CONTEST FOR GOLD: Spidey: No Way Home Opening Weekend Predictions | RESULTS ARE IN!

[KP1025]

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
KP1025	$30,200,000	$49,500,000	$54,400,000	$46,200,000	$180,300,000

[TwoMisfits]

On 11/12/2021 at 3:11 PM, Cap said:

 

 

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
TwoMisfits	$24.10M	$47.69M	$53.11M	$42.11M	$167.01M

 

Let me put in a number, and then see presale sets for Thursday showing start times when we get closer and adjust...since I'm in the $200M club, well, I gotta have a number that gets to $200M, at least to start, so here goes...

 

EDIT on 11/25 - just don't like presets at my Cinemark/Regal theaters for Thurs or Fri/Sat/Sun, so I gotta drop my predict...I'm hoping I regret this, and I'm still actually higher than I would be if the sets don't change more favorably, but I'm gonna be optimistic...

Edited November 25, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[baumer]

10 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Somebody has be the lowball entry. 

 

I might go lower

[Legion Again]

BO Boomers vs Zoomers: the contest

[baumer]

Preview:  16.5

Friday:  48.5

Sat:  36.75

Sun: 29.5

 

114.755

[baumer]

Ok, not lower, but right around the original in 2002.

[Liiviig 1998]

USERNAME	PREVIEWS	TRUE FRIDAY	SATURDAY	SUNDAY	TOTAL
Liivig	27.5M	55M	66.5M	53.2M	202.2M

[Issac Newton]

Some are placing values at $200M. But, it will be shocking if it failed to crack $100M barrier 🚧

[baumer]

I don't see why you guys have it increasing on Saturday. If it has a monster preview number it's 100% going to decrease on Saturday.

[Deep Wang]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

I don't see why you guys have it increasing on Saturday. If it has a monster preview number it's 100% going to decrease on Saturday.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think most of them have it increasing from the true Friday number.  

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

I don't see why you guys have it increasing on Saturday. If it has a monster preview number it's 100% going to decrease on Saturday.

This is true Friday. I used Rogue One for a comp, then took MCU strong Saturdays and cancelled it out with Sat being kinda weak this year.

[Legion Again]

I'll just drop this again if anybody wants a quick reference:

 

Movie	Th	TFri	Sat	Sun	prev %	Fri/Th	Sat/Fri	Sun/Sat	true IM	IM
TFA	$54,000,000	$65,119,282	$68,294,204	$60,553,189	0.4533	1.2059	1.0488	0.8867	2.9786	4.5920
RO	$29,000,000	$42,094,394	$46,308,115	$37,679,172	0.4079	1.4515	1.1001	0.8137	2.9952	5.3476
TLJ	$45,000,000	$59,684,491	$63,993,205	$51,331,888	0.4299	1.3263	1.0722	0.8021	2.9322	4.8891
TROS	$40,000,000	$49,615,288	$47,467,565	$40,301,011	0.4464	1.2404	0.9567	0.8490	2.7690	4.4346
Geomean	$40,974,727	$53,376,823	$55,672,784	$46,610,674	0.4340	1.3027	1.0430	0.8372	2.9174	4.8035
weighted(5:3:1:2)	$42,448,584	$54,590,792	$57,157,654	$48,671,360	0.4371	1.2860	1.0470	0.8515	2.9396	4.7837
NWH	36000000	60000000	64800000	55080000	0.3750	1.6667	1.0800	0.8500	2.9980	5.9967

 

 

The tfa Th is an est rather than the initially reported fig, just ignore that bit if you prefer.

[Deep Wang]

14 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

I can't come up with one below $150M (as long as current circumstances stay as they are.) Looking at all the scenarios, nothing will allow me to believe the hype we're seeing for this can go below this number. Even if it's trash, it's going to do at least $70M Friday (w/ previews). 

 

That's what I keep coming back to.  I'm starting with the previews and I don't see how this could possibly do less than $30m.  So if it does $30m in previews, I also don't see it missing $150m.  

 

Obviously, this could easily do less than $30m! However, I'm going on the assumption that we haven't hit some kind of cap on admissions and that nothing happens that will impact it down the line.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

That's what I keep coming back to.  I'm starting with the previews and I don't see how this could possibly do less than $30m.  So if it does $30m in previews, I also don't see it missing $150m.  

 

Obviously, this could easily do less than $30m! However, I'm going on the assumption that we haven't hit some kind of cap on admissions and that nothing happens that will impact it down the line.

 

The main thing I'm leaning on that there's nothing inherently holding back the box office is what NTTD did in the UK. Essentially it's done the equivalent of $700M comparatively. I don't believe that US audiences lack the will or ability to go to the cinema compared to the UK (when has the US as a whole ever been more hesitant than a European counterpart)? I just think we haven't had our NTTD eqiuivalent film that will drive out the masses. NWH will be that film. 

 

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The main thing I'm leaning on that there's nothing inherently holding back the box office is what NTTD did in the UK. Essentially it's done the equivalent of $700M comparatively. I don't believe that US audiences lack the will or ability to go to the cinema compared to the UK (when has the US as a whole ever been more hesitant than a European counterpart)? I just think we haven't had our NTTD eqiuivalent film that will drive out the masses. NWH will be that film. 

 

Exactly!

 

All things being equal, if we are just waiting for that BIG THING, then this is it.

 

As long as [REDACTED] and [REDACTED] of course, lol.

[Plain Old Tele]

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Edited November 13, 2021 by Plain Old Tele

[SnokesLegs]

Previews: $21.4

Friday: $53.1

Saturday: $47.8
Sunday: $38.7

Total: $161.0

 

I don’t think it’ll open as big as one of the main Star Wars episodes, Spidey isn’t as big of a draw with older people in the way that SW is. It’s undoubtedly going to be bigger than anything else this year, but I reckon there’s still going to be enough theatrical hesitancy on opening weekend that stops it exploding to what it could have done pre-pandemic. It’ll leg out though, and I’m fully expecting it to bring back confidence in cinema-going in the same way that Bond did in the UK.

[Deep Wang]

8 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Who is “we”?

 

You know damn well I am not talking about you old man!

[Menor the Destroyer]

25 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Previews: $21.4

Friday: $53.1

Saturday: $47.8
Sunday: $38.7

Total: $161.0

 

I don’t think it’ll open as big as one of the main Star Wars episodes, Spidey isn’t as big of a draw with older people in the way that SW is. It’s undoubtedly going to be bigger than anything else this year, but I reckon there’s still going to be enough theatrical hesitancy on opening weekend that stops it exploding to what it could have done pre-pandemic. It’ll leg out though, and I’m fully expecting it to bring back confidence in cinema-going in the same way that Bond did in the UK.

You think Friday will be 2.5x previews? I can't see that happening. MCU movies in the preview range you have (low 20s) usually have Friday ~= 2x previews. 

Edited November 13, 2021 by Menor

[Plain Old Tele]

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Edited November 13, 2021 by Plain Old Tele