NO TIME TO DIE WEEKEND THREAD | Bond 56M, Venom 32M

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Nolan is only 2nd director that guarantees $500M WW, so...

I am not denying that. Even then…Other than Hateful 8, Tarantino has a mighty worldwide pull and constantly works with movie stars to justify a large budget unreserved for dramas. 300m guaranteed with him and unlike Nolan, without luxury of IMAX, China etc

 

Hollywood- 142.5m DOM/374.5m WW 

Django- 162.8m DOM/426m WW

Basterds- 120.5m DOM/321.4m WW

 

The point is, studios should take the gamble on auteur directors. While Dragon Tattoo underperformed, Fincher bounced back with Gone Girl which did 167m DOM/369m WW. But what happened after that? Studios refused so now he’s at Netflix 

[Eric Duncan]

@Cmasterclay I know I said I was going to bed, but I did at least want to respond to your recent post. And I guess if I could throw my hat into the breakouts post-2024, I do feel mildly confident, even if it is still under the nostalgic IP issue I've been having. I feel confident Jurassic World will continue on after Dominion. There's just too much money in both tickets and toys to abandon after the third movie. Maybe we'll get another soft reboot post-Pratt and BDH, but Jurassic should still live on.

 

Avatar is also one I'm super confident will be a huge deal. I know the Cameron stans can be annoying, but the dude knows how to make a crowdpleaser, and I'm sure the storyline and tech he has for all those sequels will be mindblowing stuff that will get everybody hyped again and shut up the "no cultural impact" crowd. I'm sure Disney will also strongarm the man into spin-offs and prequels and stuff.

 

And there's still animation studios that will always pump out original movies and new franchises. Even outside of Disney and Pixar, Illumination and Dreamworks and Sony are able to get big new franchises out that kids love, albeit at a smaller scale compared to Disney. I'm sure we'll also get like an Inside Out 2 or another big animated sequel down the line that can make big bucks.

 

And while Fantastic Beasts and Rowling aren't helping, I still think Harry Potter is a big deal. The theme park rides still do great and they play on cable all the time. A big Force Awakens-style legacyquel with the original trio returning would do massive numbers.

 

But yeah, a lot of this stuff are still Disney titles which doesn't fix the whole "audiences only care about Disney/Marvel" issue. But hey, take what you can get I suppose.

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

You'd think people would get tired of quipping CGI poop monsters and buildings exploding eventually

I mean… I suppose you would think that. But I wouldn’t 😛 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

16 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I was talking about this with another board member so I won't take credit, but once we get past 2024....what in the world is left to breakout big beyond Marvel and DC movies? We aren't creating big new or even recently revived franchises. Jurassic World is going to be huge, but done next year. Indiana Jones, Matrix, and Top Gun are one offs for next year. Mission Impossible is done by 2023. Fast 10 is supposed to be the finale. Lord of the Rings is a TV show. Harry Potter is fucked five ways to Sunday. Dune probably isn't getting a sequel and even if it does it will only get one. Bond and Star Trek are old white people franchises that will settle in low 50s OW. John Wick, Sonic, Bad Boys, and Quiet Place are okay, but they'll be like 45m openers, not huge hits. Franchises like POTC and Ghostbusters are dead as a door nail. QT is pretty much retired and Marty and Spielberg are frankly pretty old. Nolan and Peele movies will make money, but for how long? So what's left, to be a big 75m OW hit, once Fast concludes in 2024, that is not a superhero movie? The occasional Star Wars movie or the Avatar pipedream? Disney live action remakes of Frozen and shit? If that's really the case, every studio outside Disney and the streamers might as well just shut it down outside of WB and Sony's superhero stuff. 

I mentioned Knives Out earlier... which ties into your great point. Respected director Rian Johnson is given opportunity to do something original with Knives Out. It pays off. Big time. Franchise potential. But what happens? The sequels go to Netflix. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Let There Be Legion said:

I mean… I suppose you would think that. But I wouldn’t 😛 

If I learned anything this year... it's to never doubt Marvel. 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Agree that MI7 will do better than Bond is doing this weekend but it won't be marketed as the last as they have already announced MI8 ages ago. 

 

[Legion Again]

51 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I give up. Eric is right. Nolan's Oppenheimer movie will probably be the last major adult targeted blockbuster that isn't a superhero or expansive universe (Star Wars, Monsters) IP with a budget over 100million for several years. 

Can I get an updated forecast for Top Gun 2 now

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, Eric Safin said:

@Cmasterclay I know I said I was going to bed, but I did at least want to respond to your recent post. And I guess if I could throw my hat into the breakouts post-2024, I do feel mildly confident, even if it is still under the nostalgic IP issue I've been having. I feel confident Jurassic World will continue on after Dominion. There's just too much money in both tickets and toys to abandon after the third movie. Maybe we'll get another soft reboot post-Pratt and BDH, but Jurassic should still live on.

 

Avatar is also one I'm super confident will be a huge deal. I know the Cameron stans can be annoying, but the dude knows how to make a crowdpleaser, and I'm sure the storyline and tech he has for all those sequels will be mindblowing stuff that will get everybody hyped again and shut up the "no cultural impact" crowd. I'm sure Disney will also strongarm the man into spin-offs and prequels and stuff.

 

And there's still animation studios that will always pump out original movies and new franchises. Even outside of Disney and Pixar, Illumination and Dreamworks and Sony are able to get big new franchises out that kids love, albeit at a smaller scale compared to Disney. I'm sure we'll also get like an Inside Out 2 or another big animated sequel down the line that can make big bucks.

 

And while Fantastic Beasts and Rowling aren't helping, I still think Harry Potter is a big deal. The theme park rides still do great and they play on cable all the time. A big Force Awakens-style legacyquel with the original trio returning would do massive numbers.

 

But yeah, a lot of this stuff are still Disney titles which doesn't fix the whole "audiences only care about Disney/Marvel" issue. But hey, take what you can get I suppose.

They should pay future Oscar winners Robert Pattinson and Kristen Stewart to do a Twilight sequel. Given the recent surge in popularity, I really think that is a bigger hit in waiting than people recognize. However, it will never happen, for the obvious reasons. 

 

Animation is in totally fine shape and will have plenty of hits. I'm not an animation guy at all outside of Bojack Horseman and old Simpsons episodes, though, so I mean only live action. 

 

Thanks for responding! It's very possible Jurassic World continues on....but frankly, they've sacrificed the horror and suspense of the original Jurassic Park for a quip-filled CGI adventure series starring literal Star Lord, so it's pretty much a superhero franchise in spirit at this point too.

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I mentioned Knives Out earlier... which ties into your great point. Respected director Rian Johnson is given opportunity to do something original with Knives Out. It pays off. Big time. Franchise potential. But what happens? The sequels go to Netflix. 

A Star is Born outgrossed Venom in 2018 in the same month, and Bradley Cooper's next movie is on....Netflix!! Same with Fincher after Gone Girl (great  point above) and Marty after Shutter Island/Wolf. I'm not a Nolan worshiper like alot of you guys, but credit where it is due, he really is the last man in the breach.

[Jamiem]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 

Shit, I guess you could be right if he doesn't make it through filming of 8, fingers crossed it is a smooth production after how much shit they have had to go through filming 7 though. 

[Legion Again]

29 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

a throwback to the 90s/early 00s "prestigious" blockbusters such as Gladiator and Master & Commander

It’s amazing that gladiator was a top 3 movie just two decades ago. I feel like these movies would flop now.

[Jamiem]

2 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

It’s amazing that gladiator was a top 3 movie just two decades ago. I feel like these movies would flop now.

Either that or a movie that is watched by 50m+ people on Netflix ... for at least 2 minutes. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Maybe if studios were able to crack the video game movie curse in the past couple of years things would look different but now it seems video game adaptions are moving to TV instead. 

 

[Legion Again]

People recoiled when I expressed my desire for 6 mcu per year, but soon it will be the only thing keeping the lights on for the MTCs 

Edited October 9, 2021 by Let There Be Legion

[Jamiem]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Maybe if studios were able to crack the video game movie curse in the past couple of years things would look different but now it seems video game adaptions are moving to TV instead. 

 

Everyone saying Marvel has ruined what gets released in theatres but really GoT and Netflix played a massive part in the shift to big budget TV. Now that the studios all have streamers and with competition heating up that has accelerated a lot. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'll be very interesting how the new Bond performs when it releases, in what? 3-4 years? There'll be more media attention than usual given the recast but can that elevate what many are considering an aging franchise? Will Bond be a POC actor? A young newbie? A popular well-known actor? Can it compete with the action Tom Cruise provides with Mission franchise? A more campy direction risks comparisons to the MCU, Kingsmen, etc. And the more "campy" Bonds have generally been the weakest received (Day Another Die). The campy Roger Moore films were all over the place--Man with Golden Gun is one of the lowest grossing

[Jamiem]

2 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

People recoiled when I expressed my desire for 6 mcu per year, but soon it will be the only thing keeping the lights on for the MTCs 

Need to double or triple that number if that is all they are going to be playing 

[grey ghost]

Honestly I think Bond is hurt by not having a diverse audience.

 

Marvel movies and of course F9 have been relying on an overrepresentation of black/latino/asian movie goers.

 

Often the audience will only be 40 to 45% white.

 

Maybe rural areas might have either fewer viewing options or disinterest in supporting Hollywood. I dunno. But the cities seem to be the ones keeping the theaters alive. Can anyone confirm or debunk this?

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

I give up. Eric is right. Nolan's Oppenheimer movie will probably be the last major adult targeted blockbuster that isn't a superhero or expansive universe (Star Wars, Monsters) IP with a budget over 100million for several years. 

We are in the era where bigger things are become bigger and vice versa.

 

In 2001, 2002, top 10 of the year only contributed 25-26% of the total yearly gross but now they are >33% range in 2018 and 2019.  

[cookieleeann]

I feel like the dawn of the internet combined with Netflix changed things forever. People no longer feel the need to go to the theaters for every new movie unless it's some big event or if something is leading up to some huge payoff. Also The theatrical window is much shorter now, which I think plays a huge part also. There are soo many choices now. I personally love going to the theater. I saw Knives out with a sold out crowd & it was a great experience. But yeah I feel like if people aren't really invested in your franchise then they won't go. The pandemic kinda sped up the inevitable....