Eternals Weekend Thread: 71M OW DOM, 90M OS | Dune 7.6M (-50%), NTTD 6.2M, Venom 4.5M, Spencer 2.1M

[Fox20]

 

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

To be fair; this is post End Game and the MCU brand is stronger than before. 

We also have Angelina Jolie’s debut in the MCU.

 

I am not sure actually how many MCU fans worldwide are comic book readers? Like I don’t think there is a huge difference in terms of “recognisability” between GoTG and Eternals for the GA (before their respective movies were released). I think people know it’s MCU and they will give it a chance and watch it.

 

If Eternals had better reviews (I.e above 90% on RT), I think more GA will be curious and I think a better OW will be expected. The obscurity of these characters (for an origin film) at this stage isn’t really a factor IMO, at least for the MCU. 

It's irrelevant if Angelina is there, it's not like she has massive hits outside Maleficent and in these days almost no one has star power to make a difference, except maybe Will Smith and Leo Dicaprio.

Edited November 7, 2021 by Fox20

[lorddemaxus]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

RIP this board if NWH "only" does 150/525.    

I shudder to think what would happen to this board if it does "just" 120/400.

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

RIP this board if NWH "only" does 150/525.    

Personally would be fine with that but if it did <450 would be kinda disappointing imo unless (and this isn't impossible) Covid cases are in a really bad spot and trending badly during December. 

 

Like yeah it's better than anything post-pandemic but honestly we haven't had a really big blockbuster post-pandemic either. This has way more hype than FFH which did 390. 

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I shudder to think what would happen to this board if it does "just" 120/400.

Expectations are different for different types of films. This is a big crossover event film and will be judged by that standard. 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Menor

[XXR vs XXR]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

RIP this board if NWH "only" does 150/525.    

 

I'd live with it beating TROS, but beating Avatar is juicier...  

 

 

Edited November 7, 2021 by VenomXXR

[poncho]

 

[grim22]

18 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This board fails to understand there is a RAGING GLOBAL PANDEMIC happening right now + change of habits causes people to not go to theaters anymore and just wait for VOD/streaming.

Theaters are dead. Long live Streaming.

[CoolioD1]

Just now, grim22 said:

Theaters are dead. Long live Streaming.

more people are gonna watch 2 minutes of red notice than all the films we've been talking about for the past month. that's just facts.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah NWH is the first film in a long time that would have been locked to hit $1 Billion in pre-COVID times. So maybe we might see if that does bonkers that audiences are just becoming more picker and safer with their choices as opposed to avoiding the cinema altogether. 

[Krissykins]

52 minutes ago, babz06 said:

The last Scream made 38million total domestically. I dont see it has major competition. 

I didn’t say it was competition. The original poster just said major release. 

[Eric Duncan]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

Personally would be fine with that but if it did <450 would be kinda disappointing imo unless (and this isn't impossible) Covid cases are in a really bad spot and trending badly during December. 

 

Like yeah it's better than anything post-pandemic but honestly we haven't had a really big blockbuster post-pandemic either. This has way more hype than FFH which did 390. 

Expectations are different for different types of films. This is a big crossover event film and will be judged by that standard. 

I talked with Cap about this earlier today, but the big issue is that even predicting as little as 400M feels like a herculean task to me, because we are still in a transitional, "things trying to go back to normal" phase.

 

Openings are fine, but totals still aren't what they're used to be. Shang-Chi's still only at about 223M. It'll finish at like 235M or something. Expecting a film to double from this high in just three months? That's a pretty steep record bar to get to. And even with Christmas legs, it's offset by the fact it'll lose IMAX after 5 days to Matrix and King's Man, and PLFs are the only thing people are buying tickets for these days.

 

It just seems like people are setting themselves up for disappointment and still in their pre-pandemic mindset. And honestly, totals-wise, who knows if we'll ever get back to those 500M/600M milestones again?

 

inb4 I get any "hahas"

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Yeah NWH is the first film in a long time that would have been locked to hit $1 Billion in pre-COVID times. So maybe we might see if that does bonkers that audiences are just becoming more picker and safer with their choices as opposed to avoiding the cinema altogether. 

Honestly, I don't see evidence of people avoiding cinemas for these blockbuster films. It's smaller films that are struggling. Theatrical exclusive blockbusters have been doing normal numbers for a while now. Yes there have been some disappointments, but there will always be those. They're part of "normal" as much as the successes. 

[CJohn]

6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Theaters are dead. Long live Streaming.

This is, unfortunately, the truth. Red Notice is gonna destroy everything.

[ACSlater]

13 minutes ago, poncho said:

 

Its close enough...

 

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Honestly, I don't see evidence of people avoiding cinemas for these blockbuster films. 

In a “normal” year we would’ve had multiple 300m+ domestic movies so far (and possibly one or more 400m ones). Nothing has come remotely close, and for the moment 200 seems like the new 400. Is it possible that changes in December? Sure, but I don’t think we can expect it to happen. 
 

It’s more than just audience reticence — there’s been widespread disruption in employment, theaters closing or reducing showtimes, and the like. All that isn’t going to change in a month. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

Openings are fine, but totals still aren't what they're used to be. Shang-Chi's still only at about 223M. It'll finish at like 235M or something. Expecting a film to double from this high in just three months? That's a pretty steep record bar to get to. And even with Christmas legs, it's offset by the fact it'll lose IMAX after 5 days to Matrix and King's Man, and PLFs are the only thing people are buying tickets for these days.

 

It just seems like people are setting themselves up for disappointment and still in their pre-pandemic mindset. And honestly, totals-wise, who knows if we'll ever get back to those 500M/600M milestones again?

I guess in normalcy I would expected NWH to do more than double Shang-Chi. There is a huge difference between event films and solo films. I don't think we've had anything close to the caliber of No Way Home since the pandemic to say that 400 or 500 million is such an impossible task. Honestly, are people here more Covid-cautious than the UK that Bond can break all sorts of records but we can't have a movie beat 400? If anything, I would say people are less cautious here. 

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, Menor said:

I guess in normalcy I would expected NWH to do more than double Shang-Chi. There is a huge difference between event films and solo films. I don't think we've had anything close to the caliber of No Way Home since the pandemic to say that 400 or 500 million is such an impossible task. Honestly, are people here more Covid-cautious than the UK that Bond can break all sorts of records but we can't have a movie beat 400? If anything, I would say people are less cautious here. 

 

What is the “caliber” of NWH? The film hasn’t been released yet. It’s also (allegedly) long as hell, which is gonna cut into showtimes unless theaters do the sort of hiring and showtime staggering that so far they’ve been unwilling to do. 

[CJohn]

If NHW does 400M DOM it will be a major victory. This was a 600M+ monster in a normal market.

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

In a “normal” year we would’ve had multiple 300m+ domestic movies so far (and possibly one or more 400m ones). Nothing has come remotely close, and for the moment 200 seems like the new 400. Is it possible that changes in December? Sure, but I don’t think we can expect it to happen. 
 

It’s more than just audience reticence — there’s been widespread disruption in employment, theaters closing or reducing showtimes, and the like. All that isn’t going to change in a month. 

But the blockbuster releases that would get those numbers haven't really been present, 2020 was always looking like a down year for the Dom BO, and 2021 has mostly been the delayed releases. We are missing Wonder Woman which would have done big numbers, GvK which would have been an easy breakout was locked in bad conditions, BW pushed to PA, Eternals getting quite bad reviews and reactions, etc. Look at the lineup compared to 2019, the caliber of releases isn't even close. 2022 will be the year to do bigger numbers. 

 

Btw, responding to your other post, by caliber I mean anticipation/buzz. Also I think reduced showtimes wouldn't matter that much in Christmas since people are willing to go to the movies on many days anyway. If there aren't enough showtimes on one day business would shift to the following ones. 

Edited November 7, 2021 by Menor

[CoolioD1]

13 minutes ago, Eric loves Ajak said:

I talked with Cap about this earlier today, but the big issue is that even predicting as little as 400M feels like a herculean task to me, because we are still in a transitional, "things trying to go back to normal" phase.

 

Openings are fine, but totals still aren't what they're used to be. Shang-Chi's still only at about 223M. It'll finish at like 235M or something. Expecting a film to double from this high in just three months? That's a pretty steep record bar to get to. And even with Christmas legs, it's offset by the fact it'll lose IMAX after 5 days to Matrix and King's Man, and PLFs are the only thing people are buying tickets for these days.

 

It just seems like people are setting themselves up for disappointment and still in their pre-pandemic mindset. And honestly, totals-wise, who knows if we'll ever get back to those 500M/600M milestones again?

 

inb4 I get any "hahas"

i think you gotta look at the UK #s. our box office had been slower than the US until No Time to Die came and blew it up, has made over 4x as much as the #2 film of the year (shang chi) and is the top 5 highest grossers of all-time. if spider-man has the demand it'll blow up

[Mr Terrific]

NWH has many obvious pluses, but as others have covered, the global pandemic that has killed millions is still going on. There are going to be about a dozen $100m movies domestically. 
If NWH does $345m domestically, that puts it at 50% bigger than second place, that’s monstrous.