NO TIME TO DIE WEEKEND THREAD | Bond 56M, Venom 32M

[Legion Again]

Per katniss data, SC had 55.7% showtime hold last weekend, Fri +107%, PSA +271%. This weekend showtime hold is 71.6%. If weekend will hold better than 20%, with inflated Sun, let’s suppose Fri hold is 80% on the dot for 1.3M or +174%. Then the PSA is +283%, basically same as last week.  Pretty neat.
 

Though this same approach would suggest 220k for FG Fri, which doesn’t feel right intuitive.

[charlie Jatinder]

Well way I see it, Hollywood in India meant Superheroes and Creatures, so West is just catching up. 👀

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Need to double or triple that number if that is all they are going to be playing 

One per month? Works for me. Should just about fully make up for losing all revenue of nonMCU forever.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

We are also technically getting new franchises as well it's just in the age of the Cinematic Universe they are connected. It's why though I am excited for them I am a tad bummed after Eternals the next 7 MCU films are all sequels.

[titanic2187]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Honestly I think Bond is hurt by not having a diverse audience.

 

Marvel movies and of course F9 have been relying on an overrepresentation of black/latino/asian movie goers.

 

Often the audience will only be 40 to 45% white.

 

Maybe rural areas might have either fewer viewing options or disinterest in supporting Hollywood. I dunno. But the cities seem to be the ones keeping the theaters alive. Can anyone confirm or debunk this?

It is true. The younger the demo, the more diverse the racial component. In fact, white made up of less than 50% of those below 18 in USA while 76% of the people over 65 are non-Hispanic white. The reason we keep seeing white made up of less than 50% of  turn out rate is because of moviegoers typically skew younger, it mirror the demographic distribution . 

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Maybe rural areas might have either fewer viewing options or disinterest in supporting Hollywood. I dunno. But the cities seem to be the ones keeping the theaters alive. Can anyone confirm or debunk this?

Oh this explain why rarely any film has white population indexing closer to US population, because Urban America is way more diverse, and this is where most polling is done.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

This thread really went places while I was gone. But the lukewarm numbers for Bond aren't as surprising as you think. Older audiences have been largely uninterested in returning to the big screen as evident by all the recent drama movies that opened to single digit numbers. And since they're the target audience for this IP, it's going to feel the heat.

 

Still, the real meltdown, the one to rule them all, is still a couple of weeks away. If an established property like Bond ends up creating this much drama, then I'm utterly dreading the moment when the Dune OW estimates come in. It's going to be a bumpy ride, boys!

[cookie]

14 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

This thread really went places while I was gone. But the lukewarm numbers for Bond aren't as surprising as you think. Older audiences have been largely uninterested in returning to the big screen as evident by all the recent drama movies that opened to single digit numbers. And since they're the target audience for this IP, it's going to feel the heat.

 

Still, the real meltdown, the one to rule them all, is still a couple of weeks away. If an established property like Bond ends up creating this much drama, then I'm utterly dreading the moment when the Dune OW estimates come in. It's going to be a bumpy ride, boys!

I feel like people would be happy with $30m+ for Dune lol, HBO MAX is its worst enemy above all else.

Edited October 9, 2021 by cookie

[Krissykins]

21 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

then I'm utterly dreading the moment when the Dune OW estimates come in. It's going to be a bumpy ride, boys!

See below: $30-40m for Dune would be great considering HBOMax. So you shouldn’t be so worried 

8 minutes ago, cookie said:

I feel like people would be happy with $30m+ for Dune lol, HBO MAX is its worst enemy above all else.

 

[Ronin46]

22 minutes ago, cookie said:

I feel like people would be happy with $30m+ for Dune lol, HBO MAX is its worst enemy above all else.

 

I thought so a week ago but after very promising sales there will be meltdowns if those figures don't hold. I hope it does really well. I am not going to join the DDR (Dune death riders) as its a pretty full train on there and I actually hope it does well. I realize Denny boy has upset some Marvels stans but I enjoy his movies and hope there is a sequel.

Edited October 9, 2021 by Ronin46

[CJohn]

Apocaliptic numbers for NTTD.

[thedast]

1 hour ago, Jamiem said:

Everyone saying Marvel has ruined what gets released in theatres but really GoT and Netflix played a massive part in the shift to big budget TV. Now that the studios all have streamers and with competition heating up that has accelerated a lot. 

Dropping in to say: I agree. People, especially young people with less to do, are finding more content, better experiences, and most importantly, breathing room to care about characters in long-form storytelling. I mean that's always been the case, but now it's better mostly. 

 

Stuff like Twitter and Reaction channels on Youtube means people who like a thing are finding themselves easier and talking about art they love longer, so it makes sense almost that such people would be prefer ongoing stories than one-offs. TV used to be the lesser brother of movies just because of budget but stuff like Game of Thrones (despite all its failings) showed that  you can get high quality, high budget stuff outside a cinema and I think that's where a lot of the change took off from. Look at the bigger cultural moments of the past few years outside CBMs: You, Witcher, Squid Game, teen-tilted shows like Euphoria and Sex Education, WandaVision etc. 

 

Once high budget stuff started coming to TV/streaming it made the movies seem less special especially mid-tier stuff. CBMs just happen to be the one genre that checked off all the boxes which is why they're thriving: 

- High fantasy (even the Fast franchise has gotten more unrealistic and ridiculous with time)

- Existing lore to dissect, compare and discuss endlessly

- Big budget to pull off the WOW factor

- Most importantly: connected stories and loveable actors/characters (this last bit is why I think DC struggles more than MCU)

 

 

We give studios shit for mining nostalgia and searching for the next franchise always but truly when you can get a ton of decent content online now why should I leave the house for your basic drama story? Bond is literally surviving on the familiarity factor but it hasn't done a lot to bring in the younger audience. Kingsman, had it kept up quality wise (and it could still turn things around in sequel) would have completely knocked Bond off the 'spy movie' throne. I see younger people saying a well dressed young guy in glasses looks like a 'Kingsman'  and suggesting spin off ideas, that's cultural impact Bond is lacking, and the producers saying they'll never consider it either puts them in the 'ye olde' category. Theatres are now for the event movies, and I think that's okay tbh. The Oscar darlings would actually get more eyes if they embraced streaming and marketed themselves to be those kind of viewing events instead of begging people to go see it in a cinema and calling the things they watch there instead, stupid.
There'll always be the occasional breakout like Star is Born or Get Out or Knives Out, but the latter also operates on a premise that promises more stories sooo

Edited October 9, 2021 by thedast

[SchumacherFTW]

24 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

Apocaliptic numbers for NTTD.

The USA was a mistake

[wildphantom]

‘Twas the tracking mid-week that did it. 
 

Nobody was expecting $100 million OW until that fandango news came out mid-week and some ‘expert’ translated it as indication of an opening nearby 40% better than ‘MI: Fallout’ ?!?! 
 

Around $60 million will be just fine and I’m sure it’ll have decent legs. 
 

All around the world it’s down a bit over Spectre, because of the pandemic. (UK withstanding where not even a pandemic gets in the way of 007 mania). 
 

Venom’s domestic debut has skewered the perspective a tad that we’re back to normal. We’re not quite there yet, but another big weekend all round is a big step in the right direction.  In fact, Venom could possibly have made $20-30 million more in  a pre-pandemic climate. 
 

Most of you were thinking everything was going to get postponed again a few weeks ago!  

[The GOAT]

Went into this not remembering jack about the previous Bond movie. Found it extremely convoluted and tedious. 

I could never understand what the hell Mr. Robot was trying to convey/say.   

Watching Tom Cruise try to kill himself (in Mission Impossible) was an infinitely better watch.   

  

Edit:

Spoiler

At least Ana De Armas was in this for brief moment. 

 

Edited October 9, 2021 by The GOAT

[charlie Jatinder]

After all the talk of old audience not coming, waiting for demographic reveal later in the day. Spectre had 78% over 25, expecting NTTD to be around 80-85%.

[el sid]

Many theories were already mentioned in this thread why NTTD underperformed and I wouldn't disagree.

But at least to me there's another factor: I don't know about the reception of Spectre in the USA (looked at RT: Only 61% Audience Score and 3.5/5) but here it was, at least for a Bond movie, not very well liked. Now the new movie is also rated around 7/10 which is, after the high expectations, just disappointing. Also not helping IMO is the mentioning that there's (again) some darkness/tristesse in it and that it lacks the Lightheartedness of earlier 007 movies.

Edited October 9, 2021 by el sid

[Movie nerd]

Yes exactly, No time to die is a direct sequel to Spectre, film which was recieved badly, borderline hated by audience. It has to be a major factor as well. Spectre did well, especially during it's opening in big part thanks to how well recieved was Skyfall. 

[cookie]

31 minutes ago, el sid said:

Many theories were already mentioned in this thread why NTTD underperformed and I wouldn't disagree.

But at least to me there's another factor: I don't know about the reception of Spectre in the USA (looked at RT: Only 61% Audience Score and 3.5/5) but here it was, at least for a Bond movie, not very well liked. Now the new movie is also rated around 7/10 which is, after the high expectations, just disappointing. Also not helping IMO is the mentioning that there's (again) some darkness/tristesse in it and that it lacks the Lightheartedness of earlier 007 movies.

I wouldn't call the previous Craig movies any more lighthearted, though.

[Krissykins]

23 minutes ago, Movie nerd said:

Yes exactly, No time to die is a direct sequel to Spectre, film which was recieved badly, borderline hated by audience. 

How over the top 😂.
 

It got an A- Cinemascore. “Hated” is hyperbolic.