Weekend Thread (11/12-14) | Eternals 7.82 Fri, Clifford 4.22

[von Kenni]

 

If this holds, much more than I was expecting and great result at this point.

[Liiviig 1998]

Just now, von Kenni said:

Well, I'll be damned, the +51% Sat for Eternals is more than decent. Looking these estimates, they aren't expecting bigger than normal Sunday drops like in 2010 (maybe that data and comparison is pretty useless...). With these estimates they are expecting just 33.5% Sun drop!?

Actuals may end up lower for all this projections . Suns post v day 

Seem to be bigger from the 2010 data. Let's see what happens.

 

[titanic2187]

Saturday surge prove that the Friday was more like a just normal Friday than like a semi-Saturday.  

[Liiviig 1998]

Third weekends post v day also tend to drop abit . So we could see some 50-55% drops next weekend. Will see.

[john2000]

 

 

[john2000]

 

 

[EmpireCity]

Dune would have gotten to $500m if not having been fucked by HBOMax.  

[john2000]

 

[John Marston]

 

[titanic2187]

Belfast opening PTA is so much better than Spencer although Spencer look more accessible by marketing. Spencer debut scale was a bit too wide and too fast. 

 

And despite solid numbers, TFD will likely be the lowest grossing Anderson's film since Fantastic Mr.Fox, signaling the tepid recovery of indie markets. Just realised Moonrise Kingdom did 45m in 2012, what a crazy gross for an indie film

 

[ThomasNicole]

Decent for Eternals, unless it crumbles next weekend should finish with 170-180M.

 

 

[von Kenni]

14 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Dune would have gotten to $500m if not having been fucked by HBOMax.  

Yeah, 1/3 of HBO Max subscribers are outside the US plus of course the early piracy it resulted in. If I understood right (and being true in my local market), Dune was streaming on HBO Max everywhere starting Oct 21st (or at least those countries where it had already being released in theater too).

 

With its legs it can still get to $375-380m range and then Aus, NZ & Vietnam probably bring in about $13m but who knows, with some overperformance magic and later fudging it just might finish around $400m even though probabilities are against it right now.

 

Shai-Hulud will storm in with Part 2 and then the desert wall will be broken for good.

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Belfast opening PTA is so much better than Spencer although Spencer look more accessible by marketing. Spencer debut scale was a bit too wide and too fast. 

 

Belfast is considered one of the Best Picture frontrunners. Not too much of a surprise its PTA was solid (for a sorta wide releasing indie in the pandemic era, that is).

[SpiderByte]

44 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Saturday surge prove that the Friday was more like a just normal Friday than like a semi-Saturday.  

My thoughts as well. I was surprised at the takes of an inflated Friday since I (and presumably others) didn't have Veterans day off, so the 4 day weekend angle always seemed weird to me.

[wildphantom]

I’ve no idea why Warner Bros aren’t going two weeks early with Matrix internationally. 

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I’ve no idea why Warner Bros aren’t going two weeks early with Matrix internationally. 

 

 

release a trailer a couple months before release, day and date streaming, 5 days after Spider-Man. They don't' care

[Krissykins]

Great holds for Dune, No Time To Die and Venom. I know a few people in the daily numbers thread were saying just one week ago that Sony would have to fudge Venom over $200m in December….

 

 

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

NTTD is looking for a 2.85x legs by end of its run, which is about the same as Spectre in 2015. I am surprised by the same level of hold between both movies since Spectre had the advantage of being closer to both Veteran Day and Thanksgiving yet NTTD somehow overcome those disadvantage..  

Funny data point: Dune is still following meticulously NTTD's legs. It's been consistently ca. 4% short from NTTD's legs. At the end of 2nd weekend -4.2%, 3rd -4.1%, 4th (now) -4.0%. I've been waiting when Dune starts to drop a but further, but haven't happened yet. IF this would continue, it would mean Dune finishing 2.85x -4.1% ~ 2.73x OW ~ $112m.

[Cmasterclay]

Low key one of the better weekends of the pandemic box office. Great holds for everything, a mid-sized family opener, and three movies doing relatively well in the new version of "platform" release. Some foundational health returning to the box office, even if the ceiling is still hurting bad. 

[Maggie]

20 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

 the ceiling is still hurting bad. 

yeah, that's why i find these Spidey predictions really crazy.