Weekend Thread (10/15-17) | Halloween Kills 4.85M Previews, Last Duel 350K

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Gucci+Richard combined under Eternals OD

Yep, because the only thing that matters in art is how they relate to the newest dumb superhero movie.

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

House of Gucci gets a great reaction whenever the trailer plays and will be a big hit - lots of star power and it is a very easy to market, fun movie. 75m for that one. King Richard WOULD be a hit without HBO Max and WSS will likely be a hit too. Those are the adult films that would be a hit even in normal times. In what world was Belfast or Licorice Pizza or Spencer ever making real money?

I think Belfast could've done $30M+ total in normal times. Would have certainly been catnip for a certain audience out there (if said audience was returning to theaters). But yeah, Spencer likely would've done Jackie numbers at best in any scenario and PTA has never been a household name to multiplex crowds, you're not wrong about those probably having a ceiling as to how high they would go.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Val357 said:

Oooooh my. This either means very good things for Eternals or very bad things for House of Gucci and King Richard.

I have about a 45M opening day in mind.

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Yep, because the only thing that matters in art is how they relate to the newest dumb superhero movie.

We’ve been talking box office for these films, no? Not “artistic value” or whatever.

[Legion Again]

I know dune is about to do pretty okay, but I feel like “adult drama on hbo max in a crowded theatrical date” is a formula for some more real low nums.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, Let There Be Legion said:

I have about a 45M opening day in mind.

We’ve been talking box office for these films, no? Not “artistic value” or whatever.

It's just so discouraging to see discussion of every single movie, whether the quality of it or the box office, eventually get boiled down to "here's why X superhero movie is gonna make more"

[AJG]

Slightly off topic but Peacocks UI incorporates the RT score for every movie, so whenever you pause Halloween Kills you see a nice little 49% Rotten Splat on the screen.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's just so discouraging to see discussion of every single movie, whether the quality of it or the box office, eventually get boiled down to "here's why X superhero movie is gonna make more"

 

Would it look better to say Total DOM under Free Guy OW?:)  B/c many of these adult Oscar hopeful movies will probably also fall there, but that's a tighter window to fit all of them in:)...

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

So I don't want to start a fight, but sometimes the gleefully negative tone of some of these posts about adult blockbusters comes off as almost rooting for or at least okay with what is actually a very bad thing. I guess that's what has got me going on this fine Friday.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

I know dune is about to do pretty okay, but I feel like “adult drama on hbo max in a crowded theatrical date” is a formula for some more real low nums.

I wouldn't call Dune an adult drama. 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

I know dune is about to do pretty okay, but I feel like “adult drama on hbo max in a crowded theatrical date” is a formula for some more real low nums.

It certainly doesn't help but King Richard has much more going for it than something like The Many Saints of Newark (which was always going to appeal to a limited audience regardless of release pattern) ever did. $40-50M total would be fine given the circumstances. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

House of Gucci gets a great reaction whenever the trailer plays and will be a big hit - lots of star power and it is a very easy to market, fun movie. 75m for that one. King Richard WOULD be a hit without HBO Max and WSS will likely be a hit too. Those are the adult films that would be a hit even in normal times. In what world was Belfast or Licorice Pizza or Spencer ever making real money?

I see all these comments on different movie sites that Licorice Pizza is accessible and looks crowd-pleasing and will finally get PTA a Best Picture win, and I'm so confused. Appealing to PTA fans, sure, but I would be surprised if people other than film heads are here for it.

[Nikostar]

What did The Green Knight, Respect and Stillwater do for previews.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

So I don't want to start a fight, but sometimes the gleefully negative tone of some of these posts about adult blockbusters comes off as almost rooting for or at least okay with what is actually a very bad thing. I guess that's what has got me going on this fine Friday.

 

You know I've said the market isn't back in full and healthy yet (see EmpireCity and me all last month, that got confirmed this month)...

 

So, I'm personally surprised that many of these Oscar focused movies are all releasing in the same timeframe (yes, I know Oscars are fall to early winter releases, but sometimes, you adjust b/c you have to)...I'd have held any that could wait for 2022, until any movie showed box office strength for these...or I'd have sold off and/or day and dated those that couldn't that had lesser prospects (based on theme, other studio release needs, etc)...

 

You experiment one at a time per month and see who starts coming out...not 4-5 in what, 6 weeks?, against all the other blockbusters that ganged up in the 6 week spots, too...

 

It was a recipe for box office failure...and so it's not really pessimistic, but realistic, about the chances as the box office release schedule and current demo paradigms have set up...

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

King Richard will be hurt by HBO Max but do well still because it is one of the only movies coming out that appeals directly to black audiences, and the data shows that black audiences are coming back more than white ones (to the point people are overselling the age thing, frankly).

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

I wouldn't call Dune an adult drama. 

Exactly! It’s a blockbuster, so I don’t expect its success to translate to big nums for Richard.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

I see all these comments on different movie sites that Licorice Pizza is accessible and looks crowd-pleasing and will finally get PTA a Best Picture win, and I'm so confused. Appealing to PTA fans, sure, but I would be surprised if people other than film heads are here for it.

Licorice Pizza is gonna be another Inherent Vice: low box office and screenplay+tech noms at the Oscars. 

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You know I've said the market isn't back in full and healthy yet (see EmpireCity and me all last month, that got confirmed this month)...

 

So, I'm personally surprised that many of these Oscar focused movies are all releasing in the same timeframe (yes, I know Oscars are fall to early winter releases, but sometimes, you adjust b/c you have to)...I'd have held any that could wait for 2022, until any movie showed box office strength for these...or I'd have sold off and/or day and dated those that couldn't that had lesser prospects (based on theme, other studio release needs, etc)...

 

You experiment one at a time per month and see who starts coming out...not 4-5 in what, 6 weeks?, against all the other blockbusters that ganged up in the 6 week spots, too...

 

It was a recipe for box office failure...and so it's not really pessimistic, but realistic, about the chances as the box office release schedule and current demo paradigms have set up...

 

 

That's fair. Personally, I am of the opinion that we are going to have to eat a few failures and rough patches to get back to normal. We need to slowly rebuild the audience and get people going to the movies again normally over many months. If we keep delaying things or putting them on streamers, the market will never get back to normal. We have to release and promote these things and rebuild bit by bit, even if it means a few failures at first. Last Duel has to die so something like Nightmare Alley or West Side Story can live.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Exactly! It’s a blockbuster, so I don’t expect its success to translate to big nums for Richard.

Ah, I misinterpreted your post. I read the framing of "I know Dune is about to do pretty okay" as grouping Dune with adult dramas as an exception and was quite confused. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

King Richard will be hurt by HBO Max but do well still because it is one of the only movies coming out that appeals directly to black audiences, and the data shows that black audiences are coming back more than white ones (to the point people are overselling the age thing, frankly).

 

It's more black and Hispanic male audiences showing up - women tend to drive Oscar hopefuls, and they are not there...when Addams Family finally got a majority of women viewers and was still only in the 50s (and that counts the girls kids, too), it was a "finally" moment, even if at a low box office...

 

Normally, I think women used to be 52% of box office for the year (I'd check my guess, but I'm running out the door, but I think I remember that stat) - that's not this year...

[filmlover]

I don't think HBO Max has hurt the last couple of WB movies nearly as much as people think they have when you consider everything. Reminiscence and Cry Macho were adult dramas with mediocre or worse reviews and would have struggled in any environment because of that. Newark was always going to be mainly attractive to die-hard Sopranos fans and no one else (the unusually huge budget for it was likely because recreating an era doesn't come cheap). And then there's Malignant, which anyone who has seen it knows is destined for future cult classic status regardless of how much it would have made theaters.