The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, XXR 2099 said:

 

If these bear out, that maligned Deadline number may end up being high....

 

I personally don't hold a great deal of weight in the comps listed, FWIW.  Just not sure there are better comps out there for it. :--/

 

(like I said, gonna see what other trackers are using and check them out as well)

 

One note, however.  DC for whatever reason, tends to underperform in Sacramento compared to other CBM properties.  On the other hand, maybe I do have enough pure DC comps to counteract that trend — at least at final bell.

 

[keysersoze123]

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 18402/35697 365979.30 178 shows

Previews - 33001/627076 622275.55 3359 shows

Friday - 25350/848328 466429.16 4321 shows

 

less than 3 days of data. So its definitely amping up. 

 

On 5/31/2023 at 8:49 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 16181/35850 322802.51 179 shows +1592

Previews - 27392/626484 519755.72 3353 shows +2961

Friday - 20138/848252 372407.68 4320 shows +2738

 

2 days and most of key hours of presales today. I think its definitely amping up as we are approaching the final week. Definitely think  50M OW at this point looks possible. Let us see how things go.  

 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/1/2023 at 1:51 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer Previews MTC1 - 6158/116302 134299.50 403 shows

 

They did add few more shows compared to morning but so far its minimal until next week when they open it all. Plus opening along side Barbie means there will be scramble for screens as we are already seeing. 

Oppenheimer Previews MTC1 - 13426/118605 282747.84 411 shows

 

Still chugging along. This would be hard movie to do comps for sure. Selling so many tickets after opening day shows its still discovering its audience. I definitely believe this will open > 50m OW. @Porthos you should keep an eye on it for sure. Not daily or full blown comps but just similar to what you are doing for Transformers. 

[Rageofthegods]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer Previews MTC1 - 13426/118605 282747.84 411 shows

 

Still chugging along. This would be hard movie to do comps for sure. Selling so many tickets after opening day shows its still discovering its audience. I definitely believe this will open > 50m OW. @Porthos you should keep an eye on it for sure. Not daily or full blown comps but just similar to what you are doing for Transformers. 

The three hour biopic opening on-par or above Dunkirk would be pretty fantastic.

[misterpepp]

On 6/1/2023 at 1:46 AM, datpepper said:

There's a No Hard Feelings early access show on June 10, with tickets going on sale for it on June 5. General tix may also go on sale on this date, but not yet certain.

Seems like general tix sales start on June 12.

[joselowe]

Do we know when Barbie tickets are going on sale?

[keysersoze123]

10 minutes ago, Rageofthegods said:

The three hour biopic opening on-par or above Dunkirk would be pretty fantastic.

Why? Manhattan project is way more relatable to domestic audience than a rescue of british soldiers. Plus the ensemble cast this movie has makes it way bigger than anything Dunkirk had. 

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, Rageofthegods said:

The three hour biopic opening on-par or above Dunkirk would be pretty fantastic.

 

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why? Manhattan project is way more relatable to domestic audience than a rescue of british soldiers. Plus the ensemble cast this movie has makes it way bigger than anything Dunkirk had. 

Yeh I think it would be easy for Oppenheimer to out-open Dunkirk. 

[Mulder]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Why? Manhattan project is way more relatable to domestic audience than a rescue of british soldiers. Plus the ensemble cast this movie has makes it way bigger than anything Dunkirk had. 

One of these is way more exciting as a movie to the general audience. Hint: It's the conventional War Movie

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Shawn/Mods. Are we switching to new thread today?

Gonna try, but will use a placeholder post if I need to split it later when I'm home.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

One of these is way more exciting as a movie to the general audience. Hint: It's the conventional War Movie

Movie is made as a thriller than a plodding drama. It will play well. American Prometheus is brilliantly written book. Its not difficult to make an engaging movie out of this. As I said Ensemble also helps.

https://www.syfy.com/syfy-wire/oppenheimer-star-says-movie-is-thriller-disguised-as-biopic

 

Anyway this is tracking thread and early presales and pace after opening day indicates this is the movie of the summer for adults who are tired of conventional big budget action movies/SH movies. 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

 

 early presales and pace after opening day indicates this is the movie of the summer for adults who are tired of conventional big budget action movies/SH movies. 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Maggie said:

I am excited for MI7 for sure. But after all its still MI SEVEN

[JpTransformers]

57 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformadores MTC1

Quarta - 18402/35697 365979.30 178 shows

Prévias - 33001/627076 622275.55 3359 shows

Sexta - 25350/848328 466429.16 4321 shows

 

menos de 3 dias de dados. Então está definitivamente aumentando. 

 

 

Considerable jumps, 50m can be in sight?

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Movie is made as a thriller than a plodding drama. It will play well. American Prometheus is brilliantly written book. Its not difficult to make an engaging movie out of this. As I said Ensemble also helps.

https://www.syfy.com/syfy-wire/oppenheimer-star-says-movie-is-thriller-disguised-as-biopic

 

Anyway this is tracking thread and early presales and pace after opening day indicates this is the movie of the summer for adults who are tired of conventional big budget action movies/SH movies. 

Dude I never said it wasn't, I'm just saying why it's impressive that the film is attracting people to the same degree as Dunkirk, a much more conventionally exciting film, is. You can try to like explain how Oppenheimer is going to be good, I'm excited for it too, but the trailers are much more 'drama' than anything action related the way Dunkirk's were.

[upriser7]

I hope Barbie tickets go on sale soon. I am quite excited to see tracking for Barbie once after the pre-sales start

[Porthos]

59 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer Previews MTC1 - 13426/118605 282747.84 411 shows

 

Still chugging along. This would be hard movie to do comps for sure. Selling so many tickets after opening day shows its still discovering its audience. I definitely believe this will open > 50m OW. @Porthos you should keep an eye on it for sure. Not daily or full blown comps but just similar to what you are doing for Transformers. 

 

Checked it last night (sold 48 tickets) am already planning on a Day 3 update when I have like-for-like comps against NTTD (as I was missing its EA showtimes for the first couple of days).

[keysersoze123]

Just now, upriser7 said:

I hope Barbie tickets go on sale soon. I am quite excited to see tracking for Barbie once after the pre-sales start

WB generally goes for 3 and half or at best 4 and half weeks of presales. So Earliest I am expecting in week of 6/19 or the following week. I hope it starts as early as possible. Just would make it easy planning with B+O plus MI7 in 2nd weekend. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

I hope Barbie tickets go on sale soon. I am quite excited to see tracking for Barbie once after the pre-sales start

 

I think in terms of how interested everyone is in seeing what presales look like, Barbie is at the top for almost everyone. Some because they expect fireworks, others because they expect duds. 

[GOGODanca]

$50m OW would be surprising for Oppenheimer considering how much older audiences have been lost post COVID but hope it happens