NWH Prediction Contest/Game: DOM and Weekend Ranks. Deadline Dec 19 11:59 Pacific

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

For the record, I thought previews would be in the high twenties/low thirties before pre-sales actually started.

 

Actual already purchased ticket sales that I can verify with my own two eyes show that I was ever so slightly off. 

 

To put this in Old Man On Porch speak that we are both very familiar with and to channel the no-longer-with-us-on-this-board BKB:  The Parking Lots are packed with nary a tumbleweed to be seen.

 

Nicely done.  🤣

 

Thanks for bringing a smile to my face tonight.  I needed it.  Been having a bit of a rough day, but you cheered me up.  

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

No reason to think that this is going to do anything more than the last Spiderman.  Take away a few mill because of the pandemic.  

 

And this is strictly about domestic, isn't it?

 

The thing is, we can actually see tickets that have ALREADY been purchased.  That is what is driving a lot of the discussion here, not enthusiasm for the movie or worry about how people feel about the pandemic.

 

Like I said.  Just be prepared to be pleasantly surprised.  Or shocked, even.

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

what you say doesnt make sense , you are saying that you are not convinced while there is evidence that can convice you that what you say isnt gonna happen, but enough. Suit yourself

 

I have no idea what you are trying to say.

[john2000]

Just now, baumer said:

 

I have no idea what you are trying to say.

my bad in simple words then, the real data shows the complete oppossite of what you are saying.

[baumer]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

The thing is, we can actually see tickets that have ALREADY been purchased.  That is what is driving a lot of the discussion here, not enthusiasm for the movie or worry about how people feel about the pandemic.

 

Like I said.  Just be prepared to be pleasantly surprised.  Or shocked, even.

 

Conversely, maybe my prediction is going to be low.  But some of the numbers here are outlandishly silly imo.  Some are predicting 800-900 million.  That's just foolish imo.

[baumer]

Just now, john2000 said:

my bad in simple words then, the real data shows the complete oppossite of what you are saying.

 

Ok, that makes more sense.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I think we exhausted this point already in the other contest's thread. At this point it's only a week away so no point in getting heated over this. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Menor

[john2000]

800-900 mill dom are probably unrealistic though its christmas and who the hell know how the WOM will be, i could easily see a  A+ cinemascore.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

Some are predicting 800-900 million.  That's just foolish imo.

While I agree it’s unlikely, I don’t think it’s foolish per se. This is (potentially) pointing to an opening north of $250M (though I would say closer to $220M) but Christmas legs of 3x or more wouldn’t be impossible or even improbable. We will see how it goes. As long as it’s over Avengers DOM and my club succeeds, that’s all I really care about 🤣

[baumer]

Well, there is only a week left, so yea let's just wait and see.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Multiverse of XXR said:

While I agree it’s unlikely, I don’t think it’s foolish per se. This is (potentially) pointing to an opening north of $250M (though I would say closer to $220M) but Christmas legs of 3x or more wouldn’t be impossible or even improbable. We will see how it goes. As long as it’s over Avengers DOM and my club succeeds, that’s all I really care about 🤣

my ow range is 225-250 from a 45 mill previews, i have applied a 5-5,5 multi as for the final dom cume i have no fucking idea . my range is like 630-750 lol

[Menor the Destroyer]

Not necessarily what I expect, but it occurs to me that I might want to enter a less crowded space. 

 

Username	Menor
DOM rank	11
DOM gross	$590,000,000

 

Will input the second part later. 

 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Menor

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

my ow range is 225-250 from a 45 mill previews, i have applied a 5-5,5 multi as for the final dom cume i have no fucking idea . my range is like 630-750 lol

Yea this is basically (close enough to) what I think. 

[john2000]

john2000

#4

752

Edited December 12, 2021 by john2000

[Cap]

Just popping in for a second. I don’t have any numbers or predictions, because I am not going to participate since I am not eligible. 
 

I think there is a difference between being cautious about numbers, and not adapting to new data.  There is substantial amount of data in the tracking thread that can tell us What’s going on next weekend.

 

I’ve been really vocal about not getting too excited at the large pre-sales. But we’re getting close enough to the release date, that the writings pretty much on the wall. I also want to stress that my quote/unquote pessimism was really just a moderation tactic. I would much rather us be in a scenario where we all think it’s going to make 100 million opening weekend, and then are excited that it makes 200 million opening weekend. Instead of a scenario where we all think it’s going to make 300 million opening weekend, it only makes 200 million opening weekend. And somehow that’s a disappointment. That has been my driving force behind all of my Spider-Man posts over the past month. 
 

TL;DR As Mel Brooks says, hope for the best expect the worst.

[Legion Again]

53 minutes ago, john2000 said:

john2000

#3 

752

$752,000,000 would be a result of 4th place (behind TFA, AEG, Avatar).

[john2000]

16 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

$752,000,000 would be a result of 4th place (behind TFA, AEG, Avatar).

My bad forgot about the re release

[DC Rich]

On 12/11/2021 at 4:54 PM, baumer said:

 

Conversely, maybe my prediction is going to be low.  But some of the numbers here are outlandishly silly imo.  Some are predicting 800-900 million.  That's just foolish imo.

 

 

 

JK.

[IcarusReborn]

Spider-Man: No Way Home - OW $185M/ Domestic Total $515/ Global Total $1.3B

[Noctis]

On 12/12/2021 at 1:48 AM, baumer said:

And I'm not against this movie in any way.  I enjoyed both of the Holland Spider-man films, quite a bit.  I enjoyed the hell out of IW and EG.  I'm just not convinced that we are out of the pandemic yet and this means that mega grossing films aren't going to come back yet.  Me saying it will "only" do about 340 mill is not a sleight against it.  

 

Are you on drugs? $340m? Are you living in the real world?