Eternals Weekend Thread: 71M OW DOM, 90M OS | Dune 7.6M (-50%), NTTD 6.2M, Venom 4.5M, Spencer 2.1M

[Noctis]

RottenTomatoes has become extremely mainstream - but it has reached a point where so many will see a film with 68% or 75% and be like oh, this movie got D+ and a C...

 

And this has become more common with having to scroll down to see the consensus. RT is fun for a movie you are deeply anticipating - but it has become gospel to too many. People will see a 90% film and automatically assume it's leagues better than a 75% film yet their average rating is identical or even tilts higher in the lower %. 

[filmlover]

Vague Red Notice numbers:

 

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That’s when we turn our attention to Netflix’s one week theatrical release of the $200M Dwayne Johnson, Gal Gadot and Ryan Reynolds production Red Notice. Now while Netflix has been very good about revealing their global viewership figures publicly down the road as opposed to other streamers, and I’m sure Red Notice will rank among their most-watched movies (how can it not) when it drops on Nov. 12, Netflix is shielding their box office in Comscore from rival distributors which isn’t proper box office etiquette. I also hear the movie, which is booked in 750 theaters, is grossing well under $1M. Like, not even close.

‘Eternals’ Eyes $70M+ Box Office Opening Weekend After $30M Projected Friday – Deadline

[Maggie]

Red Notice looks so outdated. It would have flopped hard in normal times, in theaters. I can't believe Netflix spent so much money on it

[Plain Old Tele]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I've been getting nonstop marketing for House of Gucci on YouTube this week. MGM isn't fucking around with this release  

Is YT marketing remotely effective?

[filmlover]

Just now, Maggie said:

Red Notice looks so outdated. It would have flopped hard in normal times, in theaters. I can't believe Netflix spent so much money on it

Without any box office to report, the three big stars need to be well-compensated somehow. I think it was reported LMM and Andrew Garfield were paid big time for Tick, Tick...Boom! as well.

[SchumacherFTW]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

 

More polarized here. Tons are still terrified. Others are actively trying to get covid by acting like idiots

Oh believe me, that's definitely the case here in blighty too. But we drop everything for a bond movie. Maybe that'll happen for spidey or something else. Who knows.

[grey ghost]

I think King Richard could be the oscar bait movie that crosses 100m.

 

Still not an easy task.

[CoolioD1]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Red Notice looks so outdated. It would have flopped hard in normal times, in theaters. I can't believe Netflix spent so much money on it

Netflix's whole business model is getting 80 million people to watch something that would've been the bomb of the year in theaters.

[TwoMisfits]

23 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Has any non-franchise movie crossed 100 m during the pandemic?

 

Ummm, Free Guy and Jungle Cruise this summer...

[von Kenni]

16 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

People take the Marvel "formula" completely for granted.

 

MCU is successful because people know what to expect.

 

You wouldn't loyally drink coke or pepsi if it tasted like sparkling water every other time you bought it.

 

It would make more sense to revamp Marvel and re-invent the wheel after audiences rejected the Marvel formula but that hasn't happened yet.

 

Film school experimentation when people want their formula fix is just going to alienate audiences.

 

I mean something like Joker was widly successful but they had to separate that from the DCEU completely. 

 

It wouldn't work in the same universe as Shazam and Aquaman. 

Fair points and definitely affect a lot.

 

Still like that Joker or Logan, I think there is room for experimentation as long as the movie is good storytelling wise and characters work. I'm not buying that Eternals "rotten" state is mostly or mainly due to not corresponding the expectation of a MCU movie even though it is a factor to certain extent.

 

People time to time crave novelty and something fresh. But I agree that there is a certain MCU success formula like you described that they should rely on for the unforeseeable future and try to mainly find that novelty inside those parameters. As you said the experimentations could happen more separately from the MCU itself.

 

Also wondering how much importance does that formula have for the GA. I'd assume that they have more room to move in than the fandom on the issue.

Edited November 6, 2021 by von Kenni
GA point

[Legion Again]

The “ceiling” (dumb concept) is whatever TFA would make if it released for th first time this Dec. 750M+ imo

[James]

If reviews are good I could see Gucci doing 30m OW. True, older audiences are more reluctant these days, but it's not like we don't see movies like Dune or NTTD reaching higher numbers.

And aside from those, did we really have any big adult titles, in wide release, with any real hype released lately?

You could argue The Last Duel but that never had hype, the trailer views are abysmal, especially for a movie with a well known cast. 

 

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Is YT marketing remotely effective?

For younger audiences, definitely. I bet the demo breakdown will be strong.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, James said:

If reviews are good I could see Gucci doing 30m OW. True, older audiences are more reluctant these days, but it's not like we don't see movies like Dune or NTTD reaching higher numbers.

And aside from those, did we really have any big adult titles, in wide release, with any real hype released lately?

You could argue The Last Duel but that never had hype, the trailer views are abysmal, especially for a movie with a well known cast. 

 

Also worth noting that Gucci has been marketed with Dolby Cinema in its ads; that will help its first two weeks depending how many showtimes it gets vs Ghostbusters and/or Encanto

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

For younger audiences, definitely.

Y'all insane. 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I think King Richard could be the oscar bait movie that crosses 100m.

 

Still not an easy task.

In normal times yes. But between HBO Max and the aforementioned "target audience not returning to theaters" woes it'll likely open in the same single digits range as every other adult drama in the COVID era has.

[Legion Again]

My off the cuff, not much thought remark from last weekend thread:

 

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Duel+Dispatch+Soho+Richard+Gucci under Halloween.

More serious analysis:

Duel — 11

dispatch — 14

Soho — 15 

Halloween —  93  

 

Can Richard+Gucci go below 63M? Sure, why not. Maybe we can throw Spencer in too. We haven’t seen this kind of movie attract the GA to cinemas yet and I’m not betting on it until it happens.

[John Marston]

Isn’t it amazing that despite trailers and other marketing being able to reach far more eyes thanks to social media and YouTube  it doesn’t tend to make any difference in tickets sold?

[James]

Plus on the Gucci discussion, I don't think it will skew as old as people think. Gaga and Driver (post SW) have their younger fans. Imo, I think it will go like The Great Gatsby, similar somptuos drama with over 30% of the OW audience under 25.

[Menor the Destroyer]

59 minutes ago, YourMother said:

 

You know what else is a worse blockbuster than Episode 2?

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Far Fr…

  Reveal hidden contents

Gets tackled by the mods like

 

 

 

Yes, Far From Home is worse than Episode 2. Both well above average blockbusters but the superior action/visuals/score in Episode 2 gives it the edge