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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

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27 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

(OW-prev)/(true Fri) for were

2.56 for BW & 2.88 for NTTD

 

Assuming about $5.3 previews &

$14m true Friday gets

BW model ~$41m OW

NTTD model ~$46m OW

 

$16m true Friday gets

BW model ~$46m OW

NTTD model ~$51m OW

 

(OW's including previews here)

 

Copy-pasting the weekend multipliers I used on another thread for Dune's OW. It'll most probably hit somewhere between BW's and NTTD's multipliers (note: actual previews were $5.1m). Midpoints roughly:

 

True Fri -> OW

11 - 35

12 - 38

13 - 40

14 - 43

15 - 46

 

NTTD had the holiday weekend Sunday...so Dune will not have a 24% Sunday drop, and while NTTD is the most apt comp from a demo perspective, it's gonna fail for the Sunday...

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5 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

Deadline did say the 30-32 number was WB’s. Maybe they’re lowballing on purpose so the higher numbers look better?

 

Most likely but at some point you actually want to be closer to the actual number at some stage. They really are getting worse with there projections and maths.

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8 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

Deadline did say the 30-32 number was WB’s. Maybe they’re lowballing on purpose so the higher numbers look better?

 

It could be...but the strong slant in the demos (strong majority Caucasian, almost 80% 25 and up on a PG 13, and strongly male - although that one is pretty much every movie right now) indicates Dune might be struggling to break out of its fanbase to the GA...

 

That also could explain why trackers, other than Charlie, were high...there was and still is an expectation this movie could break into some part of the GA (aka those folks who haven't seen the 1st movie, haven't read Dune, and/or aren't fantasy book/tv (like Game of Thrones) fans)...maybe it still will...

 

I never thought it would in a big way...but you never really know til the weekend happens...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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2 hours ago, CJohn said:

What should I do next for my avatar? Sad Affleck is in fact back, so... what do want to bring back next to sweet BOT? :Venom:

 

It may have been the great reviews hes been getting as an entertaining horny lord in The Last Duel that got us sad Affleck back.  Ben is uncancelled!

 

44 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

c'mon you guys know they'd be goading people talking all about how avatar better than dune leading to twenty pages of a good time.

 

Did they get banned or did they realize that their gimmick will no longer work in a post covid world where Avatar 2 doesn't make anywhere near as much as the first movie?

 

Anyways, this has always been my favorite excerpt on RT for that movie.

 

ABPHQH0.png

Edited by Ozymandias
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41 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

c'mon you guys know they'd be goading people talking all about how avatar better than dune leading to twenty pages of a good time.

no-no-point.gif

This man is right. Bring back the AVATAR weirdos.

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Just now, Ozymandias said:

 

It may have been the great reviews hes been getting as an entertaining horny lord in The Last Duel that got us sad Affleck back.  Ben is uncancelled!

 

 

Did they get banned or did they realize that they're gimmick will no longer work in a post covid world where Avatar 2 doesn't make anywhere near as much as the first movie?

 

Anyways, this has always been my favorite excerpt on RT for that movie.

 

ABPHQH0.png

i dunno about ironjimbo but one of them got banned but keeps posting in the blog sidebar that nobody reads. He posted like three weeks ago that Avatar 2 was gonna make 4 billion dollars so covid has not deterred the cause.

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6 minutes ago, Schlorgan said:

It would be equally hilarious and tragic if it somehow came in under $30m.

I see you are new, I wouldn't read into Deadline, or any trade numbers, too much (they have been proven wrong time after time) @Menor in the tracking thread had it at a $13m Friday (could change as it is still early) which would make it pretty hard to not go over $30m. 

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2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i dunno about ironjimbo but one of them got banned but keeps posting in the blog sidebar that nobody reads. He posted like three weeks ago that Avatar 2 was gonna make 4 billion dollars so covid has not deterred the cause.

Good to see some people remain positive in the middle of all this chaos.

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3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i dunno about ironjimbo but one of them got banned but keeps posting in the blog sidebar that nobody reads. He posted like three weeks ago that Avatar 2 was gonna make 4 billion dollars so covid has not deterred the cause.

I don't know I thought it was aiming for 10 billies at one point sounds like that is quite the decrease Venom.png

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5 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

I don't know I thought it was aiming for 10 billies at one point sounds like that is quite the decrease Venom.png

Avatar 2 expectations are cRuMbLiNg :ohmygod:

Edited by Let There Be Legion
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23 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

I see you are new, I wouldn't read into Deadline, or any trade numbers, too much (they have been proven wrong time after time) @Menor in the tracking thread had it at a $13m Friday (could change as it is still early) which would make it pretty hard to not go over $30m. 

I don't think it's likely, I would just want to see the chaos because I'm a bad person.

Edited by Schlorgan
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3 hours ago, Jamiem said:

Let me know what you think of this once you get out. The trailer looks so damn good (it isn't out here until December) but I want to hear your thoughts :) 

Oh honey...

 

Phenomenal. Wonderful. Lovely. 110% my shit and then some. Wesley does it again!

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