The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shazam 2 MTC1 previews - 67680/551491 1116269.84 2870 shows

 

Will update MTC2 in the morning. Looks around 3.4m previews. 

Shazam 2 MTC2 previews  - 60829/441404 762952.68 2852 shows

 

Walkups were even better at MTC2 which is normal. Bumping up previews to 3.7m. 

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Wick pinpoint change 36%. That means last week was around 50M and now 70M ? @Shawn

Very close. Over on both. Basically moved the pinpoint from cautious to bullish within the overall range shift.

 

Hard to ignore this will act more like a 3rd movie than a 4th movie now with those reviews and how healthy the market is again. Hopefully not overcorrecting too much but time will tell.

[Krissykins]

D&D sorely needs the opening weekend to increase though, that budget is too hefty for any of those numbers to be good. International would have to do the heavy lifting for it to be a hit ($370-400m). 

[charlie Jatinder]

59 minutes ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Previous low 49 vs now 59: +20.4%

high 59-> 74: +15.6%

geomean 56->66.1: +18%

 

Even new high of 74 over previous geomean is only +32. Does seem a  bit mysterious 

Basically means throw geo mean out of window like @Shawn insisted few weeks back.

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Shazam 2 MTC2 previews  - 60829/441404 762952.68 2852 shows

 

Walkups were even better at MTC2 which is normal. Bumping up previews to 3.7m. 

Yeah that make more sense with how I was seeing Harkins. $3.5-3.75M can happen.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Tinalera]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

No worries at all. I appreciate the Canadian comps. I really should formalize what I'm doing, but just not disciplined enough to do it consistently.

 

I've been noticing that the trend for my theatre hasn't been as bad as the tracking has suggested, so I'm just curious. If this is playing very different in different markets, maybe there's some potential to surprise.

I try to be consistent, but Im not always great at it, I just post what I can when I can. Everyone here is so helpful and its simply a "submit what you can can it all helps" and very encouraging.   As for formalizing, im still kind of in that "what does and what doesn't work" phase of things, but getting more down which Im happy with. I enjoy providing the numbers just as a contrast to see how they match up with US numbers. 

[Cooper Legion]

28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Basically means throw geo mean out of window

 

 

28 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

like @Shawn insisted few weeks back.

[el sid]

Shazam 2, counted yesterday for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 271 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 78 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 41 (11 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 28 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 32 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 158 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 214 (14 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 822.

Up mediocre 52.5% since Tuesday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday of the release week for Friday): TSS (8M true Friday) had 1.560 sold tickets = 4.2M,
SC (20.7M) had 3.740 = 4.55M,
The Batman (39.4M) had 7.284 = 4.45M,
Eternals (21.2M) had 4.090 sold tickets = 4.25M
and Thor 4 (40.5M) had 6.946 sold tickets = 4.8M.

The average number (without TSS because Shazam 2 has no HBO Max competition) is 4.5M true Friday. But it should attract more families than the normal super hero movie - for a pure family film 822 sold tickets would be fine.
The question is how many millions should I add to the 4.5M?

[Cooper Legion]

23 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Fwiw there was no need to model the data when it’s been provided directly:

2020 — 9.18

2021 — 10.17

2022 — 10.53

 

(pg 17: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001411579/a1d28345-3a07-4309-8814-adb12459769f.pdf )

 

I guess numbers isn’t aware of that, maybe I will email them to get it changed.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

This going to open to a perfectly mediocre $35M isn't it? Not only is my club dead, but we'll also be deprived of a legendary weekend thread. I guess this is what I get for acting on my gut.

[Dragoncaine]

1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

This going to open to a perfectly mediocre $35M isn't it? Not only is my club dead, but we'll also be deprived of a legendary weekend thread. I guess this is what I get for acting on my gut.

I personally wouldn't go that high if the preliminary signs pointing to a "B" CS pan out, but who knows?

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

This going to open to a perfectly mediocre $35M isn't it? Not only is my club dead, but we'll also be deprived of a legendary weekend thread. I guess this is what I get for acting on my gut.

No, it probably isn't, but your club was pretty much banking on a sub 20 anyway, and even then it was a flip. So like, chances it would work were pretty damn low.

[Skim Beeble]

5 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

This going to open to a perfectly mediocre $35M isn't it? Not only is my club dead, but we'll also be deprived of a legendary weekend thread. I guess this is what I get for acting on my gut.

a 9.4x IM seems tough but I could be wrong idk.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Tinalera]

Dungeons and Dragons 

Thur Mar 30 and Fri Mar 31 (T-14)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	3	13	52	2725	2777	0.0187
	Fri	3	19	80	4876	3969	0.0201
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	14	43	2738	2781	0.0154
	Fri	4	14	150	3132	3282	0.0457

[Dragoncaine]

Oof, $3.4m Thursday it is, per Deadline!

 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[MightyDargon]

"thunders" to 3.4. Thunderfarts more like it. Probably high 20s opening (since it's still a franchise and the most invested views are likely to rush out early).

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

This going to open to a perfectly mediocre $35M isn't it? Not only is my club dead, but we'll also be deprived of a legendary weekend thread. I guess this is what I get for acting on my gut.

Closer to $30M. Like I predicted last week, It won't surpass $34-35M but it won't fall below $30M either

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Closer to $30M. Like I predicted last week, It won't surpass $34-35M but it won't fall below $30M either

 

Come on now. Could very well go below 30.