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Eric Belcher

THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Encanto v Gucci v Resi Evil | Sales available on the first page | We're all gonna die of sadness not COVID

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9 hours ago, von Kenni said:

 

Thanks for sharing insights on this. A very interesting game. This is a very academic and probably a redundant question to ask in isolation as there are many factors, but I wonder how much eventually e.g. dropping half of the screens might effect the potential gross in near-term. It's sure isn't nothing close to -50%, but surely it is -5-10% or more?

 

I mean demand doesn't just flow naturally to the places where the supply is and more supply, it drives demand too. And as you said, a large chunk of lost screens are locations that still keep playing it, which softens the blow even if it still lessens the supply (available times, more prominently on display).

I actually did some math on this concept a few years ago ... Presuming for individual location grosses fit a normal distribution (bell curve), but without the tails - and its likely not quite so simple in reality, but at least in range - the bottom half of locations for a particular film account for roughly 25% of the overall gross. Would be more accurate with showtimes rather than flat locations, but then you get into the nuance of how having 2 screens vs 1 really impacts gross, time of day of show, etc.

 

Ended up creating a formula to forecast holdover grosses based on the rate of decline of PTA (waning demand) and location changes (available supply) , which performed decently well. But then of course you have to constantly adjust for impact from competition, holidays, and so on, so it served as more of a baseline (expected value) than an actual forecast.

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5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think the potential for this wave is not from variants, it is exponential seasonal and holiday growth from a baseline of 50,000-70,000 cases a day. Remember, the first Delta wave this summer started from about a 15,000 case a day baseline and got up to 200,000 cases daily. The same kind of growth among unvaccinated and unboosted people could lead to 300,000 a day.


All I know is, everyone here, get your freaking booster. The CDC guidance, even the new one, is behind every epidemologist and public health expert. It changes the efficacy from about 68 percent back to 95.6 percent. Get your boosters, people.

 

Delta has burned through several of those unvaccinated people however. I don't think we can just linearly assume from a baseline when the variables have changed considerably (some ways better some ways worse) since July. 

 

Of course I certainly intend to get my booster in the next week or so and encourage others to do so, if available to you.

Edited by MrPink
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19 minutes ago, M37 said:

I actually did some math on this concept a few years ago ... Presuming for individual location grosses fit a normal distribution (bell curve), but without the tails - and its likely not quite so simple in reality, but at least in range - the bottom half of locations for a particular film account for roughly 25% of the overall gross. Would be more accurate with showtimes rather than flat locations, but then you get into the nuance of how having 2 screens vs 1 really impacts gross, time of day of show, etc.

 

Ended up creating a formula to forecast holdover grosses based on the rate of decline of PTA (waning demand) and location changes (available supply) , which performed decently well. But then of course you have to constantly adjust for impact from competition, holidays, and so on, so it served as more of a baseline (expected value) than an actual forecast.

 

Thanks! So with the bell curve model as a baseline Dune losing the bottom half could mean that instead of $2.7m 5-day estimate it could be more like $3.6m but because of the other factors the effect is probably much smaller in reality?

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The theatrical business is definitely not normal. Older audience are comfortable waiting for movies to hit streaming or families are not eager to go to multiplex as well. Keep that in mind even for big movies releasing in the near future(including your friendly neighborhood hero). I am not expecting us to go back to pre COVID era of BO for a while(if we ever go there with new strategy of getting movies on streaming at the earliest). Other day there was an article if Nolan's Oppenheimer will be the last big budget drama for big screen. I certainly do hope not. 

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9 hours ago, ando said:

I feel like all the long time holdovers (Dune, NTTD, Venom 2) are going to do better than that forecast above shows, given their Monday numbers. 

I think so too. With Dune underperforming forecasts last weekend, I'm expecting it holding better this week & weekend.

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I know it’s only early morning, but for sales in Canada for today, Gucci is nearly at 4x the number two film (Encanto). Followed in third by Ghostbusters, Resident Evil in a close 4th place, then Dune then Eternals.

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22 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

Thanks! So with the bell curve model as a baseline Dune losing the bottom half could mean that instead of $2.7m 5-day estimate it could be more like $3.6m but because of the other factors the effect is probably much smaller in reality?

Roughly yes, but this is an odd weekend with the holiday.  However, a film losing 50% of locations is typically a bigger hit than -25% potential in reality, because it implies even those theaters holding it are likely reducing showtimes, so the show volume (opportunity) loss is even higher. Dune is probably gonna struggle this 5-day weekend, but I think it will do well into December, being one of the better WOM films in the market and just 1 major release between today and Spider-Man, plus of course the IMAX re-release new weekend.

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BoP predicted 91m running total for Ghostbuster: A up to this sunday, that is >2.0x multiplier by end of 2nd weekend. Seem a bit too aggressive for me as most of the major releases collapse have big 2nd week drop no matter how was the word of mouth and GB:A word of mouth doesn't scream exceptionally strong either. But BoP was spot on last week for their 44m prediction, so maybe they could be right again this time  ,   

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3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

BoP predicted 91m running total for Ghostbuster: A up to this sunday, that is >2.0x multiplier by end of 2nd weekend. Seem a bit too aggressive for me as most of the major releases collapse have big 2nd week drop no matter how was the word of mouth and GB:A word of mouth doesn't scream exceptionally strong either. But BoP was spot on last week for their 44m prediction, so maybe they could be right again this time  ,   

The difference is that Ghostbusters still has IMAX. There’s a reason Free Guy dropped as well as it did on weekend two

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2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Spencer was a good film. Definitely got better in the second half - but damn, Kristen was fantastic and the cinematography was gorgeous.

A bit too long for my taste but extremely well made, from the soundtrack, the cinematography, the acting (not just Stewart!), everything was pitch perfect.

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3 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

A bit too long for my taste but extremely well made, from the soundtrack, the cinematography, the acting (not just Stewart!), everything was pitch perfect.

 

The Anne Boleyn scenes were so haunting.

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