The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[abracadabra1998]

11 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

 

Indy T-6

NTTD: 7.30M

GA: 9.93M

JWD: 7.64M

JW4: 10.33M

Flash: 7.77M

TLM: 8.90M

Dropping against all comps is… not good. We shall see how it does the final week

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Dropping against all comps is… not good. We shall see how it does the final week

Still think there is potential for  strong walkups over the course of the extended holiday weekend as long as WOM is at least decent with the Core audience.  Dont see a Flash crash and burn but who knows. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Most likely OW scenario at this point is $7-9M previews and 6-7x multiplier. Not sure where WOM will land but let's put the legs at 2.3-2.7x OW....

Hmm. Gives us a rather bleak DOM number no matter how it spins.... 

[emoviefan]

All I care about right now is whether I enjoy the movie.  Its the final movie so it's not like it kills a franchise . Disney will lose a lot of money on this. That's their problem to deal with. 

[AJG]

59 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

All I care about right now is whether I enjoy the movie.  Its the final movie so it's not like it kills a franchise . Disney will lose a lot of money on this. That's their problem to deal with. 

I might be wrong with this but I feel as if there’s only been two movies this summer that are guaranteed not to lose money. We still have to wait for Barrie and Oppenheimer.

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/22/2023 at 8:48 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Numbers are from the last four days, next update for all these on Sunday.

 

Indiana Jones (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	76	76	689	12986	5.31

 

Ruby Gillman (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	30	3	9	2915	0.31

 

Insidious: The Red Door (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 10 theaters	23	11	11	2038	0.54

 

Really low first day of sales. I have some horror numbers from when I was tracking stuff last year (Smile, Barbarian, The Invitation, Beast, although they're all closer to the release date), so I'll finally have some comps to make these numbers mean something.

 

Barbie (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-27	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 11 theaters	41	179	179	5948	3.01
Wednesday EA: 3 theaters	3	432	432	555	77.84
TOTALS:	44	611	611	6503	9.4

 

Oppenheimer (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	36	64	656	6656	9.86

 

The Barbie Wednesday EA numbers are just stupid lol, like everyone else has been seeing. When you combine them with the Thursday numbers they're almost matching Oppenheimer's total sold.

Twin Cities Previews:

 

My Asteroid City and NHF numbers got me thinking about my inner-city bias as a resident of Minneapolis, so I spent some time today adding more theaters that better represent the twin cities metro as a whole. I think it'll make my sample more representative of a Midwest metro. Every "New" section today will therefore be N/A.

 

Indiana Jones (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	79	N/A	993	13621	7.29

 

Ruby Gillman (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	32	N/A	23	3073	0.75

 

Will update these daily until release on Thursday.

 

Insidious: Red Door (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	36	N/A	35	4682	0.75

 

Joy Ride (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	48	N/A	25	4219	0.59
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	N/A	22	1387	1.59
TOTALS:	62	N/A	47	5606	0.84

 

Barbie (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	64	N/A	396	10062	3.94
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	N/A	658	1221	53.89
TOTALS:	70	N/A	1054	11283	9.34

 

Extremely frontloaded with previews so far, but its total is already more than Oppy.

 

Oppenheimer (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	52	N/A	834	9415	8.86

 

 

 

[emoviefan]

32 minutes ago, AJG said:

I might be wrong with this but I feel as if there’s only been two movies this summer that are guaranteed not to lose money. We still have to wait for Barrie and Oppenheimer.

Maybe. That's on the studio's for spending the money. In their defense though a lot of it is on Covid related stuff. Indy and MI were espically due to that. Also I think MI will make money even it underperforms dpmestic WW will pick up the slack.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 hour ago, AJG said:

I might be wrong with this but I feel as if there’s only been two movies this summer that are guaranteed not to lose money. We still have to wait for Barrie and Oppenheimer.

Boogeyman maybe too, no? Figure that'll eventually make enough WW to not lose money. Budget was 30M I think. It's at 60M WW and should have maybe another 10M+ in the tank DOM. Not sure it'll make any more OS though. 

[Goldenhour36]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Boogeyman maybe too, no? Figure that'll eventually make enough WW to not lose money. Budget was 30M I think. It's at 60M WW and should have maybe another 10M+ in the tank DOM. Not sure it'll make any more OS though. 

 

I think that movie spent a decent amount on marketing, so its still in the red

[Tinalera]

Just a small heads up, if it interests anyone.

 

This upcoming weekend is Canada weekend, so there (might?) be a little higher final number for Indy 5. Though looking right now from what Ive been posting, doesnt seem to be a massive demand for Pre-sales. For Canada this might indeed be more walkup because of the weekend.

 

Barbie numbers are surprising me a bit for a movie almost a month out-sales percentage between 3-7 isnt too shabby at all in Canada. Might be its in the comedy vein and there hasn't been alot of that so far this year. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/24/2023 at 3:09 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
59	168	9738	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(2.100x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$2.3M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY

 

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
59	184	9738	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-11

 

(2.217x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$2.4M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/24/2023 at 6:27 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
78	1061	13845	7.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

43

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
78	1071	13845	7.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/24/2023 at 6:30 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-17

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	974	33846	2.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

*1 showing removed 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	548	2148	25.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 29 sold / 291 seats  (+0)

MTC2 = 31 sold / 114 seats  (+2)

 

COMPS

T-17

 

(0.832x) of RoTB

$7.3M TUES

 

(0.528x) of INDY 5

$???

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	997	33846	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	548	2148	25.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 29 sold / 291 seats  (+0)

MTC2 = 31 sold / 114 seats  (+0)

 

COMPS

T-16

 

(0.878x) of RoTB

$7.4M TUES

 

(0.534x) of INDY 5

$???

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/24/2023 at 6:29 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-26

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	1381	22198	6.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

51

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1171	1747	67.0%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

4

 

 

COMPS

T-26

*Excludes any EA

 

(1.556x) of RoTB

~$13.7M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	1573	22198	7.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

192

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1208	1747	69.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

4

 

 

COMPS

T-25

*Excludes any EA

 

(1.725x) of RoTB

~$15.2M THUR Previews

 

The pace is amazing. This probably gets close to $100M OW

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/24/2023 at 6:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN

 

THURSDAY

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
77	116	11728	0.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-5

(0.159x) of ELEMENTAL

~$380K THUR Previews

 

This is so dead. Maybe a $4M OW 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN

 

THURSDAY

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
77	121	11728	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-4

(0.149x) of ELEMENTAL

~$360K THUR Previews

 

No sign of life. This feels DOA 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/24/2023 at 6:23 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
186	2518	37839	6.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

88

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.778x) of THE FLASH

~$7.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.309x) of FAST X

~$9.8M THUR Previews

 

(0.693x) of TLM

~$7.1M THUR Previews

 

Still trending downwards 

 

COMPS AVG : $8.1M

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
186	2617	37839	6.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

99

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.780x) of THE FLASH

~$7.5M THUR Previews

 

(1.298x) of FAST X

~$9.7M THUR Previews

 

(0.684x) of TLM

~$7.0M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG : $8.1M

[Bob Train]

What's the IM looking like for Indy? JWD did over 8x last year. Or is Indy expected to be more frontloaded.

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, Bob Train said:

What's the IM looking like for Indy? JWD did over 8x last year. Or is Indy expected to be more frontloaded.

I’m thinking 7x off $6.8-7.2M previews, so around $47-50M OW

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
119	1573	22198	7.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

192

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1208	1747	69.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

37

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

4

 

 

COMPS

T-25

*Excludes any EA

 

(1.725x) of RoTB

~$15.2M THUR Previews

 

The pace is amazing. This probably gets close to $100M OW

Reddit is taking this post a bit out of context

 

FWIW I'm more at $90M rn (still not at $100M) with a big THUR and weaker IM than typical 

 

Something like $14M previews 6.5-7x IM feels possible if pace sustains 

[GOGODanca]

(D-4) Ruby Gilman: 37 tickets sold/+8 YD

 

Comp: 0.211x Elemental = $507k

 

(D-4) Indiana Jones: 637 tickets sold/+53 yd

 

(D-11) Insidious 5: 87 tickets sold/+6 YD

 

(D-15) EA MI7: 376 tickets sold/+4 YD

(D-16) PV MI7: 485 tickets sold/+14 YD

 

(D-24) EA Barbie: 456 tickets sold/+23 YD

(D-25) PV Barbie: 281 tickets sold/+1 YD

 

(D-25) Oppenheimer: 724 tickets sold/+32 YD