superhero movie? The occasional Star Wars movie or the Avatar pipedream? Disney live action remakes of Frozen and shit? If that's really the case, every studio outside Disney and the streamers might as well just shut it down outside of WB and Sony's superhero stuff. 

I agree with pretty much everything you're saying, but Dune is absolutely getting that sequel at this point. So I disagree with your point there

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1 minute ago, Eric Safin said:

Feel like I want to say before I head to bed that I feel kind of bad for bringing down the mood and going off-course with my little rant and I'm sorry about that. I just really wanted to vent about this past year (and the past couple for that matter) and how Marvel's really the only thing that's been delivering in terms of grosses these past couple months, and I found the perfect opportunity.

I also want to clarify that while I'm annoyed and sad at how lopsided grosses have been the past couple years and how Marvel/Disney has taken too much of the lion's share, I'm not against anybody who likes these movies nor do I think your enjoyment of them is wrong. I understand the appeal, but know that I'm not trying to go after you or trying to start any fights. I'm just expressing concerns and blurting out some issues and troubles I've been having with the industry for a while. :)

I'm glad you shared because, while I would never hate on anyone for their personal choices, I have this long-held simmering anger at the audience and the whole situation that you frankly crystalized for me.

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1 minute ago, Pinacolada said:

I agree with pretty much everything you're saying, but Dune is absolutely getting that sequel at this point. So I disagree with your point there

Your lips to God's ears and you may well be right, but even if they release that in 2023 and it makes 160m domestic....what then? It's dead in the water outside a TV spinoff. Not the new LOTR or Star Wars to be actual competition. 

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20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Next Mission Impossible will open close to $70M+. If it is marketed as last MI movie may be bigger than $80M+.

Agree that MI7 will do better than Bond is doing this weekend but it won't be marketed as the last as they have already announced MI8 ages ago. 

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