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Purple Minion

GHOSTBUSTERS: AFTERLIFE | 68.0 M overseas ● 194.1 M worldwide

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3 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

From Deadline: Tack on an overseas launch in UK, Germany, Italy, Latin America (including Brazil and Mexico), Benelux, Sweden and Denmark, and the global start for the movie could reach $45M.

 

Thoughts?

I guess that number means DOM included, i.e. WW $45m?

 

No idea where total for OS this weekend is or could be (well, I could extrapolate from G2016 numbers based on which markets it now opens up...). UK is opening 50-65% higher than G2016 I guess, and expecting stronger legs there than G2016 so could even close to double that run but 50% higher should be done £15-20m+ run?

 

I expect Nordics delivering like the UK, Benelux well to and Europe generally. Japan is a tough spot and I would imagining doing worse than G2016 there.

 

Germany and Italy are heading ~30% higher opening than G2016 and legs should take the total run 50%+ compared to G2016.

 

Brazil is a tough gig I guess and Mexico is most interesting for me now. Any knowledge how it's doing there? How has the marketing worked? Has there been any?

 

Have they run the dubbed Ghostbusters animated series in Mexico during past decades so that 18-29 year old demo has fond childhood memories out of it?

 

Before Ghostbusters Afterlife one of my latino friends didn't know that it's originally from the US because he saw it dubbed when younger (and liked it).

 

Overall as in the other thread, based on these early results compared to G2016 which did $100m OS I expect GA to do $160-200m. Broader demo appeal, strong legs with great WOM like in the US, Stranger Things global phenomenon pull, and people recognizing the OG vibe in this better than in G2016.

 

This for now. On Mon-Tue when we have OS numbers this forecast could change a lot.

 

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13 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Super Quote!

 

$16m looks good and I bet it's going to be adjusted upwards when the actuals come in. Most of the markets are still coming and although UK is the single most important comparing to G2016 most of the biggest draws are still coming such as Japan (though expecting to underperform there compared to G2016), Australia, Russia, South Korea, France, and Spain.

 

European and some other countries by default will have longer OW multiplier for this than in the States.

 

So yes, still seeing the $160m-200m OS in the works but probably Tuesday wiser once we see the actuals and market-by-market info. Adding domestic, it's on an early trajectory for $300m+ WW.

 

For the upper limits at OS, I think Sony will carefully look the numbers and analyze how well they tap now into the Stranger Things demos globally, and other new audiences. The ingredients are there for growth with the adventure/mystery type of approach rather than just offering action comedy.

 

Also, I wouldn't discount the existing brand appeal even if it's in hibernation, just based on G2016 performances. I also don't see it hurting the overall brand much, maybe the new people that G2016 attracted aren't so hot for this, but the existing base is there for the taking.

 

And I think once again, the brand awareness can help to lure people especially for the OW, but how good the movie actually is defines the legs and if new demos warm up for it. Looks like that is in good shape for Ghostbusters Afterlife.

 

Sony will also add 20-30% to the BO it gathers to compare it with pre- & post-pandemic numbers. I really hope Europe isn't diving into a lockdown again.

 

Adding here too my thoughts on the OS numbers. Looking good so far. Mexico too.

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I've analyzed UK, Germany, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Denmark, Netherlands, Italy, and would like to get more data on Sweden. The comparison gross is just slightly tilted toward GBA compared to G2016 but if you take the "anomaly" Brazil out of the equation GBA is 20%+ ahead with openings. However G2016 had lousy legs almost across the board OS and expecting GBA do much better there. Now much more worried about Europe Covid wave than in the weekend. Also I made a mistake with German ATP during the weekend and thought it overperform G2016 30% like in Italy but it fell 17% short, and UK was "just" 40% higher and not 50% than I expected.

 

After the initial numbers and covid, now estimating GBA OS between $130-160m (without the rising Covid wave $140-180m). I think $300m WW is a coin toss now and tilts a bit sub $300m. $250m WW should be in the bank however you slice it. I'll keep updating this while I get meaningful data more. Latest after the weekend.

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6 hours ago, Valonqar said:

is this movie's international rollout really slow or there's no OS interest in it cause discrepancy between dom and OS is staggering?

Half of the markets are still coming and there's big draws still left when comparing the markets where G2016 delivered like Russia, Spain, Japan (Feb), Australia (Jan), and France. However, that said, as with the previous Ghostbusters movies most of the gross comes domestically.

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33 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Half of the markets are still coming and there's big draws still left when comparing the markets where G2016 delivered like Russia, Spain, Japan (Feb), Australia (Jan), and France. However, that said, as with the previous Ghostbusters movies most of the gross comes domestically.

 

I see. Thank you. :)

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