The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 6/15/2023 at 12:59 AM, Porthos said:

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23802	24186	384	1.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

384

 

Day One Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	53.71		715	715		0/158	21618/22333	3.20%		1663	23.09%		9.67m
A2	29.09		1320	1320		0/138	19300/20620	6.40%		4494	8.54%		4.95m
Wick 4	79.83		481	481		0/82	11915/12396	3.88%		5448	7.05%		7.11m
Indy 5	91.00		422	422		0/122	18834/19256	2.19%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     48/7967  [0.60% sold]
MATINEE INFO NOT COMPILED DUE TO LACK OF TIME

---

Sun:   32/457           [7.00% sold]

Mon:  174/2073       [8.39% sold]

Tue:   178/21656     [0.82% sold]

 

===

 

Not too bad of a start, IMO.  Didn't include TGM as a comp because that was a massively frontloaded pic locally.  Will throw in NTTD for at least a couple of days once I have its early access showings.  Am somewhat surprised at the relative lack of tickets for the Sun Walmart+ showtimes (for instance, Century Arden hasn't sold a single ticket for it's Sun showing yet), but that could just mean that Atom isn't very popular locally.

 

Now we just see where it goes from here and how much of a relative fan rush there was for this.

 

(also if folks want to bring up some comps BESIDES TGM [which I flat out refuse to use], lemme know and I'll think it over)

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	23878	24369	491	2.01%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	183
Total Seats Sold Today	107

 

Day Two Comps:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	52.40		222	937		0/158	21395/22332	4.20%		1663	29.52%		9.43m
Ava 2	29.07		369	1689		0/142	19649/21338	7.92%		4494	10.93%		4.94m
Wick 4	74.73		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	9.01%		6.65m
Indy 5	101.45		62	484		0/122	18778/19262	2.51%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:     56/7967       [0.70% sold]
Matinee:    2/1687      [0.12% | 0.41% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    49/6018  [0.81% | 9.98% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]   

---

Sun:   40/457           [8.75% sold] [+8 tickets]

Mon:  237/2256       [8.39% sold] [+63 tickets]

Tue:   214/21656     [0.99% sold] [+36 tickets]

 

===========

 

So I'm still working the presentation for the Discount Tuesday situation, as frankly, it's kind of a mess locally.

 

Cinemark isn't participating at all nor is the indie TrueIMAX theater (as I expected for both).  Near as I can tell, neither is Cinema West.  Studio Movie Grill, on the other hand, is full speed ahead on all Tuesday showings with no membership required.  Fair enough.  The spanner in the works are the local Regal theaters.  Most, but not all, are indeed participating in "Regal Value Day" for folks who have a free Regal membership... i think. 

 

I say I think, because some of the theaters didn't have an option for Regal Members to opt in to buy a discounted ticket and I didn't feel like navigating the corp site and punching in my own Regal Number at those showings.  If I have time tomorrow I'll think about doing that.  But for now, I'm excluding those showtimes. 

 

Also, there's the elephant in the room that one must be a Regal member to qualify in the first place and while I reckon most folks will be, I also suspect there will be a non-zero percentage who aren't.  So take that Discount Tuesday percentage as something of a ceiling, at least locally. 

 

I will be using whatever percentage is spat out, along with all of the PLFs to figure out some sort of ad-hoc percentage to hack off the comp at final call.  But that's a ways away.  For now I'm not adjusting the comps at all, especially since I am unsure of the Sun/Mon/Tue splits.  Did make a note reminding folks about the Discount Tue wildcard however.

 

As always, play it by ear.

 

[M37]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

its releasing a week later or 2 weeks later?

I had it in my head that it was next week, but apparently not. At least we get a bit of a tracking break between the Fast X --> Flash run before the Indy-->Opp/Barbie stretch

[M37]

6 hours ago, Relevation said:

Whoooooah the fuck 

Has Deadline ever projected that much higher than trackers here for an animated film? I feel like they usually underball

Would think their source was extrapolating based on other lower level animated openings (or even Minions, which would be a mistake on a number of levels), and so not adjusting for the Disney family weakness outside of bigger metro). Most updates here suggest a mid-$2M range, would be surprised if it got to $3M

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, M37 said:

Would think their source was extrapolating based on other lower level animated openings (or even Minions, which would be a mistake on a number of levels), and so not adjusting for the Disney family weakness outside of bigger metro). Most updates here suggest a mid-$2M range, would be surprised if it got to $3M

Is it possible it overindexed in some places or maybe had a higher ATP than expected?

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

68-102 covers all the bases for Indy for sure 🙂

 

I was thinking Shawn took my numbers for Indy for the floor...and the Indy uber-fans for the ceiling:).

 

That's a good strategy for tracking.  Hopefully, next week, he'll have my updated Oppenheimer thoughts as his midrange, and not his floor:)...

[M37]

18 minutes ago, YM! said:

Is it possible it overindexed in some places or maybe had a higher ATP than expected?

Problem is, MTC1 as the big kahuna sample came in under 50K final, and its a long way to even $3M from there, with even an average ATP without PLFs (but with 3D). Elemental would have to had played very broadly, making up ground in the lower MTC1 footprint areas like Canada and Middle America, and while the former I can see, the latter hasn't exactly been shelling out cash to support Disney family films of late

[charlie Jatinder]

$10-10.2m

[Bobzaruni]

1 minute ago, across the Jat verse said:

$10-10.2m

60M-70M looks like the expected range then?

[charlie Jatinder]

Elemental 2.4

Blackening 0.75-0.8

[vafrow]

2 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

60M-70M looks like the expected range then?

 

Multiple of under 6.0 is possible, so under $60M scenarios are still on the table I think. The Father's Day and long weekend effect should keep this a little higher, but hard to judge.

[CrashBandicoot81]

.

Edited June 16, 2023 by CrashBandicoot81

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, CrashBandicoot81 said:

I'm not sure if it is Disney movies are becoming stale to the GA, They are appealing more to Disney Adults than kids, or if it is better to wait for Disney PLus or the combination of all 3. But Elemental is just another sign that the Disney Brand certainly isn't as strong as it used to be.

 

Lightyear should have been a fun campy homage to 90s action  and sci-fi movies that i can see Andy loving, not this weirdly dark and grim thing that it turned out to be. It is like it was made for Disney Adults if you know what i am saying.

Take posts like this to the weekend thread or Disney thread. They’re not tracking related.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/9/2023 at 12:33 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Transformers 6	3,183	119,071		86,622		32,449	5,045	20,891
Spider-Verse	3,552	98,945	-12.51%	95,642	876.44	3,303	26	0
Little Mermaid	3,543	60,112	-25.05%	53,972	516.03	6,140	0	6,049
The Boogeyman	2,779	38,320	-11.41%	38,290	256.59	30	0	0
Guardians Vol. 3	2,623	29,827	-13.71%	29,168	308.91	659	0	621
Fast X	2,370	27,438	-22.32%	27,391	271.74	47	0	0
Super Mario Bros	1,460	15,716	-36.75%	15,451	135.58	265	0	247
About My Father	872	7,070	-68.44%	7,070	91.85	0	0	0
The Machine	826	4,514	-79.15%	4,514	79.44	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Transformers - 119,071 (3,183 TC)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436)

 - Ghostbusters - 117,504 (3,243)

 - Halloween Ends - 123,861 (3,298)

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

The Flash (6/12 EA) - 25 (25 TC)

The Flash - 82,414 (2,823)

 - Venom 2 - 81,718 (2,807)

 - Black Adam - 78,913 (2,901)

 

Elemental - 59,677 (2,622 TC)

 - NTTD - 63,789 (2,910)

 - Ghostbusters - 63,866 (2,826)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 64,819 (2,899)

 

The Blackening (6/14 EA) - 819 (762 TC)

The Blackening - 19,750 (1,221 TC)

 - House of Gucci - 19,223 (1,835)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627)

 - X - 19,249 (1,746)

 - Magic Mike's Last Dance - 19,139 (1,224)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Indiana Jones - 13,492 (2,485 TC)

 - Venom 2 - 12,285 (1,978)

 - Shazam 2 - 10,850 (2,193)

 - Minions 2 - 16,936 (2,268)

 

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Sound of Freedom - 4,653 (1,339 TC)

Joy Ride - 3,854 (1,155 TC)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3,948 (1,668)

 - M3GAN - 3,770 (1,545)

 

T-5 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Oppenheimer - 5,419 (1,954 TC)

 - Nope - 7,656 (1,929)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3,573 (1,506)

 

 

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Flash	3,330	116,640		101,736		14,904	5,344	0
Elemental	3,147	83,646		66,117		17,529	0	14,852
Transformers 6	2,911	56,831	-43.73%	48,560	512.68	8,271	0	7,920
Spider-Verse 2	2,969	53,503	-45.93%	53,232	561.03	271	6	0
The Little Mermaid	2,742	35,466	-41.00%	33,281	385.11	2,185	0	2,152
The Blackening	1,683	29,465		29,448		17	0	0
The Boogeyman	1,830	18,163	-52.60%	18,157	186.65	6	0	0
Guardians Vol. 3	1,797	18,069	-39.42%	17,790	242.33	279	0	255
Fast X	1,280	8,243	-69.96%	8,231	192.24	12	0	0
Super Mario Bros	686	4,583	-70.84%	4,515	141.87	68	0	56

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

OW Showtimes Comps

The Flash - 116,640 (3,330)

 - Transformers 6 - 119,071 (3,183)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife - 117,504 (3,243)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436)

 - No Time to Die - 112,174 (3,529)

 

Elemental - 83,646 (3,147 TC)

 - Encanto - 80,175 (3,263)

 - Strange World - 71,743 (3,406)

 - Super Pets - 91,510 (3,390)

 - Puss in Boots - 71,525 (3,434)

 

The Blackening - 29,465 (1,683 TC)

 - The Night House - 27,094 (2,052)

 - Studio 666 - 30,292 (2,145)

 - Men - 31,745 (2,100)

 - Bones and All - 28,849 (2,409)

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Asteroid City 6/19-6/20 EA - 32 (32)

Asteroid City - 16,466 (1,148 TC)

 - CopShop - 16,693 (1,519)

 - Devotion - 15,281 (1,334)

 - Operation Fortune - 15,881 (1,272)

No Hard Feelings 6/17 EA - 357 (357)

No Hard Feelings - 27,994 (1,836 TC)

 - Marry Me - 27,987 (2,321)

 - Dog - 26,312 (2,172)

 - Bros - 25,620 (2,161)

 - Amsterdam - 25,658 (1,878)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Indiana Jones - 13,664 (2,536 TC)

 - Venom 2 - 13,768 (2,381)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346)

 - The Flash - 14,296 (2,440)

 

Ruby Gillman - 5,781 (1,526 TC)

 - Paws of Fury - 5,351 (1,755)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Sound of Freedom - 4,890 (1,406 TC)

Joy Ride 7/5 EA - 1,628 (1,462 TC)

Joy Ride - 4,925 (1,506 TC)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,231 (1,812)

 - Cocaine Bear - 4,525 (1,823)

 - Elvis - 4,418 (1,813)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Mission: Impossible 7/10 EA - 435 (400 TC)

Mission: Impossible - 13,235 (2,148 TC)

 - Indiana Jones 5 - 13,387 (2,441)

 - Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934)

 

T-5 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Oppenheimer - 5,849 (2,131 TC)

 - Nope - 7,656 (1,929)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3,573 (1,506)

[el sid]

The Blackening, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 165 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 20 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (5 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 17 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 18 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 74 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 123 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 424.

Up 134% since Wednesday. Not that bad.
Comps (I just take what I could find counted on Friday for Friday; at least The Menu isn't the worst comp IMO): The Menu (9M OW) had 466 sold tickets,
Death on the Nile (12.9M, Super Bowl weekend) had 643

and BT (30M) had 1.684 sold tickets.

Interesting, all comps point - with a little help from Juneteenth - to ca. 8-10M OW.

[M37]

24 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Indiana Jones - 13,664 (2,536 TC)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346)

$30M OW incoming …

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Would think their source was extrapolating based on other lower level animated openings (or even Minions, which would be a mistake on a number of levels), and so not adjusting for the Disney family weakness outside of bigger metro). Most updates here suggest a mid-$2M range, would be surprised if it got to $3M

Interesting. I checked their Thurs preview guess for The Little Mermaid and it was $10M+ (actual $10.3M), so I’d be very surprised if they ended up being over a million off here on Elemental.

[keysersoze123]

MI7 MTC1

Monday - 12052/53358 262035.84 217 shows

Tuesday - 16747/552025 324327.93 2698 shows

 

For now it does not scream like an uber opener. This is as of yesterday night and so almost 2 days of run. Tuesday previews makes the $ value irrelevant as I cannot pull discount ticket price. 

[Tinalera]

INDY 5

Thurs June 29 and Fri June 30 (T-14)

Vancouver and Toronto Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	18	154	3773	3927	0.0392
	Fri	3	22	184	4926	5110	0.0360
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	20	141	3747	3888	0.0362
	Fri	4	26	193	4939	5132	0.0376

 

 

GOTG 3 (T-14)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	4	21	613	3698	4311	0.1421
	Fri	4	26	527	4517	5044	0.1044
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	21	458	3708	4166	0.1099
	Fri	4	25	294	3698	3992	0.0736

 

Total seat availablity difference

	V T	V F	C T	C F
INDY	3927	5110	3888	5132
GOTG 3	4311	5044	4166	3992
diff	-384	66	-278	1140

 

Dungeons and Dragons T-14

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	13	52	2725	2777	0.0187
	Fri	3	19	80	4876	3969	0.0201
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	14	43	2738	2781	0.0154
	Fri	4	14	150	3132	3282	0.0457

 

	V T	V F	C T	C F
INDY	3927	5110	3888	5132
DND	2777	3969	2781	3282
diff	1150	1141	1107	1850

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/15/2023 at 10:37 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-7	Jax	6	9	4	77	875	8.80%
		Phx	4	8	9	47	564	8.33%
		Ral	5	10	2	24	848	2.83%
	Total		15	27	15	148	2,287	6.47%
No Feelings	T-7	Jax	5	15	4	7	1,284	0.55%
		Phx	6	18	4	11	1,722	0.64%
		Ral	6	17	5	13	1,568	0.83%
	Total		17	50	13	31	4,574	0.68%
No Feelings (EA)	T-2	Jax	2	2	0	6	134	4.48%
		Phx	1	1	2	6	71	8.45%
	Total		3	3	2	12	205	5.85%

 

Asteroid City T-7 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .897x (1.79m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.625x (2.31m)

 - The Menu - 1.495x (1.35m)

 - Violent Night - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 1.56m

 

No Hard Feelings + EA T-7 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.344x (672k)

 - Violent Night - missed

 - 80 for Brady Total - .174x (221k)

 - Lost City Total - .178x (577k)

 

Size adjusted average - 615k

 

This is getting a little out of hand.  Tomorrow I will switch to multiple posts - one for each release week.  I'm not really a fan of splitting things out into a ton of posts as it clogs up the board, but a wall of text isn't much better to look at.  Grouping by release week will allow for quoted threads to have a start/end instead of being one long string that lasts for years.  I would have done it today but I'm already 3.5 hours in and need to call it 😬

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-6	Jax	6	9	17	94	875	10.74%
		Phx	4	8	6	53	564	9.40%
		Ral	5	10	9	33	848	3.89%
	Total		15	27	32	180	2,287	7.87%
No Feelings	T-6	Jax	5	15	2	9	1,284	0.70%
		Phx	6	18	9	20	1,722	1.16%
		Ral	6	17	5	18	1,568	1.15%
	Total		17	50	16	47	4,574	1.03%
No Feelings (EA)	T-1	Jax	2	2	10	16	134	11.94%
		Phx	1	1	0	6	71	8.45%
	Total		3	3	10	22	205	10.73%

 

Asteroid City T-6 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.104x (2.21m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.91x (1.96m)

 - The Menu - missed

 - Violent Night - missed

 - Last Night in Soho - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 2.23m.  Another really good day for Asteroids!  I don't have any EA in my regions, but that should help elsewhere too.  Could be a breakout.

 

No Hard Feelings + EA T-6 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.5x (750k)

 - Violent Night - missed

 - 80 for Brady Total - .221x (281k)

 - Lost City Total - .25x (813k)

 

Size adjusted average - 695k

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/15/2023 at 10:37 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-14	Jax	6	64	6	249	10,205	2.44%
		Phx	6	43	12	167	8,309	2.01%
		Ral	8	53	2	262	7,972	3.29%
	Total		20	160	20	678	26,486	2.56%

 

Indiana Jones T-14 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .318x (5.4m)

 - F9 - 1.189x (8.45m)

 - JW3 - .342x (6.05m)

 - NTTD - 1.76x (9.16m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .395x (5.81m)

 - John Wick 4 - .94x (8.37m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.988x (8.25m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.71m

 

This is getting a little out of hand.  Tomorrow I will switch to multiple posts - one for each release week.  I'm not really a fan of splitting things out into a ton of posts as it clogs up the board, but a wall of text isn't much better to look at.  Grouping by release week will allow for quoted threads to have a start/end instead of being one long string that lasts for years.  I would have done it today but I'm already 3.5 hours in and need to call it 😬

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-13	Jax	6	64	23	272	10,205	2.67%
		Phx	6	43	5	172	8,309	2.07%
		Ral	8	53	10	272	7,972	3.41%
	Total		20	160	38	716	26,486	2.70%
Ruby Gillman	T-13	Jax	5	19	1	1	2,145	0.05%
		Phx	5	20	4	4	1,940	0.21%
		Ral	7	27	10	10	2,563	0.39%
	Total		17	66	15	15	6,648	0.23%

 

Ruby Gillman T-13 comps

 - Bad Guys - .789x (908k)

 - Super Pets - .536x (1.18m)

 

Size adjusted average - 774k.  Not uncommon for smaller animated movies to have very limited sales this far out. 

 

Indiana Jones T-13 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .315x (5.36m)

 - F9 - 1.119x (7.94m)

 - JW3 - .337x (5.96m)

 - NTTD - 1.746x (9.08m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .385x (5.66m)

 - John Wick 4 - .901x (8.02m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 7.83m