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Eric Atreides

No Way Home Weekend Thread | #RIP AIW Record | 260M OW DOM | 340M OS | 600M OW WW W/O CHINA

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On 12/13/2021 at 6:44 AM, Eric Osborn said:

[redacted] coming in as [redacted]. Doctor Strange with an ugly haircut. Five of the Sinister Six, with Jamie Foxx, Alfred Molina, and the sexy beast known as Willem Dafoe all returning. But perhaps most exciting of all, the one thing everybody can’t stop talking about, is...something I’m not really allowed to mention, but you already know about it and know that it’s hype.

I could have sworn that the first sentence stuff was considered more spoilery than the last sentence stuff. What a movie :hahaha:

Edited by Product Driven Legion
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28 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

I could have sworn that the first sentence stuff was considered more spoilery than the last sentence stuff. What a movie :hahaha:

Wasn't that like one of the first things revealed in the press? If not, then...oops.

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5 minutes ago, Eric Osborn said:

Wasn't that like one of the first things revealed in the press? If not, then...oops.

Has not been confirmed on the press at all — an open secret like T&A, except slightly less open. I’ll go edit my quote.

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On 12/2/2021 at 4:00 AM, Product Driven Legion said:

Some legs thoughts using true fss:

TFA 4.55x (using 54m prev est)

RO 4x

TLJ 3.3x

TROS 3.45x 

 

Assuming a 5 IM for NWH, these are the overall legs that those true fss legs translate too:

TFA 3.84x

RO 3.4x

TLJ 2.84x

TROS 2.96x

 

Personally I think it will need bad reception to reach those tlj nums, and I do not expect bad reception. But just in case, a true disaster scenario could be like 3x true fss legs (this is adding 2x instead of TLJ 2.3x, so about 13% worse) for 2.6x overall legs. That would still take 250 to 650.

Reposting this for visibility. I really think it should be able to do 3.5-4 true FSS legs for 3-3.4x legs — omicron could bring us under and some real zeitgeistiness/people staying away from crowds could maaaaaaybe bring us over.   
 

 

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@Cap, could we get a summary like this for the other 4 columns?  
 

Spoiler
Quote

The Previews Are Locked In.  We had 34 users submit Preview Predictions.  Names omitted to protect the guilty:

 

 

PREVIEWS
45,000,000
42,120,000
40,500,000
40,000,000
37,000,000
36,000,000
36,000,000
35,510,000
35,069,420
34,200,000
34,000,000
33,255,743
33,000,000
31,000,000
30,500,000
30,200,000
30,200,000
29,000,000
28,800,000
28,000,000
28,000,000
27,690,000
27,500,000
27,300,000
25,000,000
25,000,000
24,100,000
21,400,000
20,000,000
18,500,000
16,500,000
16,000,000
15,000,000

 

There's still 2 weeks left to finalize your F/S/S/OW predictions -- or just send me predictions!  If you edit them, PLEASE tag me.  I don't want to miss any last minute tweaks. 

 

 

Edited by Product Driven Legion
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Don’t take these too seriously, plenty of rough estimation, different franchises, different months, different Th start times, different pandemic conditions, etc. But still, was playing around with numbers and I figured some people might like this as a reference. 
 

Movie Final PS (fri morning) Previews True PS True FSS True FSS/True PS True FSS-True PS wknd
AEG 190,000,000 60,000,000 130,000,000 297,115,007 2.286 167,115,007 357,115,007
TFA 140,000,000 54,000,000 86,000,000 193,966,675 2.255 107,966,675 247,966,675
TLJ 120,000,000 45,000,000 75,000,000 175,009,584 2.333 100,009,584 220,009,584
TROS 115,000,000 40,000,000 75,000,000 137,383,864 1.832 62,383,864 177,383,864
IW 105,000,000 39,000,000 66,000,000 218,698,183 3.314 152,698,183 257,698,183
Geomean 130,975,482 46,921,990 83,872,899 197,833,069 2.359 111,442,434 245,433,419
Trimmed geomean 124,547,699 45,978,566 78,500,723 195,079,384 2.291 118,137,671 227,697,791
NWH rough proj 133000000 47000000 86000000 197046447.5 2.291 111,046,448 244046447.5
NWH worst case 128000000 46000000 82000000 150206358 1.832 68,206,358 196206358
NWH best case 140000000 52000000 88000000 220000000 2.500 132,000,000 272000000
Edited by Product Driven Legion
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