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Weekdays Thread 11/15-18 | Thu - Ghostbusters Afterlife $4.5m P - Who you gonna call? / C $0.65m -9% / D $0.46m -5% / N $0.38m -2% / V $0.25m -8%

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Nov 15th actuals...updating as they come in.

 

    Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per
Thr
Total
Gross
D
1 (1) Eternals Walt Disney $1,701,899 -76% -60% 4,090 $416 $119,817,282 11
2 (2) Clifford the Big Red Dog Paramount Pi… $780,038 -84%   3,700 $211 $22,988,304 6
3 (3) Dune Warner Bros. $448,117 -70% -32% 3,282 $137 $93,617,408 25
4 (4) No Time to Die United Artists $365,720 -67% -30% 2,867 $128 $150,755,083 39
5 (5) Venom: Let There be Carnage Sony Pictures $255,073 -75% -15% 2,538 $101 $202,882,418 46
6 (7) The French Dispatch Searchlight … $175,135 -62% -34% 1,225 $143 $11,709,830 25
7 (8) Belfast Focus Features $162,095 -63%   580 $279 $1,941,505 4
8 (6) Ron’s Gone Wrong 20th Century… $104,316 -83% -35% 2,430 $43 $20,879,030 25
- (-) Antlers Searchlight … $97,194 -65% -48% 1,825 $53 $9,664,639 18
- (-) Last Night in Soho Focus Features $86,610 -59% -53% 1,341 $65 $9,452,845 18
- (-) Halloween Kills Universal $71,800 -70% -55% 1,994 $36 $91,498,250 32
- (-) The Addams Family 2 United Artists $38,189 -80% -46% 1,322 $29 $56,042,041 46
- (-) Shang-Chi and the Legend … Walt Disney $18,405 -65% -74% 335 $55 $224,400,854 74
- (-) The Last Duel 20th Century… $11,899 -58% -28% 250 $48 $10,708,908 32
- (-) Free Guy 20th Century… $2,911 -70% -37% 85 $34 $121,572,731 95
- (-) Dear Evan Hansen Universal $2,610 -65% +128% 175 $15 $14,987,876 53
- (-) Jungle Cruise Walt Disney $1,137 -72% -37% 60 $19 $116,976,030 109
                     
    17   $4,323,148          
Edited by von Kenni
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Tue Nov 16th. Updating as we go.

 

    Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per
Thr
Total
Gross
D
1 (1) Eternals Walt Disney $2,181,960 +28% -58% 4,090 $533 $121,999,242 12
- (3) Dune Warner Bros. $561,464 +25% -30% 3,282 $171 $94,178,872 26
- (4) No Time to Die United Artists $452,125 +24% -32% 2,867 $158 $151,207,208 40
- (5) Venom: Let There be Carnage Sony Pictures $298,215 +17% -10% 2,538 $118 $203,180,633 47
- (7) Belfast Focus Features $220,060 +36%   580 $379 $2,161,565 5
- (6) The French Dispatch Searchlight … $214,183 +22% -32% 1,225 $175 $11,924,013 26
- (8) Ron’s Gone Wrong 20th Century… $129,810 +24% -20% 2,430 $53 $21,008,840 26
- (-) Antlers Searchlight … $114,865 +18% -44% 1,825 $63 $9,779,504 19
- (-) Last Night in Soho Focus Features $113,385 +31% -50% 1,341 $85 $9,566,230 19
- (-) Halloween Kills Universal $74,400 +4% -49% 1,994 $37 $91,572,650 33
- (-) The Addams Family 2 United Artists $43,848 +15% -37% 1,322 $33 $56,085,889 47
- (-) Shang-Chi and the Legend … Walt Disney $20,124 +9% -73% 335 $60 $224,420,978 75
- (-) The Last Duel 20th Century… $16,112 +35% -4% 250 $64 $10,725,020 33
- (-) Free Guy 20th Century… $3,619 +24% -15% 85 $43 $121,576,350 96
- (-) Dear Evan Hansen Universal $2,535 -3% +114% 175 $14 $14,990,411 54
- (-) Jungle Cruise Walt Disney $1,047 -8% -47% 60 $17 $116,977,077 110
                     
    16   $4,447,752          
Edited by von Kenni
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2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Eternals seems to be doing good this week.

 

Unless Ghostbusters hurt it really bad, i think it's heading to 2.5 - 2.6x OW, which is good considering the B Cinemascore.

Having seen it last night finally, its droppage is better than I would've guessed if I had seen the movie on OW. I guess that's the powerz of Marvel. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Eternals seems to be doing good this week.

 

Unless Ghostbusters hurt it really bad, i think it's heading to 2.5 - 2.6x OW, which is good considering the B Cinemascore.


Doctor strange

74.7%
40.9%
-33.6%
-15.4%
+129.6%
+64%
-35%

Thor ragnarok
-75%
+21.4%
-35%
-17.1%
+137%
+66.7%
-33.3%

It's drops have  been closer to ragnarok which dropped 62% third weekend.

It's

Playing like ragnarok onwards gets it to 175m.(2.45x)

Playing like DS which had better drops than eternals so far gets it to 178m(2.5x)

Thursday should be around 1.2m for 
a 10.5-12m weekend
(55-61% drop)

2.4- 2.5x legs are more likely.
 

Edited by Liiviig 1998
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Wed Nov 17th coming up...

 

    Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per
Thr
Total
Gross
D
1 (1) Eternals Walt Disney $1,614,457 -26% -62% 4,090 $395 $123,613,699 13
- (2) Clifford the Big Red Dog Paramount Pi… $715,084 -33% -69% 3,700 $193 $24,763,839 8
- (4) No Time to Die United Artists $391,647 -13% -41% 2,867 $137 $151,598,855 41
- (5) Venom: Let There be Carnage Sony Pictures $270,342 -9% -28% 2,538 $107 $203,450,975 48
- (7) The French Dispatch Searchlight … $204,459 -5% -36% 1,225 $167 $12,128,472 27
- (6) Belfast Focus Features $173,645 -21%   580 $299 $2,335,210 6
- (8) Ron’s Gone Wrong 20th Century… $102,651 -21% -36% 2,430 $42 $21,111,491 27
- (-) Last Night in Soho Focus Features $100,425 -11% -51% 1,341 $75 $9,666,655 20
- (-) Antlers Searchlight … $99,596 -13% -53% 1,825 $55 $9,879,100 20
- (-) Halloween Kills Universal $67,915 -9% -58% 1,994 $34 $91,640,565 34
- (-) The Addams Family 2 United Artists $35,007 -20% -49% 1,322 $26 $56,120,896 48
- (-) Shang-Chi and the Legend … Walt Disney $17,397 -14% -75% 335 $52 $224,438,375 76
- (-) The Last Duel 20th Century… $14,999 -7% -13% 250 $60 $10,740,019 34
- (-) Dear Evan Hansen Universal $6,130 +142% +428% 175 $35 $14,996,541 55
- (-) Free Guy 20th Century… $3,940 +9% -41% 85 $46 $121,580,290 97
- (-) Jungle Cruise Walt Disney $1,243 +19% -60% 60 $21 $116,978,320 111
                     
    16   $3,818,937          
Edited by von Kenni
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1 minute ago, john2000 said:

@charlie Jatinder knows better, but the movie will probably break even in the end, one way or another.

other person is @Barnack. Based on data leaks from Sony, studios have costs beyond just production costs. Plus not every market return 50%. it varies by market. Asia is well lower while europe is closer to US which has higher return during OW. 

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From last few weeks I am following a notion that film primarily need to recover its release cost at box office and then contribute to the budget. Whatever remaining, can be covered from TV, SVOD, etc.

 

Eternals will probably make $170M DOM & $280M INT, for ~$210-220M revenue to Disney. The release cost are roughly $100M or lower with no China and lower than pre CoVID print fees in many markets. The surplus from this $110-120M goes to Production Budget recovery. Add in the TV + SVOD revenue of ~$200M, mostly in-house valuation, and whatever it make from Home Media. 

 

There's delay costs and all that stuff, but let's ignore them.

 

PS. I don't know much about Hollywood specific, just general how films economics works. @Barnack is absolutely the guy for this, whom I often cc on this stuff.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Yeah, I wouldn't think 2x yet to be breakeven. Although if all that would be outside China, it's closer to BE but depending the IP's potential in the additional revenue streams and the real production budget after incentives and other accounting gimmicks (you want to make profit without showing it to minimize taxes) BE could be between 2.2-2.4 for Eternals. BE here covering all the costs. 

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