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von Kenni

Weekdays Thread 11/15-18 | Thu - Ghostbusters Afterlife $4.5m P - Who you gonna call? / C $0.65m -9% / D $0.46m -5% / N $0.38m -2% / V $0.25m -8%

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3 hours ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

As others have said, Eternals doesn’t get that money; it’s own marketing spend would’ve been $150m+. Black Widow was obviously available online, too. 
 

2 hours ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

 

I only posted because it feels like Eternals is being crucified unfaily for its numbers,

I wouldn’t say it’s being crucified, Eternals just underperformed and missed industry tracking/expectations. 

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5 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 

HBO Max stopped it from doing 150M in USA (maybe more). For Eternals to struggle to even beat Dune WW is beyond embarrassing.

Eternals, a movie that opened in most territories in November 3rd is taking less than 3 weeks to equal a movie that started to premiere in plenty of countries in mid september and opened in the USA 2 weeks before it...that's not a struggle in any way. 

Edited by TiagoRodrigues
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7 minutes ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

Eternals, a movie that opened in most territories in November 3rd is taking less than 3 weeks to equal a movie that started to premiere in plenty of countries in mid september and opened in the USA 2 weeks before it...that's not a struggle in any way. 

 

H B O     M A X

 

I made in larger font for you in case you missed it. 

 

Dune had a staggered start worldwide. Its still not opened here in Australia (or NZ). I just dont think your taking a reasonable view of things but that's ok. Just start with HBO Max and then move onto HBO Max and finish with some HBO Max and you will be all good in understanding how Dune compares worldwide to Eternals (when they finish will be roughly the same in the end). 

Edited by Ronin46
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2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

last ditch attempt to get the fangirls in the cinemas think we can spoil this now if the official account is

 

 

It was actually never a spoiler. The cameo and role was reported by someone months ago.

 

Edit: Like this is a tweet months ago.

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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3 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 

H B O     M A X

 

I made in larger font for you in case you missed it. 

 

Dune had a staggered start worldwide. Its still not opened here in Australia (or NZ). I just dont think your taking a reasonable view of things but that's ok. Just start with HBO Max and then move onto HBO Max and finish with some HBO Max and you will be all good in understanding how Dune compares worldwide to Eternals (when they finish will be roughly the same in the end). 

It was only on HBO Max in the US and it also got a Chinese release which Eternals didn't get.

Edited by poweranimals
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9 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

It was only on HBO Max in the US and it also got a Chinese release which Eternals didn't get.

you had 4k quality print on internet too early. That definitely has an impact greater than just US. 

 

Dune BO run >> Eternals. Eternals underperformed huge. Just look at clubs threads and how many people joined them. 

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9 hours ago, von Kenni said:

 

 

Talking about Dune. It's going to pass $400m when the run is over and a good chance that it'll get over that more than just couple of millions.

 

Then lets talk about Dom and HBO Max (that 1 guess...). Just as a rough example how Dune's Dom legs compare to UK where it was released theatrically (and I guess later affected with HBO Max a bit too) and other hard scifis (spot the anomaly...):

 

  UK US  
Dune 3.84 2.70 -1.14
       
Martian 4.66 4.21 -0.45
Interstellar 4.04 3.96 -0.08
Gravity 4.55 4.91 0.37
BR2049 3.15 2.81 -0.34
    Avg. -0.13

 

Dune is going to land close to $110m Dom now. Without HBO Max it's fair to say that Dune's OW would have been around $50m instead of $41m and instead of that 2.7 legs it would have had around 3.84-0.13=3.71 x $50m ~ $185m DOM. To recap:

 

Dune Dom BO

/w HBO Max ~ $110m

Theatrically ~ $185m

 

Just with that difference Dune's final WW would have been $475m... but when considering that 1/3 of HBO Max subscribers are OS and the effect of the early 4K leak and piracy, it's fair to say that without HBO Max Dune would have made way past $500m WW.

 

BW had similar issues plus much more restricted markets due to pandemic.

 

So Eternals is doing OK, but when studios compare successes they evaluate these things in the mix and as we see here, they really matter.

 

9 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Here's some more estimates and scenarios on HBO Max effect. SambaTV had 1.9m households watching Dune OW. It doesn't measure all so real number is a bit higher and it doesn't measure if more than one person watches it like often do. So let's use a conservative 1.3 multiplier. The ATP was $14.4 or more (I remember seeing that number with Dune at one point). Potential BO loss was 1.9x1.3x14.4 ~$36m. Of course most of them wouldn't have gone to watch Dune OW in any case. So here are different scenarios for that with the previous 3.71x legs multiplier (without HBO Max):

 

11% (~every 9th person) OW $45m -> $167m

17% (~every 6th person) OW $47m -> $175m

25% (~every 4th person) OW $50m -> $185m

 

So depending where Dune ends up Dom now $108-112m, you can estimate what was left on the table due to HBO Max.

 

9 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Oh, plus Dune's budget (reportedly...) is $165m. Getting over $500m would have meant 3+ multiplier but now it'll get "just" shy of 2.5. Pretty darn good for a DaD release and "new" IP. If we would factor pandemic effects WW, we would talk about $600-700m run as a pre-pandemic theather exclusive release. I would imagine Legendary and WB being pretty happy and excited for Part 2 and Messiah.

 

 

@TiagoRodrigues @poweranimals Check these quotes to understand the "struggle" and how Eternals compares to Dune. In short, Dune is going to now make $400-410m WW and Charlie's estimate for Eternals is $450m. Every studio head will already know by looking those numbers that without HBO Max, Dune would have made more. If you check the calculations above, it's almost a sure thing that Dune would have made way over $500m without it.

 

About China.

Even if Eternals would have been released in China and if it would have gotten $100m there it wouldn't have been better than Dune because studio gets about 24% out of that. Roughly said, $50m from outside China would have been the same and still Dune's non-HBO Max would have made more money in BO.

 

About HBO Max.

1/3 of its subscribers are outside the US and most of those markets opened at the same time with the US and were effected as well. Due to HBO Max a 4K version was leaked days before the US opening which affected and has ever since affected globally especially in countries without HBO Max.

 

Eternals is going to be profitable but it still very much underperformed.

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9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

you had 4k quality print on internet too early. That definitely has an impact greater than just US. 

 

Dune BO run >> Eternals. Eternals underperformed huge. Just look at clubs threads and how many people joined them. 

Its funny though. Like Eternals did sort of well everywhere while Dune was very lopsided in Europe. 

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29 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Its funny though. Like Eternals did sort of well everywhere while Dune was very lopsided in Europe. 

It kinda emphasizes partly the HBO Max / 4K print factor when Dune opened in Europe a month before that and most of the rest of the world in tandem with the US. But of course there are kazillion other factors like genre, releasing with an unknown brand/IP, that affect the whole deal. I mean how much we even know how marketing around releases differed in different countries.

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Disney’s Eternals ended its second week with an estimated $33.7M in first place in 4,090 theaters, after a $1.3M Thursday, -19% from Wednesday, putting the MCU title at $124.9M. The movie is expected to ease 50% in weekend 3 with around $13M for a No. 2 slot, that is unless King Richard greatly overperforms.

Paramount’s theatrical release of Clifford the Big Red Dogwhich is also available in homes on Paramount+, saw a $655K Thursday at 3,700 sites, -8% from Wednesday and a running total of $25.4M. Clifford looks to be at least 40% from its three-day of $16.6M with just under $10M. Clifford‘s last seven days at the B.O. came in at $19.8M.

Warner Bros./Legendary’s Dune which is in its final weekend on HBO Max before it’s exclusive to exhibition in its second month, continues to hold, notching third place with an estimated $7.5M fourth week in 3,282 movie theaters, an estimated $450K Thursday, and a running total just over $95M. The pic will clear the century mark at the domestic box office this week, Warner’s second to do so during the pandemic after Legendary’s Godzilla vs. Kong.

In fourth is UAR/MGM’s No Time to Diewhich is also in homes on PVOD, which earned $385K yesterday at 2,867, -2%, for a $6.1M sixth week, and a running total in the U.S. and Canada of $152M.

Fifth place belongs to Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage, booked at 2,538 with a Thursday estimated at $250K, off 7% from Wednesday, for a 7th week of $5M and running total of $203.7M.

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Thu actuals coming in...

 

    Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per
Thr
Total
Gross
D
- P Ghostbusters: Afterlife Sony Pictures $4,500,000         $4,500,000  
- (2) Clifford the Big Red Dog Paramount Pi… $648,996 -9% -80% 3,700 $175 $25,412,835 9
- (3) Dune Warner Bros. $462,506 -5% -62% 3,282 $141 $95,126,988 28
- (4) No Time to Die United Artists $384,272 -2% -61% 2,867 $134 $151,983,127 42
- (5) Venom: Let There be Carnage Sony Pictures $249,091 -8% -64% 2,538 $98 $203,700,066 49
- (-) The Addams Family 2 United Artists $34,086 -3% -84% 1,322 $26 $56,154,982 49
- (-) Mass Bleecker Street $428 +5% -53% 13 $33 $144,229 42
- (-) I’m Your Man Bleecker Street $202 -53% -56% 3 $67 $273,647 56
                     
    8   $6,279,581        

 

 

 

Paul Rudd Explosion GIF by Regal

 

Edited by von Kenni
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6 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Yeah Dune did better than expected or at least met the high end of expectations. Eternals underperformed but will do alright all things considered. 

Some people online dismissed Dune as basically the new Pacific Rim in terms of perceived actual popularity.

 

Yeah that makes no sense to me either.

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