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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

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10 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I agree, but I think , if box office trends hold, the second part of Dune is going to be a borderline decision,and I am sure the idea of "do we have to spend as much on part 2 as we did on part 1" will come up.

look, I love the novels and hope part 2 gets made. But I  try to be ruthlessly realsitic when it comes to the business side, and not let my personal likes and dislikes come into play. I think it will be up in the air for some time if Dune Part 2 will be made, and what the budget will be.

And Del Toro was right in walking away from  PR 2 when he saw the budget.I think Pacific rim was one of Del Toro's weakest films,but think he was right inseeing a film could not be made on a low budget.

One problem is that, (and I don't think this qualifies as a spoiler) that like LOTR, the really big, expnesive stuff  happens in the last part of the book.

 

Legendary and WB have greenlit a tv already. DV is directing the first episode. They are already deep in the Dune and DV business. They want streaming content and Dune might be something they can use for that. Every single little bit of IP is going to be mined and flogged to death for any known title. Whether thats based on a best selling book or a previous movie/tv show. I am not sure how much having Dune on the catalogue for streaming in the future for WB and the name prestige and having DV there to develop other projects is but it would be considerable. They have lost Nolan already. They will get money from tv rights and so on. Dune doing 300m plus WW on a 165M budget is fine. Its worth a lot to WB. 

Edited by Ronin46
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5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

WB did save cinemas. No doubt in that. They released films in theaters when no one else did and led the way.

Much doubt from me. The grosses from Dec-April were fun for me to follow, but hardly that critical in absolute magnitude. We could have just released nothing those months and started up with mdw, theaters would still have been okay.

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44 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

"In second place it’s Universal/Miramax/Blumhouse’s Halloween Kills with a $5M second Friday, -78%, and a second weekend of $15.8M at 3,727 locations, -68% for a ten day of $74.4M. The 2018 version of Halloween fell 59% in its second weekend.

 

 

 

That’s a +190% Friday bump for Halloween Kills. Nice. We knew it would drop big like Venom 2, Black Widow, F9 etc. Next weekend will be more stable. 

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(OW-prev)/(true Fri) for were

2.56 for BW & 2.88 for NTTD

 

Assuming about $5.3 previews &

$14m true Friday gets

BW model ~$41m OW

NTTD model ~$46m OW

 

$16m true Friday gets

BW model ~$46m OW

NTTD model ~$51m OW

 

(OW's including previews here)

 

Copy-pasting the weekend multipliers I used on another thread for Dune's OW. It'll most probably hit somewhere between BW's and NTTD's multipliers (note: actual previews were $5.1m). Midpoints roughly:

 

True Fri -> OW

11 - 35

12 - 38

13 - 40

14 - 43

15 - 46

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OCTOBER 22-24:

 

1. "Dune" - 37.9

2. "Halloween Kills" - 13.9 / 72.5

3. "No Time To Die" - 12.6 / 120.8

4. "Venom 2" - 8.8 / 181.5

5. "Ron's Gone Wrong" - 5.9

6. "The Addams Family 2" - 4.2 / 48.4

7. "The Last Duel" - 2.1 / 8.5

8. "Shang-Chi" - 2.0 / 220.9

9. "The Last Dispatch" - 1.4

10. "Free Guy" - 0.2 / 121.2

Edited by ViktorLosAngeles
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2 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

I’m no expert but 30-32 seems way low for what people in the tracking thread were predicting

 

Remember that DL saying exhibitors expect 50M (exhibitor presales higher than any other movie this year) and now this follow up of 30 to 32. An absolute trainwreck from them. They may bring out another article saying the sequel is greenlit and then cancelled in the same paragraph soon.

 

Here is the first article interesting part

 

What’s making predictions hard to nail right now is that we hear from exhibition (not Fandango) that presales for Dune are squashing everything that’s come before it, i.e. No Time to Die, Shang-Chi, F9, Black Widow. From movie theaters’ P.O.V., they’re looking at a $50M domestic start, but that’s hard to call as a day-and-date film like this could be heavily front-loaded and then drop off significantly by Saturday.

 

 

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