THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

[Legion Again]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Gucci mid day was looking ~3M. Encanto ~6.25M

 

granted this was like 7-8 hours ago.

40 and 19 then

[Ronin46]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Gucci mid day was looking ~3M. Encanto ~6.25M

 

granted this was like 7-8 hours ago.

 

I guess Gucci could recover a little being an adult drama but not sure Encanto would really pick up as the day went on.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Ronin46 said:

 

I guess Gucci could recover a little being an adult drama but not sure Encanto would really pick up as the day went on.

Both figs would be extrapolated to end of day based on genre, so could go up or down. Personally I’d say that 6.9 Encanto true wed +4.20 Gucci OD is fate 😏

[Ronin46]

11 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

Both figs would be extrapolated to end of day based on genre, so could go up or down. Personally I’d say that 6.9 Encanto true wed +4.20 Gucci OD is fate 😏

 

Well hopefully we get an update soon.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Well hopefully we get an update soon.

In about 8 hours, soon in a sense  

[Krissykins]

$3m and $6.25m true Wednesdays would be decent and still secure $20m and $40m 5 days. Both on the high end of tracking. 
 

From some reactions already, you’d think this was the Eternals weekend thread again, but it doesn’t look like any of these are missing their tracking. 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Krissykins

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

$3m and $6.25m true Wednesdays would be decent and still secure $20m and $40m 5 days. Both on the high end of tracking. 
 

From some reactions already, you’d think this was the Eternals weekend thread again. 

 

Some people are really really really ready for the pandemic to be over and having an adult drama and a family film actually break out (as opposed to reaching the upper end of tracking) would be a sign that things are getting more back to normal-ish.

 

Yes, 4 quad movies have done... fine.  But even they are capped to a degree.  And to forestall the comments, even if 80% or 85% of the market is over the pandemic, that still leaves 20% to 15% which to one degree or another, isn't.

 

Might not matter for a mega-film like NWH where there might be enough excess demand to wash over supply of seats and still have a breakout.  On the other hand, might cut into legs more than might be expected if there still is an artificial-ish cap to overall demand out there.

 

In the end, some folks just want a sign that adult dramas/family films are in recovery as well.  Coming in at the higher end of tracking is a good first step.  But not enough of one, I suspect for some folks here.

 

FWIW, I do think Ghostbusters: Afterlife's performance is a hopeful sign.  Though I do seem to recall some less-than-wonderful demographic breakdowns in the OW reports, so still lots of recovery to be done.

[Legion Again]

23 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

$3m and $6.25m true Wednesdays would be decent and still secure $20m and $40m 5 days. Both on the high end of tracking. 
 

From some reactions already, you’d think this was the Eternals weekend thread again, but it doesn’t look like any of these are missing their tracking. 

People don’t care about official tracking because official tracking isn’t worth caring about. I feel like I have to say this in every single weekend thread when things look like they might go low. 

[Legion Again]

FWIW though BOP went pretty high this weekend, which is an unusual move from them (though they were also high on bond, in recent memory).

[Krissykins]

58 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

I don’t care about official tracking because official tracking isn’t worth caring about. I feel like I have to say this in every single weekend thread when things look like they might go low. 

Fixed. 
 

You might think it’s not worth caring about, but it’s the only measurement we’ve got to see if a film has met industry expectations or not. 
 

Personal predictions aside. The industry tracking is notable at least in one way, because obviously it’s how the trades and media will react to the final numbers. After all, they’re the ones who influence the reception of a films performance. 

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Fixed

That’s not fixing it, it’s breaking it! Before your edit it served as an accurate explanation to your implied question — “why do people seem sad with these (potential) numbers.” The version you changed it to no longer functions to explain that which you seemed to want explained!  
 

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

You might think it’s not worth caring about, but it’s the only measurement we’ve got to see if a film has met industry expectations or not. 

“It’s the only measure of X” is kind of meaningless when it’s still a weak measure of X and there isn’t much reason to care about X in the first place.  

 

 

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Personal predictions aside. The industry tracking is notable at least in one way, because obviously it’s how the trades and media will react to the final numbers. After all, they’re the ones who influence the reception of a films performance. 

Yeah, this part is true. If you want to predict the tone of hwr articles or whatever, comparing to the “industry tracking” is very useful. But most people on here don’t care that much if a performance they think was underwhelming gets written up as “beats (lowballed) expectations” in some magazine or not.

Edited November 25, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[Krissykins]

49 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

That’s not fixing it, it’s breaking it! Before your edit it served as an accurate explanation to your implied question — “why do people seem sad with these (potential) numbers.” The version you changed it to no longer functions to explain that which you seemed to want explained!  
 

I didn’t need or want anything explained.

 

I made an observation that people were reacting as if the new batch of films had underperformed, when it doesn’t look like they’re going to (and we don’t even have opening day numbers yet). 

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I didn’t need or want anything explained.

 

I made an observation that people were reacting as if the new batch of films had underperformed, when it doesn’t look like they’re going to (and we don’t even have opening day numbers yet). 

And I pointed out that whether a film underperforms and people react as such has nothing to do with official tracking.  If Jat’s early numbers stick, it will be an underperformance in the eyes of many, even if you don’t agree.

[TwoMisfits]

I think I've harped on this, but the person who needs to be convinced to go back to the movies in full force is the 25+ female.  Every big movie, women have been about 40% or less of the audience (now, some do skew male, but not ALL of them)...and the thing is, women that age tend to bring the kids and the groups.  Very few 25+ women are attending movies alone (my mom used to always bring her other 55+ female friend, if she wasn't dragging 1 or more of her kids)...

 

You need to convince THAT person that movies are safe, good, and worth it.  Then, you'll get the families (women tend to be the "buyers" in households), then you'll get the 55+ (see my mom), and the more normal blockbuster and regular film demo breakdowns.

 

Now, I don't how you get that person or if they are willing to go back.  But if there's one thing missing in movie returns, it's that person and they are the key to a healthy market.

 

PS - I say this as a 25+ woman...of course, as that woman, I still don't have a sibling or friend who is going to movies right now.  To be fair, many didn't before Covid (since they had taken to streaming waits), now all don't go after...

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

I didn’t need or want anything explained.

 

I made an observation that people were reacting as if the new batch of films had underperformed, when it doesn’t look like they’re going to (and we don’t even have opening day numbers yet). 

 

I mean, if I were tracking, I'd put $4-7M on every regular adult-skewing drama coming through 2021...just b/c those movies would meet that tracking doesn't mean that the performance doesn't still suck and lose money...

 

I think that's where folks are saying they are ignoring tracking...for months, 2 months out, not as a tracker, I've been pitching that number for adult-skewing dramas and it's always sadly right...I'm still waiting for 1 to blow up and break tracking...

[Krissykins]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I mean, if I were tracking, I'd put $4-7M on every regular adult-skewing drama coming through 2021...just b/c those movies would meet that tracking doesn't mean that the performance doesn't still suck and lose money...

 

I think that's where folks are saying they are ignoring tracking...for months, 2 months out, not as a tracker, I've been pitching that number for adult-skewing dramas and it's always sadly right...I'm still waiting for 1 to blow up and break tracking...

King Richard was just tracking at $10m last weekend. 
 

But hey, if people want to ignore industry tracking, that’s absolutely fine and their choice! 
 

And we don’t need snarky or snide comments in response to people who do like to use it. 

[Yandereprime101189]

Well at least Gucci won't be Last Duel. Gaga her power, I guess.

[Eric Atreides]

 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Eric Madrigal said:

 

2.9M true WED? LOL

[Felipe]

5 minutes ago, Eric Madrigal said:

 

5-day, following:

Knives Out: 24,2M

Allied: 25M

Creed: 26,9M

Queen & Slim 28M

 

I think I made this right, but it should probably be lower than KO multiplier.