THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

[Jamiem]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Red Letter Media’s review is trending so Ghostbusters might drop over 50%

This is as nonsensical as me writing “I just did a wet fart that sounded like Slimer movie will earn $500m “

 

A small internet group isn’t going to impact the Ghostbusters drop and certainly not to that level on a holiday weekend. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Eternal Legion said:

RLM’s opinions have very small impact on the real world. 

 

I'm a SW fan, thus I stopped giving a shit about what RLM had to say about anything approximately five minutes after all of their success over prequel bashing went to their heads and they became (even more) utterly insufferable. 👍

[von Kenni]

4 hours ago, Eric Madrigal said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/thanksgiving-box-office-forecast-will-encanto-ghostbusters-afterlife-house-of-gucci-resident-evil-stimulate-holiday-moviegoing/

 

 

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	5-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 28	Location Count	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Encanto	Walt Disney Pictures	$39,300,000	$56,400,000	$56,400,000	3,980	NEW
Ghostbusters: Afterlife	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$26,200,000	$37,900,000	$91,100,000	~4,315	-40%
House of Gucci	United Artists Releasing	$17,400,000	$26,900,000	$26,900,000	3,441	NEW
Eternals	Disney / Marvel Studios	$8,000,000	$11,400,000	$150,300,000	3,165	-28%
Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$7,400,000	$11,500,000	$11,500,000	~2,800	NEW
Clifford the Big Red Dog	Paramount Pictures	$6,500,000	$9,000,000	$45,100,000	3,292	-20%
King Richard	Warner Bros. Pictures	$4,100,000	$6,100,000	$12,800,000	3,302	-24%
Dune	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,900,000	$2,700,000	$101,800,000	~1,200	-40%
Venom: Let There Be Carnage	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$1,800,000	$2,600,000	$210,100,000	~1,500	-38%
No Time to Die	MGM / EON / United Artists Releasing	$1,700,000	$2,400,000	$157,900,000	1,342	-39%
Belfast	Focus Features	$1,600,000	$2,100,000	$5,800,000	1,128	+70%

 

 

If those location count numbers hold, Dune is losing half of its locations. That's not so promising for the final run but it's still looking close to $110m.

Edited November 24, 2021 by von Kenni

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

If those location count numbers hold, Dune is losing half of its locations. That's not so promising for the final run but it's still looking close to $110m.

most of the locations Dune would be pulled out would be grossing low numbers. Overall drop will anyway be better than theater drop plus there is holiday bump. 110m could still happen if it has a run till new year. 

[Legion Again]

I feel like my understanding of TC vs PTA vs gross dynamics is one of the areas that I’ve grown the most since, say, 2019. There is a lot of intricate stuff going on when you drill down into it which is hidden from public view. For example, with dune this weekend:

1) the locations that get dropped completely (1+ showings -> 0) are, on average, smaller theaters and ones where dune was performing worse for them, so they have lower pta than the National avg. Dropping those theaters, in isolation, will drive the PTA up because the denominator is more impacted than the numerator. Furthermore, some of their business actually flows to the holdovers locations, driving up their occupancy somewhat and further increasing atp among that subset of locs. 
2) However, a large chunk* of screen loss on any given weekend is driven by the locations that keep playing it, not the ones that drop it! If half of your theaters go from avg 1.2 screens to 0, and the other half go from 2.5 to 1, then 55% of your screen loss came from the kept theaters. So that drives the PTA at holdover locs down… but those denominator and substitution effects drive PSA on the holdover screens up.   
3) Generally speaking, if you held screens constant, PSA trends down over time because you’re exhausting the interested consumer base.

4) Calendar stuff like school and work holidays also plays a role.
 

*Actually, @katnisscinnaplex may be able to comment qualitatively on how much screen loss is coming from dropped locs vs holdovers locs. 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Eternal Legion

[von Kenni]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

most of the locations Dune would be pulled out would be grossing low numbers. Overall drop will anyway be better than theater drop plus there is holiday bump. 110m could still happen if it has a run till new year. 

 

50 minutes ago, Eternal Legion said:

I feel like my understanding of TC vs PTA vs gross dynamics is one of the areas that I’ve grown the most since, say, 2019. There is a lot of intricate stuff going on when you drill down into it which is hidden from public view. For example, with dune this weekend:

1) the locations that get dropped completely (1+ showings -> 0) are, on average, smaller theaters and ones where dune was performing worse for them, so they have lower pta than the National avg. Dropping those theaters, in isolation, will drive the PTA up because the denominator is more impacted than the numerator. Furthermore, some of their business actually flows to the holdovers locations, driving up their occupancy somewhat and further increasing atp among that subset of locs. 
2) However, a large chunk* of screen loss on any given weekend is driven by the locations that keep playing it, not the ones that drop it! If half of your theaters go from avg 1.2 screens to 0, and the other half go from 2.5 to 1, then 55% of your screen loss came from the kept theaters. So that drives the PTA at holdover locs down… but those denominator and substitution effects drive PSA on the holdover screens up.   
3) Generally speaking, if you held screens constant, PSA trends down over time because you’re exhausting the interested consumer base.

4) Calendar stuff like school and work holidays also plays a role.
 

*Actually, @katnisscinnaplex may be able to comment qualitatively on how much screen loss is coming from dropped locs vs holdovers locs. 

Thanks for sharing insights on this. A very interesting game. This is a very academic and probably a redundant question to ask in isolation as there are many factors, but I wonder how much eventually e.g. dropping half of the screens might effect the potential gross in near-term. It's sure isn't nothing close to -50%, but surely it is -5-10% or more?

 

I mean demand doesn't just flow naturally to the places where the supply is and more supply, it drives demand too. And as you said, a large chunk of lost screens are locations that still keep playing it, which softens the blow even if it still lessens the supply (available times, more prominently on display).

[Legion Again]

Very small samples right now, but hey:

Encanto 93% verified (bit low if it sticks)

Gucci 91% (strong if it sticks)

 

[ando]

I feel like all the long time holdovers (Dune, NTTD, Venom 2) are going to do better than that forecast above shows, given their Monday numbers. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 hours ago, Eternal Legion said:

*Actually, @katnisscinnaplex may be able to comment qualitatively on how much screen loss is coming from dropped locs vs holdovers locs. 

This sounds like a fun challenge, but would require me to save off show counts per theater which, with the way my spreadsheet already runs, sounds like it may finish it off.  There's always the option of converting to a database and storing everything, but that seems like a huge undertaking without much payoff.   I tend to agree with your statement though that locations dropping a movie are ones where either: the movie hasn't been selling well, areas that are oversaturated, or small theaters that only have a few screens to begin with.  

[TalismanRing]

 

Numbers ...........................................

[charlie Jatinder]

Was thinking 1.5-1.7M previews. Let's see.

[Nikostar]

Have a feeling this will be an underwhelming weekend for all 3 openers.

[Eric Duncan]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Was thinking 1.5-1.7M previews. Let's see.

Yeesh. If that's the case, then I guess kids aren't ever coming back to the movies.

[CJohn]

Just now, Eric Madrigal said:

Yeesh. If that's the case, then I guess kids aren't ever coming back to the movies.

As long as there is a raging pandemic people won't be coming back to theaters in droves. That is fact.

[AJG]

Has he won?

 

[Eric Duncan]

 

[DAJK]

Dang, was hoping for a bit better than 1.5M

Edited November 24, 2021 by DAJK

[keysersoze123]

its ATP will be low. I was too high :-(. but key days re thu/fri/sat. So there is still hope. 

[Flopped]

oof, Gucci must be low too. theatrical is dead. 

[CJohn]

13 minutes ago, AJG said:

Has he won?

 

COVID won.