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Eric Riley

NO TIME TO DIE WEEKEND THREAD | Bond 56M, Venom 32M

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Anyway to brighten the mood a little, I've been on record as saying that 2022 is going to be massive (something to look forward to) I think there is a very good change that 12 titles from next year can make $300m+ at the domestic box office. The titles in question (in release order, I'm not playing favourites y'all can do that) 

 

The Batman 

Doctor Strange 2

Thor 4

Jurassic World 3

Lightyear

Black Panther 2

Indy 5

MI7

The Flash

The Marvels

Aquaman 2

Avatar 2

 

Now the bad news for some of you is they are all franchise films. 

 

 

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At least 2022 has the Jordan Peele film in terms of non-franchise hits. That’s probably 150m

 

David O. Russell’s film is out November. Pending cancelation or Joy level reception, it can hit The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle range. Great cast.

 

Wild cards:

Michael Bay’s Ambulance with Jake Gyllenhaal (Feb)

Bullet Train with Brad Pitt and Sandra Bullock (April)

Lost City of D with Channing Tatum and Sandra Bullock (April)

Baz Luhrman’s Elvis with Tom Hanks (June)

Bros produced by Judd Apatow and starring Billy Eichner (August)

Olivia Wilde’s Don’t Worry Darling with Florence Pugh and Harry Styles (Sept)

Ticket to Paradise with George Clooney and Julia Roberts (Sept)

I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Whitney Houston biopic)- Dec


Looks to be a year with a lot stacked on the table 

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9 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Anyway to brighten the mood a little, I've been on record as saying that 2022 is going to be massive (something to look forward to) I think there is a very good change that 12 titles from next year can make $300m+ at the domestic box office. The titles in question (in release order, I'm not playing favourites y'all can do that) 

 

The Batman 

Doctor Strange 2

Thor 4

Jurassic World 3

Lightyear

Black Panther 2

Indy 5

MI7

The Flash

The Marvels

Aquaman 2

Avatar 2

 

Now the bad news for some of you is they are all franchise films. 

 

 

I'd be surprised if any of the DC movies, MI7 or Indy 5 did 300m

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3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'll be very interesting how the new Bond performs when it releases, in what? 3-4 years? There'll be more media attention than usual given the recast but can that elevate what many are considering an aging franchise? Will Bond be a POC actor? A young newbie? A popular well-known actor? Can it compete with the action Tom Cruise provides with Mission franchise? A more campy direction risks comparisons to the MCU, Kingsmen, etc. And the more "campy" Bonds have generally been the weakest received (Day Another Die). The campy Roger Moore films were all over the place--Man with Golden Gun is one of the lowest grossing

 

Given how the core fans react to the slightest hint of change, there isn't going to be any risks taken with casting. I find that any of the potential POC actors that could make an interesting Bond are quick to shut down any rumours to avoid being bombarded with hate mail. 

 

The next Bond film has the deck stacked against it. It will do well internationally based on the brand, but I don't think there's an appetite to take the risks needed to make it interesting to new audiences. 

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42 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

MI7

The Flash

Aquaman 2

MI7 would need a pretty huge increase over previous MI, afaik there’s no special hook to suggest it.  
 

Flash I’m dubious but we don’t know much, clearly 300+ is quite possible for a CBM if it clicks.  
 

Aquaman 2 would need a fairly mild sequel drop, I think it will miss 300 on its current date (and if it moves, probably won’t become a 2022 300+ film even if it is a 300+ film).

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Just now, Let There Be Legion said:

MI7 would need a pretty huge increase over previous MI, afaik there’s no special hook to suggest it.  
 

Flash I’m dubious but we don’t know much, clearly 300+ is quite possible for a CBM if it clicks.  
 

Aquaman 2 would need a fairly mild sequel drop, I think it will miss 300 on its current date (and if it moves, probably won’t become a 2022 300+ film even if it is a 300+ film).

MI7 probably the least likely on the list but hoping that Fallout love will mean a decent bump. 

 

Flash I think the story it is telling will help it greatly.

 

Aquaman 2 being dated same as Avatar 2 is also somewhat questionable but can see it moving up to early December which would give it 2 weeks before Avatar 2, you are right that it could get bumped out of 2022 as well though. 

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35 minutes ago, RthBond said:

Earlier Fri I had been thinking NTTD 22.5,V2 8.8,see in few hours what Fri est is

No Time to Die and Venom performing at this level this weekend means Halloween Kills has a better chance of opening at #1 next weekend, despite piracy and a home release. 

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15 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

MI7 would need a pretty huge increase over previous MI, afaik there’s no special hook to suggest it.  
 

Flash I’m dubious but we don’t know much, clearly 300+ is quite possible for a CBM if it clicks.  
 

Yeah I'm hoping for $250M DOM for MI7 which is solely off the strength of Fallout 

 

Flash is shaping up to be a Civil War type crossover in the DCEU with Keaton's Batman so $300M should be possible but The Marvels may hurt it.

 

No idea why they haven't moved Aquaman 2 yet.

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4 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Yeah I'm hoping for $250M DOM for MI7 which is solely off the strength of Fallout 

 

Flash is shaping up to be a Civil War type crossover in the DCEU with Keaton's Batman so $300M should be possible but The Marvels may hurt it.

 

No idea why they haven't moved Aquaman 2 yet.

 

I though Fallout would have been bigger because of Rogue Nation (which I think better than Fallout) - and RN bigger because of  Ghost Protocol.  They or Cruise may have hit their ceiling.  A  shame since they're so much better than #MI2 when Cruise was at his stardom peak.

 

Probably because Avatar 2 has yet to stick to a release date :lol:

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10 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

$22.5M incl previews? Pretty meh right?

 

Yeah, with those numbers it looks around a $58m w/e.  2 months ago and it would have been seen as a very solid number though.

 

Venom around $32m

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4 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'll be very interesting how the new Bond performs when it releases, in what? 3-4 years? There'll be more media attention than usual given the recast but can that elevate what many are considering an aging franchise? Will Bond be a POC actor? A young newbie? A popular well-known actor? Can it compete with the action Tom Cruise provides with Mission franchise? A more campy direction risks comparisons to the MCU, Kingsmen, etc. And the more "campy" Bonds have generally been the weakest received (Day Another Die). The campy Roger Moore films were all over the place--Man with Golden Gun is one of the lowest grossing

 

Not really.  Spectacle and humor usually pay off rather well for Bond

 

Top 6 Bonds adjusted for inflation in the U.S.

  • Thunderball ($590 million)
  • Goldfinger ($514.7 million)
  • Skyfall ($358.3 million)
  • You Only Live Twice ($336.4 million)
  • Moonraker ($262.5 million)
  • Die Another Day ($259.6 million)

 

Bottom 5

 

  • On Her Majesty’s Secret Service ($150.3 million)
  • A View to a Kill ($132.8 million)
  • The Living Daylights ($122.7 million)
  • The Man with the Golden Gun ($105.1 million)
  • Licence to Kill ($81.8 million)
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20 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

No Time to Die and Venom performing at this level this weekend means Halloween Kills has a better chance of opening at #1 next weekend, despite piracy and a home release. 

It’s locked, could beat NTTD+V2 

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6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Why are y'all so....

 

NTTD opening 60M or so has nothing to do with the market in general. It's doing what I expected for a ageing franchise, decline from previous one.

 

If anything, holdovers are doing pretty well. I think SC will be dropping less than 20% for weekend. TAF 2 looks like 2.7M FRI, weekend be 10M+ mostly.

 

Overall market will be 2nd best weekend (FSS) Post CoVID at $110M vs $117M last weekend.

 

I think the hope was that the overall market would be higher with a 2nd active blockbuster and a holiday weekend...on that point, if the Top 10 and Overall come in lower, I actually will be disappointed...

 

Maybe adding a semi-3rd blockbuster with Halloween Kills next weekend helps, although if it doesn't, it may mean we've again hit the "how many folks will come out on the weekend" ceiling, til we get a few more weeks of recovery in...

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