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Eric Riley

THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

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36 minutes ago, Eric Madrigal said:

 

Looked at the comps on The Numbers, all 3 of Ragnarok, Doctor Strange and The Dark World did 12.4-12.6 of their pre-thanksgiving number from this point forward. That's about 23M more for Eternals left, will be slightly lower as the starting point is lower than those 3 movies. Looking like a 160-165M final.

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5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The only caveat I'll give to these numbers is that like with Fourth of July, there may be a pent in, two year demand to do in-person family stuff over Wednesday and Thursday. I know I got together with a ton of people yesterday when I could have usually seen Gucci. So there's a shot weekend really does do better.

True. People don't seem to want to be in theaters, would rather be anywhere else right now. Might also be the lack of a genuinely big movie to drive business as well.

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1 (1) The Croods: A New Age Universal $2,669,640 +42%   2,211 $1,207 $4,550,255 2
2 (2) Freaky Universal $166,700 +6% +8% 2,057 $81 $6,242,985 14
3 (3) The War with Grandpa 101 Studios $155,094 +66% +211% 1,688 $92 $16,613,811 49
4 (4) Let Him Go Focus Features $113,405 +68% +38% 987 $115 $8,253,425 21
5 (6) Honest Thief Open Road $73,852 +99% +72% 975 $76 $13,191,394 42

This was last year thanksgiving day numbers where most of the film grew from Wed, as opposed normal historical trend where films generally dip on actual thanksgiving day like how we know. So maybe there is silver lining behind these awful bump since Covid-19 could also distort the holiday cinemagoing pattern.     

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22 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
1 (1) The Croods: A New Age Universal $2,669,640 +42%   2,211 $1,207 $4,550,255 2
2 (2) Freaky Universal $166,700 +6% +8% 2,057 $81 $6,242,985 14
3 (3) The War with Grandpa 101 Studios $155,094 +66% +211% 1,688 $92 $16,613,811 49
4 (4) Let Him Go Focus Features $113,405 +68% +38% 987 $115 $8,253,425 21
5 (6) Honest Thief Open Road $73,852 +99% +72% 975 $76 $13,191,394 42

This was last year thanksgiving day numbers where most of the film grew from Wed, as opposed normal historical trend where films generally dip on actual thanksgiving day like how we know. So maybe there is silver lining behind these awful bump since Covid-19 could also distort the holiday cinemagoing pattern.     

Interesting point.  
or it could have been that as many families actually didn’t get together, so more went to the movies. Hard to be sure. 
 

I think we’ll see somewhere inbetween the usual drop and flat.  But who knows! 

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41 minutes ago, Mango said:

Ghostbusters might be number 1 again this weekend

 

Kinda thinking the same but I think it's just a slim chance. I think the deciding factor here is the latino demo that was strong with GBA. However, I would imagine Encanto having a bigger pull for that demo now which would at least partly offset GBA. If for some reason (spanish GB animated series), GBA would have the bigger pull, then Encanto would be in trouble.

 

Finnwolfard GIF by Ghostbusters

Edited by von Kenni
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1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Looked at the comps on The Numbers, all 3 of Ragnarok, Doctor Strange and The Dark World did 12.4-12.6 of their pre-thanksgiving number from this point forward. That's about 23M more for Eternals left, will be slightly lower as the starting point is lower than those 3 movies. Looking like a 160-165M final.

Reviews really hurt domestic BO for Eternals.

Internationally it probably already surpassed Shang Chi at this point since it was 6M behind by Sunday.

 

This disparity is Interesting for sure. 

 

A few more days to surpass Dune WW and one more week until Black Widow maybe.

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https://deadline.com/2021/11/encanto-house-of-gucci-resident-evil-thanksgiving-box-office-1234880192/

 

Quote

1.) Encanto (Dis) 3,980 theaters, Wed $7.5M, 3-day $26.1M, 5-day $38.6M/Wk 1

 

2.) Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony) 4,315 theaters, Wed $5.4M (+16% from Tuesday)/3-day: $23.6M (-46%)/5-day $34.2M/Total: $86.7M/Wk 2

 

3.) House of Gucci (UAR/MGM) 3,441 theaters, Wed. $4.2M/3-day $14.3M, 5-day $21.7M/Wk 1

 

4.)Resident Evil: Raccoon City (Sony) 2,803 theaters, Wed. $2.5M/3-day $7.7M, 5-day $11.9M/Wk 1

 

5.) Eternals (Dis) 3,165 (-890) theaters, Wed $1.9M (+12%)/3-day $7.4M (-33%), 5-day $10.8M/Total $150M/Wk 4

 

6.) Clifford the Big Red Dog (Par) 3,331 (-297) theaters, Wed $1.3M (0%)/3-day $5.8M (-28%)/5-day $8.3M/Total $44.2M/Wk 3

 

7.)King Richard (WB) 3,302 theaters, Wed $639K (-7%)/ 3-day $3M (-44%)/5-day $4.3M/Total $10.95M/Wk 2

 

8.) Dune (WB/Leg) 1,312 (-1,155) theaters, Fri $493K (+3%)/3-day $2.2M (-29%), 5-day $3.1M/ Total $102.3M/Wk 6

 

9.) No Time to Die (UAR) 1,342 (-1,065) theaters, Wed $366K (-13%)/3-day $1.66M (-40%), 5-day: $2.38M/Total $158M/Wk 8

 

10.) Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony) 1,537 (-693) theaters, Wed $335K (+2%), 3-day $1.52M (-48%), 5-day: $2.2M/ Total $209.5M/Wk 9

 

11.) Belfast (Foc) 1,128 (+544) theaters, Wed $170K (+36%), 3-day $820K (-13%), 5-day: $1.1M/Total $4.8M/Wk 3

 

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Was pre sales even pointing to a breakout for Gucci? It really looking like a 15 to 18 million 5 day off of a 2.9 true Wednesday. Are pre sales looking better for the weekend?

Edited by Nikostar
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16 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think that’s fine for all 3 lol. 
 

House of Gucci a 5 day in the $20m range, Resident Evil $11m maybe (it cost $25m). 

I agree, these numbers seem pretty good to me when you look at how similar movies have done since the pandemic. Wasn't Respect the biggest opening for a drama this year with just $8 million?

 

Resident Evil is also doing better than I would expect in this environment for what it is.

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Agree they’re all fine. There is the potential that the multipliers will be totally out of sync with what we’re used to pre-pandemic over the 5 days. 
 

Thursday could be softer drops than expected, with Friday bigger than anticipated. 
 

Fingers crossed. There’s something for everybody this weekend, so I’m hopeful. 

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38 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

I agree, these numbers seem pretty good to me when you look at how similar movies have done since the pandemic. Wasn't Respect the biggest opening for a drama this year with just $8 million?

 

Resident Evil is also doing better than I would expect in this environment for what it is.

Exactly! 

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1 hour ago, Eric Madrigal said:

I'm amused Deadline had to explain to readers that Encanto is not just Coco with a girl, but more than that...the fact a trade has to write those words says Disney really let down the marketing for this, and the movie probably won't recover as much as Deadline expects b/c with the D+ Christmas release and Ghostbusters being higher or just as high, GB will get the "holdover Xmas save" at many more places than Encanto...

 

From Deadline...

"Here’s what I will say: Encanto is a film to be discovered, evident in its A CinemaScore. Once inside, audiences will realize it’s up there in the Moana and Frozen pantheon, boosted by a rousing soundtrack from Lin-Manuel Miranda. Some average joe moviegoers may think in the marketing of Disney’s Encanto that it’s Coco all over again, and it definitely is not. Encanto is a female driven story about a girl who is trying to ward bad luck off from her gifted family in Colombia, while Coco is Mexico-set, about a boy’s connections with his family’s souls in the Land of the Dead, as he confronts their ban of music in his quest to find his great-great-grandfather, a legendary singer." 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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These numbers are bad y’all. Gucci is the least bad because it’s an adult drama that will at least almost match Tom and Jerry or whatever.   
 

And yes, looking at 2020 there is some chance that 5day/wed will go high again — if things change, they will have changed, and not be the same.

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