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Eric Madrigal

Weekday Numbers (10/25-28) | Dune 3.65M Monday

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Most of the comps I’d prefer have a Columbus mon, but that looks like a pretty good shot to hold to a drop in the 50s (or maybe even high 40s?)   
 

Would be really impressed.

Edited by Let There Be Legion
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20 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Most of the comps I’d prefer have a Columbus mon, but that looks like a pretty good shot to hold to a drop in the 50s (or maybe even high 40s?)   
 

Would be really impressed.

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19 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

Most of the comps I’d prefer have a Columbus mon, but that looks like a pretty good shot to hold to a drop in the 50s (or maybe even high 40s?)   
 

Would be really impressed.

Yup. Speaks both to the older adult crowd and the PLF ticket prices. Should also lead to a cautious look at the Friday % increase, would tend to indicate a lower than "usual" one. I'd be way down for a big surprise though and anything over 18.5 (~55%) would be phenomenal when the previews, HBO and Halloween proper are factored in. 

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2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

People told me that a sub-50 drop wasn't gonna happen :Venom: 

People told me condescendingly that this was going to drop around 65-70% this weekend. When I asked said people why an adult oriented film that isn't a sequel or a film that had a massive Thursday preview number would drop 70% they explained to me that the $5 million dollars it made as a preview number is a huge amount and I felt like I was being spoken to like I was a brand new member who hadn't been following the box office for the last 35 years lol

 

I'm not sure it'll drop less than 50%, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's right around that area give or take a few percentage points.

 

 

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I mean, sorry, but looking at the preview raw magnitude is silly. 5M of a 30M open vs 50M vs 70M have very different implications for drop %. 2M out of 16M vs 5M out of 40 vs 30M out of 240M are pretty much the same.   
 

The problem wasn’t previews so much as the 2nd weekend history of max, but it looks like Dune may (or may not, chickens hatching etc) buck that trend, in which case props to it but acting like that was obvious is a bad take.

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Yeah, I can understand where the existing data and former releases point to. We know already that Dune is different from previous HBO Max releases in some ways, but the question is how much different it is to justify lower drop on the 2nd weekend. Here's what I wrote about it on the archived thread yesterday:

 

----------

 

I think Dune's next weekend's haul is $20m+ or damn near of it so even sub 50% drop possible. There's many pros & cons but here's the three things that make that weekend more special for Dune:

 

1) It hauled 50% this weekend gross from PLFs (almost quarter being from IMAX!) which was very much same as with Interstellar in addition to similar WOM. PLFs&IMAXs were a big part helping Interstellar drop only 40% the 2nd weekend and WOM to have long legs with 4.0 multiplier even past fierce competition. Even the demos aren't so far off. HBO Max cuts these numbers and especially legs but the PLFs will carry well next weekend ("must see on the biggest screen" has clearly worked to some extent). When Eternals arrive it's going to be somewhat brutal.

 

2) Maybe Conjuring 3 had the best 2nd weekend drop of -57% of the HBO Max releases so far. It had a relatively easy second weekend competition like Dune has next weekend. However as this weekend's Saturday bump and Sunday drop partly tell, Dune has better WOM than Conjuring 3 (or any other HBO Max release so far?) and should carry better results with its PLFs next weekend. This weekends OW/true Fri ratio with Dune was 2.90 where as with Conjuring 3 2.45 (NTTD had 2.88 which has been a close comparison with Dune other ways too). Dune will probably have some people that saw the movie on HBO to go to the cinema to see it again. More than other HBO Max releases for sure, not perhaps a huge amount, but still amount that could slice couple points out of the drop.

 

3) Ultimately while HBO drags the numbers down, WOM with the PLFs is the biggest decider for next weekend. Fans going multiple times, dragging their friends with them, and new people sharing how they were blown away. Sub 50% possible but in any case under 60%.

 

With Conjuring legs already Dune would gross over $110m in total.

 

Another example route to cross $100m would be Black Widow, if we turn its 2nd (-68%) and 3rd (-55%) weekend drops the other way around which would reflect better the non-competitive nature of Dune's next weekend plus we could even add weaker weekday legs for Dune than with BW, and still get over the 100 mark.

 

So for the 2nd weekend -50-55% drop.

Venom 2 roared to the Russian box office on Dune's 3rd weekend and cut it's legs by -63%. Expecting Eternals to do a bit more. Maybe -65-70%.

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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

50% drop isn't guaranteed yet. I can see it drop 55-60% from this Monday.

Agreed. Anything under 60% is a win already and things can change between now and Friday. It's a game of probabilities as always and we all throw our estimates out there. Though when you see with your experience it landing between 55-60% from Monday's data, that's great! 

 

If the actual drop would be between 60-65% Dune has still shot to $100m overall, but with 65-70% drop that's probably out of reach. 50-55% drop most likely takes it over $100m and 55-60% too unless it's a total crash with Eternals after that (e.g. -58% & -75%). Feeling confident about the $100m but hoping legs that carry it way over.

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Yeah even quite a modest mon multiplier will get it past GvK from here. Good to have another 100M grosser for the year, and impressive to have it be a free streaming release on a platform people actually use. Sequel is only a matter of time.

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Wow, good Monday for Dune. Hard to compare it to Bond since that was a US Holiday, but still a solid number regardless.

 

I'd caution against taking this as the sign of long-term legs though. It's just one day for now. Will need to see how it holds throughout the week. 

 

I winder if there is a spillover effect due to PLFs? Like maybe people couldn't get seats for IMAX for Sunday so they waited for Monday? Just spit-balling.

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6 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Wow, good Monday for Dune. Hard to compare it to Bond since that was a US Holiday, but still a solid number regardless.

 

I'd caution against taking this as the sign of long-term legs though. It's just one day for now. Will need to see how it holds throughout the week. 

 

I winder if there is a spillover effect due to PLFs? Like maybe people couldn't get seats for IMAX for Sunday so they waited for Monday? Just spit-balling.

 

Right, it is the 5 day OW weekend, and senior Monday discounts (and cheap Tuesdays) have been reinstated in many chains...and if older goers are gonna go, I expect they avoid weekends now more than ever...

 

Wednesday is the 1st important day for any legs...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Based on the PLF/IMAX capacity usage in some locations, there's definitely some spillover. Overall Dune's demo is older than MCU movies (70% over 25yrs) and probably there are a lot of people that didn't rush for the opening weekend (like myself). But that's a good thing that would mean Dune's audience scattering more widely and at the same time supressing a bit the OW.

 

Either way, I'm not going to give much weight for the Monday but will take it and enjoy that it was a great number itself. I wanna see all first weekdays to think any longer-term from them. Emphasising other factors when it comes to next weekend and legs generally.

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2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

IMAX/PLF spillover.

Overindexing in Canada, which holds better in weekdays than US but has smaller Friday bump.

Keep trying Charlie.... when the moans start with Fridays increase we cant say there wasn't conversation. 

 

Also looks like your original 3.75m was nearly spot on. 

 

Edited by narniadis
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