The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ThomasNicole]

I agree Elemental sales doesn’t look bad, and now that the movie screened for more people, i was reading the reactions and i think the complains maybe can help the movie commercially. 
 

Reception is looking obviously way better than at Cannes so it should ended up decent on RT etc, but what’s making it be in the low-end for Pixar reception is the movie being apparently too simple, too safe, too straightforward. 
 

Of course for critics i can see why this can be perceived as a downgrade, but maybe for families being just a simple fun time instead of an intricate metaphor can be helpful for it. 
 

Let’s see the audience reception before, but i wouldn’t be surprised as well with 3.5m-ish previews and 14x IM for ~50M OW if everything goes right.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

I think it’s important to clarify what we mean by “great walkups” because terms like that tend to lead people to believe something that’s not accurate. So BOT Think Tank, what entails a film as having “great walkups”? 

[WrathOfHan]

How are Oppenheimer sales looking now that standard shows are up?

[M37]

20 minutes ago, Relevation said:

I agree with your projected preview range, but Minions had a 10x internal multi despite being a franchise film and having the Gentleminions trend surging sales right at the end. I feel like this should result in Elemental being less preview heavy in comparison. Obviously it won’t be on the level of Inside Out and the Bad Guys both at 20x+ but I honestly think it I could be like 14x potentially? That gives me a… weirdly high weekend of $42M to $56M. Lemme know if I’m off-base here but I just think it’ll be really walk-up heavy even more so than the average animated family sequel.

Minions also had a holiday inflated Fri & Sun to help lift its IM, and Lightyear and Super Pets also finished right in that 10x range last summer. I could see 11/11.5x (SP 10.5x + FD bump), but not too much above that

[keysersoze123]

On 6/3/2023 at 4:32 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Elemental MTC1

Previews - 5055/298801 80434.73 2125 shows +1679

Friday - 5017/481202 74379.37 3273 shows +1770

 

This is 8 days of Presales from the last update  

Elemental MTC1

Previews - 7830/301099 124747.08 2145 shows +2775

Friday - 8916/482205 130981.32 3282 shows +3899

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, XXR 2099 said:

I think it’s important to clarify what we mean by “great walkups” because terms like that tend to lead people to believe something that’s not accurate. So BOT Think Tank, what entails a film as having “great walkups”? 

A high portion of a days eventual total sales being sold on the same day

[M37]

12 minutes ago, XXR 2099 said:

I think it’s important to clarify what we mean by “great walkups” because terms like that tend to lead people to believe something that’s not accurate. So BOT Think Tank, what entails a film as having “great walkups”? 

I think you can guess how I’m going to answer … 

 

By growth rate, the % increase in total sales from T-1 to T-0/F (and perhaps even in comparison of overall growth rate leading up to T-1)
 

(might do a quick write up/breakdown on this tomorrow if I feel like it)

[keysersoze123]

42 minutes ago, Relevation said:

I agree with your projected preview range, but Minions had a 10x internal multi despite being a franchise film and having the Gentleminions trend surging sales right at the end. I feel like this should result in Elemental being less preview heavy in comparison. Obviously it won’t be on the level of Inside Out and the Bad Guys both at 20x+ but I honestly think it I could be like 14x potentially? That gives me a… weirdly high weekend of $42M to $56M. Lemme know if I’m off-base here but I just think it’ll be really walk-up heavy even more so than the average animated family sequel.

[GOGODanca]

Oppenheimer (D-41):

 

387 tickets sold across 38 showtimes at 10 AMC's (9/387 are from standard shows)

 

+39 tickets sold in 7 holdover locations from yesterday

Edited June 9, 2023 by GOGODanca

[Krissykins]

53 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Well done with your spot on prediction! 

[excel1]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Shazam is likely a poor comp, with fans checked out, playing almost entirely to GA, much higher growth rate down the stretch. Black Adam, while a DC film, was just as much a Rock action vehicle, which is going to play very well in this tracking sample 

 

Can’t just cherry pick the comps you like and ignore the ones you don’t … at minimum you average them, and in this case would I lean more towards the ATSV range, closer to ~$11M, but with some hope it ends up higher. Just not at $16M

 

Nobody is cherry picking they're talking about how heavily certain comps are weighed. Totally reasonable. If anything, you are cherry picking "Oh, well, BA had The Rock, who is walk up friendly". "oh, Shazam was a weird comic book, it was overtly walk up friendly".

 

Remember with BLACK ADAM that we didn't know the film sucked up a few days before release. Walk-up business was hurt in the final days relative to what it could have been as word spread that it was no good. We can have total faith in this dynamic. Flash seems to have opposite type of WOM and a weekend known for strong IMs.

 

We will of course see what happens but those saying Flashes going to come in in the same ball park as Transformers and Black Adam just sounds beyond bizarre. You can toss presales numbers all you want but the condition points to trends that you seem tot be downplaying significantly. 

 

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/9/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
6/16/2023	Asteroid City (Limited)					Focus Features
6/16/2023	The Blackening	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$20,000,000 – $43,000,000		Lionsgate
6/16/2023	Elemental	$31,000,000 – $41,000,000		$98,000,000 – $167,000,000		Disney / Pixar
6/16/2023	The Flash	$72,000,000 – $105,000,000	-20%	$176,000,000 – $282,000,000	-20%	Warner Bros. Pictures
6/23/2023	Asteroid City (Expansion)					Focus Features
6/23/2023	No Hard Feelings	$14,000,000 – $22,000,000		$50,000,000 – $76,000,000		Sony Pictures
6/23/2023	Past Lives (Wide Expansion)					A24
6/30/2023	Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	$76,000,000 – $105,000,000	-17%	$211,000,000 – $359,000,000	-17%	Disney / Lucasfilm
6/30/2023	Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000		$38,000,000 – $66,000,000		Universal / DreamWorks Animation
7/7/2023	Insidious: The Red Door	$25,000,000 – $33,000,000		$56,000,000 – $76,000,000		Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
7/7/2023	Joy Ride	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000		$40,000,000 – $64,000,000		Lionsgate

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-insidious-the-red-door-and-joy-ride/

 

Don't think the entire chart was posted.

 

I think its odd the predicted finals for Indiana and flash are so different given that we know the flash has been a better reception and seemingly less competition. 

Edited June 9, 2023 by excel1

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Nobody is cherry picking they're talking about how heavily certain comps are weighed. Totally reasonable. If anything, you are cherry picking "Oh, well, BA had The Rock, who is walk up friendly". "oh, Shazam was a weird comic book, it was overtly walk up friendly".

 

Remember with BLACK ADAM that we didn't know the film sucked up a few days before release. Walk-up business was hurt in the final days relative to what it could have been as word spread that it was no good. We can have total faith in this dynamic. Flash seems to have opposite type of WOM and a weekend known for strong IMs.

 

We will of course see what happens but those saying Flashes going to come in in the same ball park as Transformers and Black Adam just sounds beyond bizarre. You can toss presales numbers all you want but the condition points to trends that you seem tot be downplaying significantly. 

The trend is that it has been dropping against Black Adam lol. The BA comp being cited as evidence of this having a preview of 16m was in 23m after day 1 of sales! The Shazam comp was 31m! It will continue to drop as we enter the final week. You can't just take comp values literally like that. 

Edited June 9, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

43 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Let’s see the audience reception before, but i wouldn’t be surprised as well with 3.5m-ish previews and 14x IM for ~50M OW if everything goes right.

 

I am expecting Elemental winning next weekend club soon :-)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/2/2023 at 10:35 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Spider-Verse	3,484	137,675		121,925		15,750	5,416	0
Little Mermaid	3,427	80,200		67,349		12,851	21	10,903
Boogeyman	2,789	48,156		48,123		33	0	0
Fast X	2,844	35,324		35,231		93	0	0
Guardians Vol. 3	2,901	34,567		33,254		1,313	0	1,273
Mario Bros	1,953	24,847		24,225		622	0	592
About My Father	2,149	22,404		22,395		9	0	0
The Machine	2,122	21,646		21,640		6	0	0
Kandahar	1,412	7,625		7,611		14	0	0
You Hurt My Feelings	808	5,380		5,374		6	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

 

First showtimes run since... 3/10.  Hopefully somewhat helpful still.

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Spider-Verse 2 - 137,675 (3,484 TC)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273)

 - Shang-Chi - 133,770 (3,523)

 - Black Adam - 138,408 (3,499)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418)

 - Lightyear - 154,652 (3,392)

 - Minions 2 - 152,458 (3,602)

 

Not getting the showtimes that the other big animated movies received mainly due to the lower projections. I don't think there is any reason to worry about capacity issues though.

 

The Boogeyman - 48,156 (2,789 TC)

 - The Forever Purge - 46,917 (2,738)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482)

 - Firestarter - 48,840 (2,998)

 - Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659)

 - The Menu - 45,234 (2,830)

 

Pretty good company for the Boogeyman.  Seems to be a standard horror release.

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

Transformers (6/7 EA) - 639 (605 TC)

Transformers - 72,589 (2,647 TC)

 - Eternals - 71,800 (2,852)

 - No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910)

 - Shazam 2 - 64,772 (2,727)

 - Morbius - 72,706 (2,812)

 - Black Adam - 78,913 (2,901)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtime Comps

The Flash (6/12 EA) - 25 (25 TC)

The Flash - 14,296 (2,440)

 - Venom 2 - 13,768 (2,381)

 - Shazam 2 - 11,334 (2,346)

 

Elemental - 10,493 (2,338 TC)

 - NTTD - 10,513 (2,492)

 - Ghostbusters - 9,550 (2,316)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 11,617 (2,405)

 

The Blackening (6/14 EA) - 456 (434 TC)

The Blackening - 1,870 (846 TC)

 - House of Gucci - 2,045 (1,402)

 - The 355 - 1,846 (1,191)

 - X - 1,829 (1,297)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Indiana Jones - 13,387 (2,441 TC)

 - Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934)

 - Top Gun - 8,786 (822)

 - JW: Dominion - 18,957 (2,593)

 

Not many comps in this range.

 

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Transformers 6	3,183	119,071		86,622		32,449	5,045	20,891
Spider-Verse	3,552	98,945	-12.51%	95,642	876.44	3,303	26	0
Little Mermaid	3,543	60,112	-25.05%	53,972	516.03	6,140	0	6,049
The Boogeyman	2,779	38,320	-11.41%	38,290	256.59	30	0	0
Guardians Vol. 3	2,623	29,827	-13.71%	29,168	308.91	659	0	621
Fast X	2,370	27,438	-22.32%	27,391	271.74	47	0	0
Super Mario Bros	1,460	15,716	-36.75%	15,451	135.58	265	0	247
About My Father	872	7,070	-68.44%	7,070	91.85	0	0	0
The Machine	826	4,514	-79.15%	4,514	79.44	0	0	0

 

US Showtime Report Sample*

*Not all theaters are accounted for

 

OW Showtimes Comps

Transformers - 119,071 (3,183 TC)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436)

 - Ghostbusters - 117,504 (3,243)

 - Halloween Ends - 123,861 (3,298)

 

T-1 Week Showtime Comps

The Flash (6/12 EA) - 25 (25 TC)

The Flash - 82,414 (2,823)

 - Venom 2 - 81,718 (2,807)

 - Black Adam - 78,913 (2,901)

 

Elemental - 59,677 (2,622 TC)

 - NTTD - 63,789 (2,910)

 - Ghostbusters - 63,866 (2,826)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 64,819 (2,899)

 

The Blackening (6/14 EA) - 819 (762 TC)

The Blackening - 19,750 (1,221 TC)

 - House of Gucci - 19,223 (1,835)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627)

 - X - 19,249 (1,746)

 - Magic Mike's Last Dance - 19,139 (1,224)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Indiana Jones - 13,492 (2,485 TC)

 - Venom 2 - 12,285 (1,978)

 - Shazam 2 - 10,850 (2,193)

 - Minions 2 - 16,936 (2,268)

 

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Sound of Freedom - 4,653 (1,339 TC)

Joy Ride - 3,854 (1,155 TC)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3,948 (1,668)

 - M3GAN - 3,770 (1,545)

 

T-5 Week Previews Showtime Comps

Oppenheimer - 5,419 (1,954 TC)

 - Nope - 7,656 (1,929)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 3,573 (1,506)

[killbill]

7 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

The trend is that it has been dropping against Black Adam lol. The BA comp being cited as evidence of this having a preview of 16m was in 23m after day 1 of sales! The Shazam comp was 31m! It will continue to drop as we enter the final week. You can't just take comp values literally like that. 

But Transformers and Fast X and quite frankly most movies accelerate in its premiere week. Why do you think Flash will not do the same ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, killbill said:

But Transformers and Fast X and quite frankly most movies accelerate in its premiere week. Why do you think Flash will not do the same ?

It will obviously accelerate, that doesn't mean the comp values will increase because the movies being comped to also accelerated. 

[ThomasNicole]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I am expecting Elemental winning next weekend club soon 🙂

Oh i wish… the weekend thread would be legendary 

 

Sadly we all know the more likely scenario is Elemental doing boring 35-40M and Flash also boring 75-85M

[raegr]

Look I want flash to do well and its my most anticipated movie this year but i think the writing is on the wall. When I saw Guardians again, the audience reacted very positively to The Marvels trailer and another movie (can't remember what it was), but they were completely silent regarding The Flash. I opened up a club that said it could gross over BvS' opening weekend, but after decent reception and weak presales, that definitely is not happening. Pacing similarly to and falling behind BA and Venom is also a VERY bad sign for the internal multiplier. I can't deny it anymore, I don't think this will cross 100M, I hope it does, but as of right now it's trending in the 70-75M range. It's very possible for the previews to fall under 10M. The best thing for the DCU right now is for Flash to underperform so that WB knows to never make the same mistakes again and LEARN from the past. This will make them want to invest in better stories and rebuild goodwill from the general public. If they are rewarded for a chaotic past 10 years, they're not going to want to change. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Pace has been trending down, lagging behind similar titles, but agree its too soon to go full doom and gloom. But ask me again a T-4 though ... (Do agree on IM not sinking too low, for a few reasons)

 

However, older audiences in general buy tickets earlier than their younger counterparts, lower walk-up rate (look at JW4 final few days shading below pace of similar titles for example), so don't think Keaton's presence is going to help much

Other factor is having a big release every week is you dont get the limelight early. Now that Transformers is out, I expect focus to shift to Flash. We will know for sure by Monday. 

[YM!]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Minions also had a holiday inflated Fri & Sun to help lift its IM, and Lightyear and Super Pets also finished right in that 10x range last summer. I could see 11/11.5x (SP 10.5x + FD bump), but not too much above that

In fairness both Lightyear and Pets had a fanbase of some sort even though they’re family properties in Toy Story and DC. I can see anywhere from 9.5x-12x being Elemental’s multiplier.

Edited June 9, 2023 by YM!