THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

[TalismanRing]

Darn.  Was OK with $1.7m since it would still probably mean a $50m+ 5 day.  

 

With Moana and Coco comps 5 day is looking more like $47m. 

 

Then again, patterns have changed.

[ThomasNicole]

Decent enough, tracking is 35-40M, should match that comfortably.

 

Still look like family movies still are having problems to get back on track, having the movie for free on D+ by Christmas certainly won't help.

 

If Disney decides to put their next animated movie on D+, which will be again a Pixar movie, i'll riot.

[wildphantom]

12 hours ago, excel1 said:

If Gucci is the first adult film to really succeed...does that confirm Lady Gaga is a legitimate box office draw (even if its only in the right role)? It wouldn't be due to anyone else...

no. It just confirms enough kids were scared into buying a ticket by Ridley (although they probably only stayed for the Spider-Man trailer) 

[Eric Atreides]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Darn.  Was OK with $1.7m since it would still probably mean a $50m+ 5 day.  

 

With Moana and Coco comps 5 day is looking more like $47m. 

 

Then again, patterns have changed.

That's my big issue right there, I can only see a 5-day IM of like 25-27x to account for overall frontloadedness in the market, and that would lead to ~40M for the 5-day. It would still beat out Space Jam 2 as the biggest kids title for the year, but it still shows a lot of hesitancy/possible disinterest amongst families over moviegoing IMO

[titanic2187]

Preview numbers have been consistently weaker than trackers' number. So 1.5m is kind of an expected figure. Real challenge is Wed's number if it can outperform or at least in line with tracking or Enchanto could be just too latino to attract nationwide attention.

[ThomasNicole]

MGM/United Artists Releasing’s House of Gucci also fared very well, making $1.3M off 7PM showtimes.

 

[WrathOfHan]

Licorice Pizza is the real event of the weekend.

 

[Nikostar]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

MGM/United Artists Releasing’s House of Gucci also fared very well, making $1.3M off 7PM showtimes.

 

Meh 

[Cmasterclay]

Awful for both Encanto and Gucci. Cases are going up and COVID will never end. We are going to see theater and businesses shut down again. Republicans will sweep the 2022 midterms and then steal the election in 2024. Society has fundamentally shifted on its axis and we will never get back to normal. Between the neverending pandemic, the political coup and upheaval, and the changing norms caused by technology and post-pandemic life, we are heading towards a period of societal unrest and breakdown.

 

Or maybe they will have good weekend IMs, I don't know.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Decent enough, tracking is 35-40M, should match that comfortably.

 

Still look like family movies still are having problems to get back on track, having the movie for free on D+ by Christmas certainly won't help.

 

If Disney decides to put their next animated movie on D+, which will be again a Pixar movie, i'll riot.

Turning Red will be released in theaters (they've already confirmed such) but the window will likely be shortened like it is for this. Expect it to be on D+ by Easter.

 

Coco made $2.3M in previews on its way to $72.9M over the 5-day four years ago so this seems acceptable. Always thought $40M+ for the 5-day (which is still looking highly likely) would be a win since this is the first animated movie to not be hit by the pandemic since Spies in Disguise nearly two years ago.

[excel1]

Previews on a Tuesday night going into the weekend were never going to be huge, relax. 

[WrathOfHan]

Gucci is only 360k behind Knives Out, so I'd say that's a strong start for it. Encanto.... eh, it's around what I expected it to do.

[Eric Atreides]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Awful for both Encanto and Gucci. Cases are going up and COVID will never end. We are going to see theater and businesses shut down again. Republicans will sweep the 2022 midterms and then steal the election in 2024. Society has fundamentally shifted on its axis and we will never get back to normal. Between the neverending pandemic, the political coup and upheaval, and the changing norms caused by technology and post-pandemic life, we are heading towards a period of societal unrest and breakdown.

 

Or maybe they will have good weekend IMs, I don't know.

I know you're trying to do a joke but Gucci's preview seems fine? It would take the 5-day to like high 20s or something, which would be fairly decent IMO

[Felipe]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

MGM/United Artists Releasing’s House of Gucci also fared very well, making $1.3M off 7PM showtimes.

 

Keyser nailed it in the tracking thread. He said the release for gucci previews was small, so it's good right?

[PDC1987]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

MGM/United Artists Releasing’s House of Gucci also fared very well, making $1.3M off 7PM showtimes.

 

This was likely inflated by Gaga's notoriously sycophantic "little monsters". (A small number DO still exist.)

 

I wouldn't call doom and gloom on Encanto yet.

[titanic2187]

I just realised the highest grossing animation since Covid is still the croods 2, which was released a new ago too during Thanksgiving, so this will be very timely for Enchanto to beat it.   

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, Eric Madrigal said:

I know you're trying to do a joke but Gucci's preview seems fine? It would take the 5-day to like high 20s or something, which would be fairly decent IMO

It's only half a joke. I do believe all of those things about society, but I don't think you can draw those conclusions off the Tuesday preview numbers for Encanto lol. But I also think the Gucci preview number is kinda bad (given the tracking and Gaga fanbase)

[wildphantom]

If Encanto made $1.5 million and Coco did $2.3 million then there really is zero need to panic just yet. Lol. 
 

Simple fact is that some families might not take their small children due to them not being able to be vaccinated yet. So a reduction in that demo is going to happen.  
 

still, there’s plenty of other families all set to go out and make this a successful weekend for animation. I’m hopeful. 
 

Side note - I saw The Power of the Dog at the movies earlier. Wow what a movie. 

Edited November 24, 2021 by wildphantom

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Vaccines for small kids have barely just started rolling out, so it'll be a while before family movies get back on their feet, if at all since most parents are likely used to the day and date thing now. I'm expecting a 5 day total of $30M-$35M for Encanto while Gucci gets the midteens at best. Resident Evil will be lucky to get to even a double digit number at this point.

 

Unfortunately, you still need either capes, tights and/or big explosions or a compelling horror movie to convince people to get their butts in those seats. Dune and Free Guy are the outliers in this, and even those will technically have to wait until home video to break even.

 

I'm willing to bet that most big chains are counting down the days still Spidey arrives on the scene. Barring a rotten tomato, I fully expect it to pull an Endgame and vastly overshadow every other December release. Remember what happened to Shazam, Godzilla 2, Detective Pikachu, Dark Phoenix and MIB International? That's the fate which awaits Matrix 4 (a glorified Max original with a bonus theatrical release for the diehards), The King's Man and Nightmare Alley.

[filmlover]

House of Gucci is bound to do better in big cities than in smaller ones. Given the already low ceiling it needs to clear to post the biggest opening for an adult drama in the COVID era, anything above $15M for the 5-day is automatically good(ish) news.