The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Sadly we all know the more likely scenario is Elemental doing boring 35-40M and Flash also boring 75-85M

If that is your boring flash value you can probably enjoy an exciting weekend 😛   
 

Elemental will be interesting I feel like with such small original animated property even the t-7 cume and pace don’t provide all that much info on where it will go. I could imagine anything from like 2*11 to 4*13 or something. 

[21C]

2 hours ago, YSLDC said:

Maybe after Transformers opening weekend, the market will be clear, WB will start heavy marketing, and Flash will start accelerating. Let's hope

They've been heavy marketing The Flash for over a month now.  

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, YSLDC said:

Maybe after Transformers opening weekend, the market will be clear, WB will start heavy marketing, and Flash will start accelerating. Let's hope

 

Flash has had a very heavy marketing campaign, with a big emphasis on TV spots during things like NBA playoffs. I can't imagine they do much more.

 

But they need something to jump start sales. I wouldn't be surprised if they release a lot more full clips of the movie on social media.

 

This is what GOTG3 did, and, it seemed to help. Let the movie do the talking. If they release a few clips over the weekend, maybe that starts turning the tide. Otherwise, there's no real trigger events left.

[21C]

4 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

 

This is what GOTG3 did, and, it seemed to help. Let the movie do the talking. If they release a few clips over the weekend, maybe that starts turning the tide. Otherwise, there's no real trigger events left.

Didn't GOTG3 start accelerating with the reviews as well though? 

[keysersoze123]

Normally Zack updates Flash but just wanted to provide one checkpoint as we are just into final week of Flash.

 

Flash MTC1
Early shows - 3696/4478 86196.54 13 shows
Previews -  71450/544401 1344391.06 2816 shows +3655
Friday - 42288/810835 794916.86 4106 shows

 

 

Let us see where things are on Monday. 
 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Something off with ATSV tickets sold? It cannot be that high for T-7

 

Copy-n-paste error (or more accurately copy-n-paste-formula-results error).  Comp was correct but the tickets sold that day was 263.  Fixing presently.

[RamblinRed]

1 hour ago, killbill said:

But Transformers and Fast X and quite frankly most movies accelerate in its premiere week. Why do you think Flash will not do the same ?

I don't think that is what is being assumed by the posters here.

 

It will accelerate. The question is not will it accelerate, the question is WHAT is the pace of acceleration.

To this point its acceleration rate has been lower than the movies it is comped to.  If that continues the estimates for its opening will continue to drop. 

If it accelerates at the same pace as the comparisons then its estimates will remain flat and if it accelerates quicker than it will improve its estimates.

 

I think why many on here expect it to pace at or behind the comparisons is that is really no event left to juice that rate of acceleration. It has already listed the review embargo, many movies don't do that until the week of - so it doesn't have the same natural event to help boost its rate of growth.

 

I'm hoping it picks up this week, but it is running out of time to do so.

Unless it ends up being extremely walk-up heavy or have really strong WOM, then it will be difficult for that rate to increase enough.

The reviews were fine, but not something that provided a big boost and comments from people who have seen early previews don't count for much yet. We have to wait to see how the GA (who are largely NOT who is going to EA's/special screenings) react. Their reaction could be very different from the more fanboy types that tend to be the first to see it. 

 

We are also in a place that we haven't really been in since 2019. There are wide releases pretty much every week - which limits how many screens you can get and also limits how much time you have to find an audience.

 

[JustLurking]

I think a lot of people don't seem to grasp that for a comp to grow it doesn't just have to accelerate, it has to accelerate more than the film it is being comped to relative to current values. Something like BA does have poor reviews but Flash doesn't have a review bump left at all. If the comp has been dropping despite Flash getting reviews out early it is a fair assessment that it will continue to drop. Flash has been comped all around to films that finished strong (or in the case of shazam, were on such low numbers that they had nowhere to go but up), so making significant gains on the final stretch is pretty unlikely.

 

That doesn't mean it is a lock since statistical abnormalities exist, but it is a pretty fair assumption that if a comp keeps decreasing even while you get your catalysts out earlier, it won't just randomly increase at the end.

 

FWIW, I don't agree with the lower end numbers being thrown out still. I think it will ultimately land 70-90.

Edited June 9, 2023 by JustLurking

[cannastop]

 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, 21C said:

Didn't GOTG3 start accelerating with the reviews as well though? 

 

Yes, but they put additional marketing in motion as well. Reviews were probably the biggest trigger, but, they were pushing on numerous fronts.

[Willowra]

29 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 

Quorum is projecting opening weekend too now? Lets see what BOP project after 2 weeks.

Edited June 9, 2023 by Willowra

[Phoenix22]

The last hope they have is the red carpet with the cast on Monday and the early access screenings that day that could led up to more hype and WOM.

[Mulder]

Also have to say admittedly, while Rise of The Beasts preview number looks good on paper let's wait for the IM/Friday numbers. Since the EA shows seemed to really kind of inflate it. 7.6 isn't a bad number, but not quite as good as 8.8. Great job to everyone in this thread for predicting it right on the money though.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Normally Zack updates Flash but just wanted to provide one checkpoint as we are just into final week of Flash.

 

Flash MTC1
Early shows - 3696/4478 86196.54 13 shows
Previews -  71450/544401 1344391.06 2816 shows +3655
Friday - 42288/810835 794916.86 4106 shows

 

 

Let us see where things are on Monday. 
 

Overall number is better than other samples but the pace is very low. Probably looking at a 200k finish for about 10m (expecting it to be around 85k pure Thu by the end of Sunday). Like other samples Fri ratio is weaker than Verse so would go 10-17-19-19 for the weekend, about 65m.

[excel1]

6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Overall number is better than other samples but the pace is very low. Probably looking at a 200k finish for about 10m (expecting it to be around 85k pure Thu by the end of Sunday). Like other samples Fri ratio is weaker than Verse so would go 10-17-19-19 for the weekend, about 65m.

If your formula says that the Flash will open below Black Adam and on par with where Transformers is looking to open, your formula is...flawed.

Edited June 9, 2023 by excel1

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

11 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Overall number is better than other samples but the pace is very low. Probably looking at a 200k finish for about 10m (expecting it to be around 85k pure Thu by the end of Sunday). Like other samples Fri ratio is weaker than Verse so would go 10-17-19-19 for the weekend, about 65m.

Does the 10M include early showing numbers or just Thursday?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, excel1 said:

If your formula says that the Flash will open below Black Adam and on par with where Transformers is looking to open, your formula is...flawed.

 

You're rehashing the same point over and over. We get it. You think the Flash will open higher than is currently being predicted by this thread. No more of that. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Does the 10M include early showing numbers or just Thursday?

With, but don't think they will do a whole lot. There are too few to make a big difference.

[YSLDC]

18 minutes ago, excel1 said:

If your formula says that the Flash will open below Black Adam and on par with where Transformers is looking to open, your formula is...flawed.

 

Come on dude. I ain't happy either but they've been doing it for years and undersrand more than us.

[excel1]

11 minutes ago, XXR 2099 said:

 

You're rehashing the same point over and over. We get it. You think the Flash will open higher than is currently being predicted by this thread. No more of that. 

 

"No more of that".

 

Excuse me? Reviewing assessments as they come in ? The transformers numbers are coming in literally as we post and are being used as there basis for agreeing or dissenting. That is the purpose of this thread and form. Are you telling the other predictors to stop repeating the same conclusion each time they have updated info, too? 

 

What a strange, absurd post of yours.