Weekend Thread (10/15-17) | Halloween Kills 4.85M Previews, Last Duel 350K

[Ozymandias]

The Last Duel Dredding its way at the boxoffice does suck, but I don't necessarily think the big budget adult dramas are gonna go extinct, I think they're just gonna be produced by streaming giants that can afford to make them with perhaps a dual same day streaming/theatrical release depending on circumstances.  For instance, Scott's next movie Napoleon is being financed by Apple Studios and you already know that movie is gonna be big budget and probably R.

 

Movie theaters really are gonna become franchise dominated whereas adult oriented stuff is gonna be pushed to mainly streaming.

 

Edit: That reminds me, can Alex Garland please phone up Apple or Amazon and get that Dredd sequel rolling? thanks

Edited October 15, 2021 by Ozymandias

[Legion Again]

Too low, but I don’t have time to dig up BW or SC initial ranges right now: https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-eternals/

[Eric Duncan]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-eternals/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 10/15/21)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
10/22/2021	Dune	$42,000,000 – $52,000,000	+4%	$95,000,000 – $145,000,000	-4%	4,000	Warner Bros. Pictures
10/22/2021	The French Dispatch					50	Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/22/2021	Ron’s Gone Wrong	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	-14%	$25,000,000 – $50,000,000	-16%	3,500	Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/29/2021	Antlers	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	-21%	$7,000,000 – $17,000,000	-21%	2,400	Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/29/2021	Last Night in Soho	$6,500,000 – $11,500,000	-5%	$15,000,000 – $30,000,000	-6%	3,300	Focus Features
10/29/2021	My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission	TBD		TBD		1,500	Funimation / Toho Co. Ltd.
11/5/2021	Eternals	$82,000,000 – $102,000,000		$210,000,000 – $280,000,000			Disney / Marvel Studios

[filmlover]

The French Dispatch looks to be doing a fairly big expansion on the 29th since tickets are on sale all over the place. Hopefully the numbers from the 50 theaters it's playing in next week are relatively encouraging.

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Too low, but I don’t have time to dig up BW or SC initial ranges right now: https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-eternals/

65-90 (beat geomean by 5%)

35-55 (beat geomean by 70%)

 

95-155 👀😉🧐

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

65-90 (beat geomean by 5%)

35-55 (beat geomean by 70%)

 

95-155 👀😉🧐

I am thinking 12m previews/90m OW and so my number is outside your range. I am willing to bet its not coming anywhere close to 150m. 

[Paul Verhoeven]

Custando cerca de US $ 200 milhões, “The Last Duel” tem um elenco de estrelas que reúne Ben Affleck e Matt Damon, também estrelado por Adam Driver e Jodie Comer.

https://www.showbiz411.com/2021/10/15/box-office-disaster-looms-for-ridley-scotts-star-studded-the-last-duel-made-just-350k-in-previews-thursday-night

 

 

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

65-90 (beat geomean by 5%)

35-55 (beat geomean by 70%)

 

95-155 👀😉🧐

based on the presales so far, thats a realistic range maybe 👀

[john2000]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking 12m previews/90m OW and so my number is outside your range. I am willing to bet its not coming anywhere close to 150m. 

i think that a 8 multi is more realistic for 96 mill ow, still its way too early to know for sure and it will depend on how the last week goes imo

[Cmasterclay]

Not to start a fanboy war but if they can't make a three hour long Chloe Zhao directed MCU movie something unique and interesting, then that should be the nail in the coffin for the franchise's ability to be anything beyond a forgettable (though fun and lucrative!) formula.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Not to start a fanboy war but if they can't make a three hour long Chloe Zhao directed MCU movie something unique and interesting, then that should be the nail in the coffin for the franchise's ability to be anything beyond a forgettable (though fun and lucrative!) formula.

thats your opinion though, it doesnt mean that other people thing that way.I am sure that to most people as long as its a good movie that all that they are going to care

Edited October 15, 2021 by john2000

[Paul Verhoeven]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's releasing the same day as Resident Evil and Encanto, 5 days after Ghostbusters and King Richard - it's gonna be screen-limited, which is gonna kill its shot for any large box office or buzz...

 

PS - Disney animated aka Encanto has ALWAYS been a 4 quad draw, especially focused in the same "draw lane" as House Of Gucci - women of all ages...so, limited screens, 2nd choice draw vs another movie at the same time, booked for presales based on how other adult movies draws have gone - hope for the best, expect the worst...

 

Gucci will have a bigger opening than Resident Evil.

[Last Man Standing]

It'll be like a decade before Hollywood makes a medieval movie again.

[Cmasterclay]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

thats your opinion though, it doesnt mean that other people thing that way.I am sure that to most people as long as its a good movie that all that they are going to care

It is their opinion and I respect it (I like most of the MCU movies), but I've come to believe that it is less a personal preference in certain movies than a totally different, intractable conflict over how we consume and process movies and entertainment. And that's okay! But it's going to be a constant frustration if the entire industry adopts the formula and stylings of these movies, yes.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

It is their opinion and I respect it (I like most of the MCU movies), but I've come to believe that it is less a personal preference in certain movies than a totally different, intractable conflict over how we consume and process movies and entertainment. And that's okay! But it's going to be a constant frustration if the entire industry adopts the formula and stylings of these movies, yes.

i mean i never understood the so called formula, other than the duh hero,villain and  a similar tone everything else seems different to me shang chi is different than guardians , guardians are different compare to antman etc.Anyway reactions drop in 3 days i think

[Ozymandias]

13 minutes ago, Paul Verhoeven said:

Custando cerca de US $ 200 milhões, “The Last Duel” tem um elenco de estrelas que reúne Ben Affleck e Matt Damon, também estrelado por Adam Driver e Jodie Comer.

https://www.showbiz411.com/2021/10/15/box-office-disaster-looms-for-ridley-scotts-star-studded-the-last-duel-made-just-350k-in-previews-thursday-night

 

 

 

Theres no way in hell The Last Duel cost 200 million, probably more like 80-100 million tops.   Scott is usually pretty good with budgets, Prometheus cost 120m and The Martian was 108 million and both of those look a lot pricier than Last Duel.

[Cmasterclay]

Last Duel was great but honestly the scope of the shots wasn't as expansive as thought, a few times it even look like they skimped on sets and extras tbh.

[TwoMisfits]

38 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-eternals/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 10/15/21)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
10/22/2021	Dune	$42,000,000 – $52,000,000	+4%	$95,000,000 – $145,000,000	-4%	4,000	Warner Bros. Pictures
10/22/2021	The French Dispatch					50	Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/22/2021	Ron’s Gone Wrong	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	-14%	$25,000,000 – $50,000,000	-16%	3,500	Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/29/2021	Antlers	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	-21%	$7,000,000 – $17,000,000	-21%	2,400	Disney / Searchlight Pictures
10/29/2021	Last Night in Soho	$6,500,000 – $11,500,000	-5%	$15,000,000 – $30,000,000	-6%	3,300	Focus Features
10/29/2021	My Hero Academia: World Heroes’ Mission	TBD		TBD		1,500	Funimation / Toho Co. Ltd.
11/5/2021	Eternals	$82,000,000 – $102,000,000		$210,000,000 – $280,000,000			Disney / Marvel Studios

 

Box Office Pro hopping on my "no movie over $100M OW til Spidey" bandwagon...that's about my range for Eternals (I'll either eek one way or the other on being right/wrong:)...aka, it's gonna be close to busting my early 2021 prediction, but for now, I think it just won't QUITE get there:)...hoping to be wrong and it blasts into the stratosphere like Venom 2 did...

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Last Duel was great but honestly the scope of the shots wasn't as expansive as thought, a few times it even look like they skimped on sets and extras tbh.

If I remember correctly, the movie was halfway through shooting when production shut down due to COVID, which would probably explain why movies that were made during the worst of the pandemic would appear to have cut corners a bit.

Edited October 15, 2021 by filmlover

[Eric Duncan]

I guess to move away from the doom and gloom about the state of adult-oriented films and awards hopefuls, I will fully admit that Halloween Kills' performance was a pleasant surprise. It's still a big drop from the last one, but even before the pandemic, I kinda felt this would have gotten a 35M opening, as I didn't see any big hook here that would make people come back. So potentially doing 10M more than that, despite the day-and-date release (yes I know nobody uses Peacock, but this movie is definitely a bigger deal and way more impactful than Boss Baby 2 was) is really good stuff IMO