THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, TiagoRodrigues said:

 

I read that a few days ago somewhere. Multiple articles written about it and I also thought it was weird. Glad its a hit! 

The article are bizarre, if they are those you have in mind:

 

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/no-time-to-die-highest-grossing-movie-losing-money-blockbusters-1235111919/

 

they are not saying it is not a hit, they are saying a really strange:

As a result, the film now stands to lose $100 million in its theatrical run, according to sources close to production.

 

And ? If they implying anything special from that, that is very out of touch, the last Bond was around -100 million after theatrical has well.

 

[wildphantom]

2 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

We'll see what Disney thinks about Encanto's performance by seeing if they decide to change Turning Red's release plan.

 

I think we're still in recovery mode in the sense audiences are alot more picker to choose which movies to come to the cinemas and especially families. Disney for the past 18 months has been fine with their animated films debuting on Disney+ and with Encanto only having 30 days before Disney+ I can see some families feeling fine to wait. 

 

Now if it was Frozen 3 then sure different story but not all BO successes should be blockbuster sequels.

They won’t change Turning Red’s plan because even if it makes less money than it might have pre-pandemic, it will still make them money.  Rather than making them none on their streaming service as there’s no way people are paying $20 for it.  The days of Disney+ PA look to be dead and buried, such has been the deafening silence from its performance for most films that took it up. 
 

Turning Red, like Encanto, is them getting audiences used to having to go out and see their new films again.  One need only look at the abysmal last quarter of growth for Disney+ to see that their streaming service is not the be all and end all.  

[Jamiem]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

They won’t change Turning Red’s plan because even if it makes less money than it might have pre-pandemic, it will still make them money.  Rather than making them none on their streaming service as there’s no way people are paying $20 for it.  The days of Disney+ PA look to be dead and buried, such has been the deafening silence from its performance for most films that took it up. 
 

Turning Red, like Encanto, is them getting audiences used to having to go out and see their new films again.  One need only look at the abysmal last quarter of growth for Disney+ to see that their streaming service is not the be all and end all.  

Turning Red wouldn’t go PA it would go straight to the service like Soul and Luca if they moved it to Disney+, I think that is unlikely and with the date it has that film will probably also get a 30 day window like Encanto and be out on Disney+ for Easter.

 

As for the weak Disney+ quarter, they along with all the other major streaming services will have a much better quarter this quarter (ending December) due to seasonal factors and much better programming so it is more a speed bump than a brick wall in terms of growth for the industry.

[ThomasNicole]

If the new variant spread lile Delta or worse Turning Red is definitely going to D+. Pixar helped the platoform a lot, both Soul and Luca was gigantic there, Luca actually is still on the Nielsen top 10.

 

But let's hope for the best, Pixar doesn't deserve another original heading to streaming.

[EmpireCity]

Guys, how does it make any sense that Disney would just move it to Disney+ and avoid any and all theatrical rental if theaters are opening and running?

 

The reason others went to D+ is they were trying to grow subscribers early on and theaters were closed or partially open.  

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Guys, how does it make any sense that Disney would just move it to Disney+ and avoid any and all theatrical rental if theaters are opening and running?

 

The reason others went to D+ is they were trying to grow subscribers early on and theaters were closed or partially open.  

I mean, I don't personallythink it would be a good idea, but they did make Luca D+ when they weren't early on and theaters were pretty reopened (in some ways the Luca release date being pre delta was a better date than most of 2H 2021)

[Barnack]

42 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

but they did make Luca D+ when they weren't early on and theaters were pretty reopened

It was a different time:

 

Gaining D+ customer is about impossible by now, would need some shift for pixar to go PVOD and a turn around.

[bobdysm]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

It was a different time:

 

Gaining D+ customer is about impossible by now, would need some shift for pixar to go PVOD and a turn around.

They added more non Hotstar subs (i.e subs that actually drive revenue) last quarter than they did in fiscal Q3 or Q2. I wouldn't really say growth has slowed in core D+ markets, at least compared not compared to when Luca came out or really the rest of the 2021

 

Disney + Subs	Core	Hotstar	Total	% Hotstar	Δ Subs Core	Δ Subs Hotstar	Net Adds total
2021 Q1	66.4	28.5	94.9	30%	11.9	9.3	21.2
2021 Q2	68.5	35.1	103.6	34%	2.0	6.7	8.7
2021 Q3	70.5	45.5	116.0	39%	2.0	10.4	12.4
2021 Q4	74.5	43.7	118.2	37%	4.0	-1.8	2.2

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by bobdysm

[Jamiem]

31 minutes ago, Barnack said:

It was a different time:

 

Gaining D+ customer is about impossible by now, would need some shift for pixar to go PVOD and a turn around.

Somewhat misleading graph without context. Luca launched in Q3 21 not that different from where they are now, most of their explosive growth came from becoming available in new countries. 

 

Q1-20 -  US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand 

Q2-20 - UK, Ireland, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, Austria 

Q3-20 - India (Hotstar), France, Japan (limited)

Q4-20 - Indonesia, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, Sweden 

Q1-21 - Latin America 

Q2-21 - Singapore

Q3-21 - Malaysia, Thailand 

Q4-21 - No new countries 

 

and coming up we have 

 

Q1-22 - Japan (expansion), South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong

 

The main reason Q4 was so weak was because they didn't launch in any new countries and their local content strategy has only just started, growth will come back in the coming year (it won't be as explosive as the first 18 months but that was fuelled by launching in all the major markets, COVID, early deals, a cheap price and insanely good marketing)

 

Could Turning Red be a driver of new subs? Sure, but as I said it is probably better to have a 30 day window and launch it on Disney+ around Easter as that will likely have more of an impact with many kids around the world home from school and families spending time together. 

 

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Could Turning Red be a driver of new subs? Sure,

Do they need to not release it theatrical domestic to bring sub in japan, sk ?

[filmlover]

The Turning Red trailer got a big reaction from my audience at Encanto tonight (West Side Story and Lightyear are the other Disney trailer attachments before the movie). They really have no reason to give it the Soul/Luca treatment when theaters are fully up and running, so the Encanto method of making it available on D+ a month after theaters is probably gonna be the norm for a while.

[John Marston]

Disney Plus growth will continue to sink. Marvel and Star Wars fans have already signed up and the rest of their content consists of stuff like a Home Alone reboot nobody wanted and Cheaper By the Dozen and Ice Age reboots

Edited November 26, 2021 by John Marston

[Jamiem]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Do they need to not release it theatrical domestic to bring sub in japan, sk ?

 

6 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

but as I said it is probably better to have a 30 day window and launch it on Disney+ around Easter as that will likely have more of an impact with many kids around the world home from school and families spending time together. 

To answer your question it would be less about gaining subs in specific markets and more about having something that is exclusive to Disney+ that they can't see anywhere else (at least not straight away) only need to see how Shang-Chi did on PVOD to see there are some that still get their digital films on other platforms other than Disney+ having no other option would likely be a draw for some (particularly when kids are involved) 

 

I still think even with a 30 day window you would get families who are too far way from a theatre, can't afford going or are too afraid to go signing up or keeping their subscription in order to watch Turning Red for Easter though. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

The reason others went to D+ is they were trying to grow subscribers early on and theaters were closed or partially open.  

Tell that to Luca. Good environment covid wise, they already have pretty much the same amount of subscribers they have now and still happened.

 

Of course if everything goes well they have no reason to change the theatrical plan for Turning Red, but if the new variant become a problem in the next months they can change that, Disney already made it clear again last month they're all about "flexibility" now.

 

 

Edited November 26, 2021 by ThomasNicole

[Jamiem]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Disney Plus growth will continue to sink. Marvel and Star Wars fans have already signed up and the rest of their content consists of stuff like a Home Alone reboot nobody wanted and Cheaper By the Dozen and Ice Age reboots

This is what many analysts get wrong with streaming so often, they view things through the US lens. Outside of the US they are developing a bunch of local/regional originals and in Asia-Pacific, Canada and Europe they offer stuff from 20th Century and Disney adult brands like Family Guy, Grey's Anatomy, Alien, Only Murders in the Building etc. Lots of growth potential outside the US plus I'm pretty sure people were saying the same thing about Netflix growth slowing at points, the growth of these services is not linear. 

 

Anyway going to stop derailing the thread talking about Disney+, hopefully Gucci and Encanto both had good jumps day on day and have solid 3 day and 5 day openings. 

[Yandereprime101189]

8 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Nothing is going to be full on theatrical in 2022 if we do not take very serious and emergency action on this. Have read quite a bit about it over last two days but Topol always sums up best.

 

 

 

And this won't be the only variant either. There's gonna be more and more new variants popping up in the coming months, Covid's here to stay for the long haul during the 2020s.

 

Whether it'll affect releases is another story. Adjustments yes. . . but we'll see

Edited November 26, 2021 by Yandereprime101189

[Darth Lehnsherr]

To be clear I think Turning Red will remain theatrical my thinking of whether it would go to Disney+ was more of a response to calling Encanto disappointment after one day of sales. I would hope Disney is realistic with themselves that family going films still need more time to get back to prepandemic levels. Encanto's performance as long as it's around the 40M-50M 5 Day Mark is fine enough. 

[lab276]

4 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

To be clear I think Turning Red will remain theatrical my thinking of whether it would go to Disney+ was more of a response to calling Encanto disappointment after one day of sales. I would hope Disney is realistic with themselves that family going films still need more time to get back to prepandemic levels. Encanto's performance as long as it's around the 40M-50M 5 Day Mark is fine enough. 

 

Depends on the movie though, Disney hasn't had much luck with theatrical kids releases but The Croods 2 and Peter Rabbit 2 did very well. I reckon Soul would've done better than Raya.

[KP1025]

3 minutes ago, lab276 said:

 

Depends on the movie though, Disney hasn't had much luck with theatrical kids releases but The Croods 2 and Peter Rabbit 2 did very well. I reckon Soul would've done better than Raya.

 

Did they? Both fell into the $40-60 million range that almost all animated/kid-skewing films seemed to be stuck in since the pandemic began. 

[Legion Again]

Croods run was almost entirely pre-vaccine and largely in the midst of our worst wave with many theaters closed outright+widespread low seating caps. Definitely more impressive than what Encanto seem to be heading for here.