The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Tinalera]

Guardians Of The Galaxy 3

Thurs May 4 Fri May 5 (T-3)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouve	Thurs	4	26	1157	4192	5349	0.2163
	Fri	4	26	1161	2879	4040	0.2873
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	26	656	3097	3753	0.1747
	Fri	4	19	744	3592	4336	0.1715

 

 

Antman Quantum Comparison T-3

 

# theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent Vancouve Thurs 4 29 1414 4448 5862 0.2412   Fri 3 25 1325 3552 4877 0.2716                     # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent Calgary Thurs 4 30 735 5992 6327 0.1161   Fri 4 30 640 5935 6575 0.0973

[GOGODanca]

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/box-office-guardians-of-the-galaxy-3-opening-weekend-projection-1235600984/

[keysersoze123]

Quote

The superhero adventure is hoping to bring in $120 million in its opening weekend, falling in between the starts of 2014’s “Guardians of the Galaxy” ($94 million) and 2017’s sequel ($146 million). There’s a chance that “Vol. 3” could fall short of those projections and land closer to a less-spectacular $110 million to $118 million, according to independent tracking services.

 

[ZackM]

"Independent tracking services"

[GOGODanca]

You guys think trades and studios read these forums? 

[superheavysun]

GOTG 3 was never going to open anywhere near BP 2. It will be lucky to hit 140m opening. It will be lucky to hit 700m.

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

You guys think trades and studios read these forums? 

 

All of them? No.

 

Some of them? Absolutely. 

[keysersoze123]

We stopped getting those Fandango reports for movie presales. Even when they are bad they would massage it by comparing with random movie like for Guardians they can say like its doing 3x the presales compared to Black Adam or something like that or even compare the presales with the last movie that released 6 years ago. 

 

Studio will come up with conservative OW projection. I think we will get it tomorrow. @Shawn would know for sure. 

[AJG]

12 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

You guys think trades and studios read these forums? 

Someone from Forbes definitely used to. A couple of posters in the China section got a shoutout.

[TerwillikerInst]

It's genuinely amazing how Hollywood studios' ability to sell a movie has atrophied so thanks to the ever-increasing expansion of IP blockbusters.

 

Like, getting the word out by doing early screenings and making sure the positive WOM gets spread is not some crazy newfangled experimental marketing technique. 

 

They've been playing on easy mode for so long and eventually, this is going to happen to every other franchise too. 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2023 by TerwillikerInst

[screambaby]

If guardians does 140  is there gonna be alot of belly aching? Asking seriously...I stil don't see its legs being anywhere as bad as antman

[thajdikt]

7 minutes ago, screambaby said:

If guardians does 140  is there gonna be alot of belly aching? Asking seriously...I stil don't see its legs being anywhere as bad as antman

140M is basically impossible at this moment in time, and I don´t really think sales can improve to the point that is viable.

[el sid]

GotG3 counted today for Thursday, May 4. 2 days to go.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 536 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 794 (31 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 156 (18 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 141 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 282 (14 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 1.009 (27 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.688 (36 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.606.
Up 7% since yesterday.
Comps (all three films counted also on Tuesday of the release week - unfortunately I don't have many comps for Tuesday): Thor 4 (29M) had 7.843 sold tickets = 58.5% = 17M form previews for GotG3.
Black Adam (7.6M) had 2.046 sold tickets = x2.25 = 17.1M.
And TGM (19.3M) had 2.864 sold tickets = x1.61 = 31M (of course too good unless GotG3 has great walk-ups).
 

The average preview number from Thor 4 and Black Adam is 17.05M (yesterday it were 14.9M but with partly different comps).
I doubt that GotG3 will have worse walk-ups than BA so high teens would be my guess for the moment.
Overall a step in the right direction (compared to yesterday).

[nevermore]

Deadline is saying $110M

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/box-office-guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-projection-1235354045/

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, superheavysun said:

GOTG 3 was never going to open anywhere near BP 2. It will be lucky to hit 140m opening. It will be lucky to hit 700m.

Big disagree. The OW for GotG 2 adjusts past BP2 and MCU has gotten way more frontloaded since then. Zero reason this shouldn’t have pushed 200 on OW given a “healthy” MCU. The fact that we might get like half that OW just speaks volumes to how unhealthy of a stage the franchise is in now. 

[M37]

22 minutes ago, nevermore said:

Deadline is saying $110M

 

https://deadline.com/2023/05/box-office-guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-3-projection-1235354045/

“Since reviews hit last week for GOTG3, advance ticket sales have been growing.”  🤔

(Surprised they didn’t credit “independent tracking services” too)
 

All tracking estimates seem to be converging on ~$110M, and with some uncertainty left, that seems about right 

Edited May 2, 2023 by M37

[Spidey Freak]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Zero reason this shouldn’t have pushed 200 on OW given a “healthy” MCU. 

 

GotG2 wasn't as well received as the original film. It's not shocking that the third film will decrease. Quantumania probably knocked off 10-20M off the OW but who the heck was expecting this to open close to 200M even before Ant-Man 3? The revisionism to make the doom and gloom worse is unnecessary lmao

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

GotG2 wasn't as well received as the original film. It's not shocking that the third film will decrease. Quantumania probably knocked off 10-20M off the OW but who the heck was expecting this to open close to 200M even before Ant-Man 3? The revisionism to make the doom and gloom worse is unnecessary lmao

 

@XXR Metro Boomin

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Problem is Friday is tracking towards 30m. I am not seeing 6.5x even if it goes up 20% and drops like 25% on Sunday(which wont be easy as its not that big for big spillover)

If it does like 18.5-32-40-30 that is 6.5x. None of that requires anything particularly crazy looking at QM's internal multi/bumps and GOTG3's pace being well ahead ever since last Friday. Only thing optimistic is Sun drop but GOTG2 did have a pretty good Sun drop, not sure if there was any special factor for that Sun. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

@XXR Metro Boomin

 

now that’s just mean dude.