The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

‘Super Mario Bros. Movie’ To Score At Least $85M-$90M+ 5-Day, But Bound To Mushroom – Early Box Office Outlook

https://deadline.com/2023/03/super-mario-bros-movie-box-office-projection-1235301498/

Quote

Illumination/Universal/Nintendo’s Super Mario Bros Movie just landed on tracking this morning ahead of its Easter weekend release, and the animated film is shaping up to make at least $85M-$90M+ over its Wednesday through Sunday launch and that’s on the conservative side.

Given the fervent response by fans to trailers, it would not be shocking to see a triple digit opening for Super Mario over five, however, the accuracy of tracking is still mending from the pandemic.

The pic is currently strong with boy and girls under 12 equally, set to conquer families, and also strong with the videogamer sect of guys under 25.

 

[cookie]

 

[thajdikt]

3 minutes ago, cookie said:

 

Hoping for 120M+ over the 5-day

[reddevil19]

36 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Why look any further than DCEU?

 

TSS 26 from 130ish SS.

 

Evey DCEU sequel has dropped big

 

BvS to JL - 160ish to 90ish

WW to WW84 - 100 to 12 (right?)

SS to TSS - 130 ish to 25 ish

Shazam

 

Look out Aquaman 

 

 

 

WW84 and TSS aren't valid comparisons, given how they released.

Also, BvS was the sequel to MoS, and obviously increased from that but its reception killed JL. I think DC definitely doesn't have the brand loyalty as they've been so scattershot, which is why only very high profile flicks will do well, and they are also far more impacted by their predecessor's reception. Aquaman was entertaining, but not beloved, it's been a while since then and a lot of misfires in the interim, plus the whole overall DCU/DCEU debacle, so Aquaman 2 could very well be in trouble (aside from any quality issues of its own), but I think you're oversimplifying things.

[Tinalera]

38 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Are you looking at urban theatres?

 

I'm in the suburbs of the GTA, and sales are much higher. My 8 screen theatre has over 100 tickets sold today for Shazam across three showings. About 13% of seats sold.

 

Friday has about the same tickets sold, but 8 showings, because another screen was added, and because that only released Tuesday evening, it's barely sold any tickets.

 

Other theatres around me are similar. I'm in a family oriented suburb though, and, we may be seeing differences in the type of market.

 

 

This admittedly is still kind of a WIP. Right now I am (for my sanity lol) holding to 3-4 theatres per area.  When I first started counting, I did do more urban theatres, greater toronto area/southwestern Ontario. My experience with urban areas is that, they can be their own thing. I would see some theatres, like your example where they'd sell much more than the bigger areas. Right now Im just trying to kinda-show an average-ish type of snapshot. As I get further along and get more data for more comps, I may reach out a bit more to more urban and "smaller" areas.  

 

EDIT: The other challenge is that Cineplex is kinda funky sometimes with how they do presales-I try to get the same theatres for each film, but even in the bigger areas I do, there are some theatres which sometimes outright don't have presales right off, so trying to work that all out is part of this WIP-but it does get frustrating, esp when some theatres will have Thurs presales, but not friday (or vise versa)

 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Tinalera

[vafrow]

14 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

This admittedly is still kind of a WIP. Right now I am (for my sanity lol) holding to 3-4 theatres per area.  When I first started counting, I did do more urban theatres, greater toronto area/southwestern Ontario. My experience with urban areas is that, they can be their own thing. I would see some theatres, like your example where they'd sell much more than the bigger areas. Right now Im just trying to kinda-show an average-ish type of snapshot. As I get further along and get more data for more comps, I may reach out a bit more to more urban and "smaller" areas.  

 

 

No worries at all. I appreciate the Canadian comps. I really should formalize what I'm doing, but just not disciplined enough to do it consistently.

 

I've been noticing that the trend for my theatre hasn't been as bad as the tracking has suggested, so I'm just curious. If this is playing very different in different markets, maybe there's some potential to surprise.

[MightyDargon]

Mario doing 90 mil is a pathetic underestimate. That would be like Jim Cameron saying Avatar 2 would open to 80 mil. I know studios want to lowball but that really feels like an insult to our intelligence. 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Shazam 2 under M3gans OW would be ... something.

M3GAN was hyped though. Should’ve opened higher actually. 
 

If this is over $30m it won’t be as bad as it first seemed. Won’t be good either, but not as bad lol. 
 

As for the budget, the trades will confirm it today or tomorrow, if it’s 100 or 125 or 150. 

[Ledmonkey96]

Looking at the main local theater and not having any real comparisons
Thursday
3PM 6/86
6:45 34/86
9:45 6/86

Total: 46/258 (Somewhat decent 18% capacity considering walk-ups)

Friday
12PM 7/130
12:15 0/130
12:30 2/86
3:05 1/130

3:20 0/130

3:35 5/86

6:10 4/130

6:25 0/130

6:40 14/86

9:15 2/130
9:30 0/130

9:45 2/86

Total 37/1384 

 

Saturday; The schedule is the same as Friday
17/346 in the first set of 3 movies
17/346 in the second set
2/346 in the 6 o'clock set (Jesus christ)
6/346 in the last set
Total 42/1384
 

Sunday same schedule as Fri/Sat

Total 7/1384 
 

Sunda and Friday morning don't really surprise me but Friday night and Saturday night being so abysmal is really BAD..... 

[DisposedData]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

‘Super Mario Bros. Movie’ To Score At Least $85M-$90M+ 5-Day, But Bound To Mushroom – Early Box Office Outlook

https://deadline.com/2023/03/super-mario-bros-movie-box-office-projection-1235301498/

 

Does Dealine just make up random numbers? This doesn't follow the pre sales at all.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Does Dealine just make up random numbers? This doesn't follow the pre sales at all.

Deadline is reporting Industry tracking data they get from insiders. Its not just them. All the trades report them. 

[Flamengo81]

43 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Mario doing 90 mil is a pathetic underestimate. That would be like Jim Cameron saying Avatar 2 would open to 80 mil. I know studios want to lowball but that really feels like an insult to our intelligence. 

To be fair, is only an insult for the very few of us who are inside this particular forum with the best trackers in the world. I don't think people who follow this thread should be the parameter...

[Flamengo81]

16 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Does Dealine just make up random numbers? This doesn't follow the pre sales at all.

Also they said is on the conservative side. I imagine that Deadline normally just goes extremely safe so that it does not backfire on them if a movie collapses and underperforms for some reason. I mean... I think Mario is going to be awesome and debut to 120M+ 5day, but there is stilla a chance the movie is terrible and reviews just kills a lot of the momentum for it, we just never know.

[JustLurking]

It's really early to rule out that reported number anyway. Yes early tracking here does look stronger but it's still fairly far out and things can absolutely change in 3 weeks, Mario could not have the walk-up family business of other family films, etc. etc. plus we're working on holiday wed opener here so shenanigans can go different.

 

Just reminder of how things changed for A2 or Antman closer to release, there were even arguments that it was unreasonable to suggest high teens were even possible for AM3 and it ended up doing just that. If tracking continues being strong all the way I am sure predictions will go up in due time, but don't make the mistake of thinking things are set in stone this far out and tracking can't swing one way or another.

Edited March 16, 2023 by JustLurking

[DisposedData]

18 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

Also they said is on the conservative side. I imagine that Deadline normally just goes extremely safe so that it does not backfire on them if a movie collapses and underperforms for some reason. I mean... I think Mario is going to be awesome and debut to 120M+ 5day, but there is stilla a chance the movie is terrible and reviews just kills a lot of the momentum for it, we just never know.

True but they overestimated Shazam by quite a lot.

[GOGODanca]

2 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

True but they overestimated Shazam by quite a lot.

they can just say that mediocre reviews caused it to underperform

[TalismanRing]

20 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

NYC Regal (Local) 6pm)

 

Shazam 2: 44/1863

 

Wed Comps

Shazam 1:  $2.012m

Ghostbusters;  $2m

Avatar 2:  $2.94m

Black Widow:  $1.75m

Shang-Chi:  $1.17m   (SC over indexed about 50% due to high % Asian pop - so closer to $1.75m)

Birds Of Prey:  $1.66m   (Rated R)

The Suicide Squad:   $2.34m  (Rated R)

 

Black Adam #s for Thur - 200/2638 - if Shazam 2 jumps 30/50/70% tomorrow -  $2.17m/$2.5m/$2.84m comps

 

 

NYC Regal (Local) 2:50pm

 

Shazam 2: 62/1863 (first show 3pm) (40% jump)

 

Thur Comps

Shazam 1:  $1.96m

Jumanji 2: $1.64m

Ghostbusters;  $2.27m

Black Adam: $2.36m

Black Widow:  $1.64m

Shang-Chi:  $1.06m   (SC over indexed about 50% due to high % Asian pop - so closer to $1.6m)

Birds Of Prey:  $1.49m   (Rated R)

The Suicide Squad:   $1.7m  (Rated R)

 

 

Edited March 16, 2023 by TalismanRing

[Ledmonkey96]

yikes, with a sub 2mil thursday 25mil would be difficult nevermind 30, least i assume that's how it looks.

Edited March 16, 2023 by Ledmonkey96

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

yikes, with a sub 2mil thursday 25mil would be difficult nevermind 30, least i assume that's how it looks.

That is outlier. sub 2m is impossible. 

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is outlier. sub 2m is impossible. 

Anything is possible but I think the Black Adam comp is the best on the list