The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, Greedo said:

LOL it just keeps dropping😂 I wonder if it has anyshot to open below 50 million???????

 

There's a shot but I wouldn't put it higher than 10%. If Friday comes on the low end of Jat's estimate, Saturday flat and Sunday a 15% drop from Saturday then it would hit just under $50M. The more likely scenario is something like 52-56.

[Starphanluke]

Between the B Cinemascore and rapidly falling weekend projection, Flash is going from "a little embarrassing" to a full-blown disaster. Holy shit.

 

Edit: dammit, this was supposed to be in the weekend thread.

Edited June 17, 2023 by Starphanluke

[PrinceRico]

34 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Between the B Cinemascore and rapidly falling weekend projection, Flash is going from "a little embarrassing" to a full-blown disaster. Holy shit.

Next up Indy5

[Austin]

@Into the Legion-Verse was it you pointing to a $56M OW for The Flash for like the last month lol? Might be spot on. What a disaster of a weekend for the box office.

[Cooper Legion]

18 minutes ago, Austin said:

@Into the Legion-Verse was it you pointing to a $56M OW for The Flash for like the last month lol? Might be spot on. What a disaster of a weekend for the box office.

I didn't quite pull the trigger on sub 10 and sub 6x midpoints until the final week but I have been hammering away at stuff in the 50-65 zone being very possible for about a month yeah (since first day of PS).

[titanic2187]

8 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

No Hard Feelings

 

THURSDAY

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
38	143	4487	3.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Unofficial comp ~$800K

After Flash's incident, I can only hope for some mini-breakout from NHF to become something like Crawdads last year, so that we can offset the deficit from the Flash. 

[Porthos]

On 6/16/2023 at 1:45 AM, Porthos said:

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-35]

617/7572 [8.15% sold]   [+24 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              323/776    [+12 tickets] [52.35% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   215/3558   [+4 tickets] [34.85% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           79/3238   [+7 tickets] [12.80% of all tickets sold]

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-34]

622/7572 [8.15% sold]   [+5 tickets] [50 showings]

70mm:              325/776    [+2 tickets] [52.25% of all tickets sold]

All other PLF:   218/3558   [+3 tickets] [35.05% of all tickets sold]

Standard:           79/3238   [+0 tickets] [12.70% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/16/2023 at 1:50 AM, Porthos said:

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	23878	24369	491	2.01%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	183
Total Seats Sold Today	107

 

Day Two Comps:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	52.40		222	937		0/158	21395/22332	4.20%		1663	29.52%		9.43m
Ava 2	29.07		369	1689		0/142	19649/21338	7.92%		4494	10.93%		4.94m
Wick 4	74.73		176	657		0/84	12063/12720	5.17%		5448	9.01%		6.65m
Indy 5	101.45		62	484		0/122	18778/19262	2.51%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:     56/7967       [0.70% sold]
Matinee:    2/1687      [0.12% | 0.41% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    49/6018  [0.81% | 9.98% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]   

---

Sun:   40/457           [8.75% sold] [+8 tickets]

Mon:  237/2256       [8.39% sold] [+63 tickets]

Tue:   214/21656     [0.99% sold] [+36 tickets]

 

===========

 

So I'm still working the presentation for the Discount Tuesday situation, as frankly, it's kind of a mess locally.

 

Cinemark isn't participating at all nor is the indie TrueIMAX theater (as I expected for both).  Near as I can tell, neither is Cinema West.  Studio Movie Grill, on the other hand, is full speed ahead on all Tuesday showings with no membership required.  Fair enough.  The spanner in the works are the local Regal theaters.  Most, but not all, are indeed participating in "Regal Value Day" for folks who have a free Regal membership... i think. 

 

I say I think, because some of the theaters didn't have an option for Regal Members to opt in to buy a discounted ticket and I didn't feel like navigating the corp site and punching in my own Regal Number at those showings.  If I have time tomorrow I'll think about doing that.  But for now, I'm excluding those showtimes. 

 

Also, there's the elephant in the room that one must be a Regal member to qualify in the first place and while I reckon most folks will be, I also suspect there will be a non-zero percentage who aren't.  So take that Discount Tuesday percentage as something of a ceiling, at least locally. 

 

I will be using whatever percentage is spat out, along with all of the PLFs to figure out some sort of ad-hoc percentage to hack off the comp at final call.  But that's a ways away.  For now I'm not adjusting the comps at all, especially since I am unsure of the Sun/Mon/Tue splits.  Did make a note reminding folks about the Discount Tue wildcard however.

 

As always, play it by ear.

 

 

Mission Impossible 7: Dead Reckoning — Part One

Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	154	23842	24369	527	2.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

36

 

Day Three Comps:

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	107.33		56	491		0/135	20500/20991	2.34%		3737	14.10%		6.65m
JWD	51.02		96	1033		0/163	21792/22825	4.53%		10966	4.81%		9.18m
Ava 2	28.32		172	1861		0/142	19477/21338	8.72%		8986	5.86%		4.81m
Wick 4	72.69		68	725		0/84	11995/12720	5.70%		5448	9.67%		6.47m
Indy 5	103.54		25	509		0/122	18753/19262	2.64%		???	???		???

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of MI7's current tickets sold versus that final number.

DISCOUNT TUE NOTE:  NONE of the above comps have been adjusted for Discount Tuesday ticket sales at particpating theaters, thus the comp will almost certainly come down when sales are final.

Regal:         60/7967  [0.75% sold]
Matinee:        2/1687  [0.12% | 0.38% of all tickets sold]
Discount:    57/6018  [0.95% | 10.82% of all tickets sold]
[NOTE: Must be a Regal Member to qualify for Discount Tue at participating Regal locations]   

---

Sun:   40/457           [8.75% sold]  [+0 tickets]

Mon:  264/2256       [11.70% sold] [+27 tickets]

Tue:   223/21656     [1.03% sold]   [+9 tickets]

 

===

 

Switching to T-x comps, such as they are, starting tomorrow...

[Porthos]

On 6/16/2023 at 1:48 AM, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	128	18983	20241	1258	6.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

89

 

T-14 Comps:

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	174.00		49	723		0/135	20536/21259	3.40%		6409	19.63%		10.79m
JWD	48.48		170	2595		0/191	22777/25372	10.23%		10966	11.47%		8.73m
BA	137.94		59	912		0/146	21155/22067	4.13%		4494	27.99%		10.48m
Wick 4	109.30		64	1151		0/88	12191/13342	8.63%		5448	23.09%		9.73m
FX	120.15		99	1047		0/178	26663/27710	3.78%		4122	30.52%		9.01m
TLM	82.38		87	1527		0/154	21187/22714	6.72%		6561	19.17%		8.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     247/6084  [4.06% sold]
Matinee:    86/1728  [4.98% | 6.84% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

So I noticed literally seconds ago I had the wrong comp for NTTD (was multiplying by the wrong number in my spreadsheet).  Oops!  Fixed in this chart and I'll fix the previous day's chart in a few minutes (ETA: Annnd, fixed)

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	128	18924	20241	1317	6.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	168.85		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		3737	35.24%		10.47m
JWD	48.65		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	12.01%		8.76m
BA	135.08		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	29.31%		10.27m
Wick 4	106.99		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	24.17%		9.52m
FX	119.84		52	1099		0/178	26611/27710	3.97%		4122	31.95%		8.99m
TLM	81.10		97	1624		0/154	21095/22719	7.15%		6561	20.07%		8.35m
Flash	102.81		54	1281		0/178	23867/25148	5.09%		5327	24.72%		9.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     258/6084  [4.24% sold]
Matinee:    94/1728  [5.44% | 7.14% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Added The Flash comp, by request.

[Mulder]

39 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	128	18924	20241	1317	6.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

59

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	168.85		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		3737	35.24%		10.47m
JWD	48.65		112	2707		0/191	22665/25372	10.67%		10966	12.01%		8.76m
BA	135.08		63	975		0/146	21092/22067	4.42%		4494	29.31%		10.27m
Wick 4	106.99		80	1231		0/89	12253/13484	9.13%		5448	24.17%		9.52m
FX	119.84		52	1099		0/178	26611/27710	3.97%		4122	31.95%		8.99m
TLM	81.10		97	1624		0/154	21095/22719	7.15%		6561	20.07%		8.35m
Flash	102.81		54	1281		0/178	23867/25148	5.09%		5327	24.72%		9.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     258/6084  [4.24% sold]
Matinee:    94/1728  [5.44% | 7.14% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Added The Flash comp, by request.

Still a few weeks but a Flash-esque/bit better then Flash preview number sounds right with a stronger IM depending on WOM and if the older crowd turns up for it. 

[Maggie]

Ah, those are weak numbers for MI:DR

[JpTransformers]

 

[TwoMisfits]

For tracking, Barbie is getting 2 screens/10 showings at both my locals for presales...no PLF at the one that has it.

 

Not bad, not great.  But this is the trouble opening against another big movie - they are gonna have to share everything, which after this weekend, well, maybe they should try not to, but it might be too late...

[charlie Jatinder]

@XXRkham Asylum do the needful.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-6	Jax	6	9	17	94	875	10.74%
		Phx	4	8	6	53	564	9.40%
		Ral	5	10	9	33	848	3.89%
	Total		15	27	32	180	2,287	7.87%
No Feelings	T-6	Jax	5	15	2	9	1,284	0.70%
		Phx	6	18	9	20	1,722	1.16%
		Ral	6	17	5	18	1,568	1.15%
	Total		17	50	16	47	4,574	1.03%
No Feelings (EA)	T-1	Jax	2	2	10	16	134	11.94%
		Phx	1	1	0	6	71	8.45%
	Total		3	3	10	22	205	10.73%

 

Asteroid City T-6 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.104x (2.21m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.91x (1.96m)

 - The Menu - missed

 - Violent Night - missed

 - Last Night in Soho - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 2.23m.  Another really good day for Asteroids!  I don't have any EA in my regions, but that should help elsewhere too.  Could be a breakout.

 

No Hard Feelings + EA T-6 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.5x (750k)

 - Violent Night - missed

 - 80 for Brady Total - .221x (281k)

 - Lost City Total - .25x (813k)

 

Size adjusted average - 695k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-5	Jax	6	9	11	105	875	12.00%
		Phx	4	8	4	57	564	10.11%
		Ral	5	10	8	41	848	4.83%
	Total		15	27	23	203	2,287	8.88%
No Feelings	T-5	Jax	5	15	1	10	1,284	0.78%
		Phx	6	18	4	24	1,722	1.39%
		Ral	6	17	3	21	1,568	1.34%
	Total		17	50	8	55	4,574	1.20%
No Feelings (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	2	28	44	134	32.84%
		Phx	1	1	12	18	71	25.35%
	Total		3	3	40	62	205	30.24%

 

Asteroid City T-5 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Easter Sunday - 4.143x (2.07m)

 - The Menu - missed

 - Violent Night - 1.971x (2.17m)

 - Last Night in Soho - missed

 

 

Size adjusted average - 2.26m

 

No Hard Feelings T-5 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.122x (562k)

 - Violent Night - .534x (587k)

 - 80 for Brady - .437x (327k)

 - Lost City - .258x (646k)

 

Size adjusted average - 511k

 

Took out the EA from No Hard Feelings since it shows today... not the normal Wednesday EA so sales pattern won't match.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-13	Jax	6	64	23	272	10,205	2.67%
		Phx	6	43	5	172	8,309	2.07%
		Ral	8	53	10	272	7,972	3.41%
	Total		20	160	38	716	26,486	2.70%
Ruby Gillman	T-13	Jax	5	19	1	1	2,145	0.05%
		Phx	5	20	4	4	1,940	0.21%
		Ral	7	27	10	10	2,563	0.39%
	Total		17	66	15	15	6,648	0.23%

 

Ruby Gillman T-13 comps

 - Bad Guys - .789x (908k)

 - Super Pets - .536x (1.18m)

 

Size adjusted average - 774k.  Not uncommon for smaller animated movies to have very limited sales this far out. 

 

Indiana Jones T-13 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .315x (5.36m)

 - F9 - 1.119x (7.94m)

 - JW3 - .337x (5.96m)

 - NTTD - 1.746x (9.08m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .385x (5.66m)

 - John Wick 4 - .901x (8.02m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 7.83m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-12	Jax	6	64	4	276	10,205	2.70%
		Phx	6	43	3	175	8,309	2.11%
		Ral	8	53	22	294	7,972	3.69%
	Total		20	160	29	745	26,486	2.81%
Ruby Gillman	T-12	Jax	5	19	0	1	2,145	0.05%
		Phx	6	24	0	4	2,236	0.18%
		Ral	7	27	0	10	2,563	0.39%
	Total		18	70	0	15	6,944	0.22%

 

Ruby Gillman T-12 comps

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Super Pets - .5x (1.1m)

 

Indiana Jones T-12 comps

 - Avatar 2 - .308x (5.24m)

 - F9 - 1.06x (7.52m)

 - JW3 - .336x (5.95m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Top Gun 2 - .38x (5.6m)

 - John Wick 4 - .858x (7.64m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.795x (7.45m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.15m

[katnisscinnaplex]

19 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Sound of Freedom	T-17	Jax	5	21	181	181	1,622	11.16%
		Phx	6	35	325	325	2,511	12.94%
		Ral	6	19	190	190	2,039	9.32%
	Total		17	75	696	696	6,172	11.28%

 

Sound of Freedom T-17 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .639x (2.107m)

 

I think "I Heard the Bells" will be in the same range once I get to T-15 (it was ~350 at that point).  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Sound of Freedom	T-16	Jax	5	21	15	196	1,622	12.08%
		Phx	6	35	-1	324	2,511	12.90%
		Ral	6	19	7	197	2,039	9.66%
	Total		17	75	21	717	6,172	11.62%

 

Sound of Freedom T-17 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .648x (2.14m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-25	Jax	5	67	11	86	10,608	0.81%
		Phx	6	58	15	50	11,155	0.45%
		Ral	8	54	9	75	8,344	0.90%
	Total		19	179	35	211	30,107	0.70%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-23	Jax	3	3	28	28	418	6.70%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	363	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	10	10	111	9.01%
	Total		6	6	38	38	892	4.26%
	T-24	Jax	5	7	14	56	1,407	3.98%
		Phx	1	1	2	26	410	6.34%
		Ral	1	1	11	31	261	11.88%
	Total		7	9	27	113	2,078	5.44%

 

M:I 7 (Total) Day 2 comps

 - F9  - 1.065x (7.56m)

 - Black Widow - .476x (6.28m)

 

Not too much to go on.  Added in the Walmart+ sales today.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-24	Jax	5	67	6	92	10,608	0.87%
		Phx	6	58	8	58	11,155	0.52%
		Ral	8	54	13	88	8,344	1.05%
	Total		19	179	27	238	30,107	0.79%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-22	Jax	3	3	4	32	418	7.66%
		Phx	2	2	0	0	363	0.00%
		Ral	1	1	0	10	111	9.01%
	Total		6	6	4	42	892	4.71%
	T-23	Jax	5	7	4	60	1,407	4.26%
		Phx	1	1	5	31	410	7.56%
		Ral	1	1	0	31	261	11.88%
	Total		7	9	9	122	2,078	5.87%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-24 comps

 - JW3 Total - .207x (3.73m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.78x (6.05m)

 - Black Widow - .406x (5.36m)

 

Not many good comps this far out yet.  

[vafrow]

Milton, ON

Various updates

 

With Flash done, I've been tracking some of the other films, but nothing has been interesting enough to post, so, thought I'd just make a single post.

 

T-6 No Hard Feelings

Zero tickets sold. Only became available a few days ago, but, apparently, no one is super eager to buy tickets in my area.

 

T-13 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

 

Five tickets sold. I've been tracking since T-36, where three tickets were sold on day one, and then nothing until this mornings update to get it to five tickets. That's Canada Day weekend up here, so people will have time to catch up to it if they don't get out day one. Still, a bit disappointing to see it be so flat.

 

T-28 Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1

 

8 tickets sold. It sold on day one, and has stayed steady. I don't expect much movement until after Indiana Jones weekend.

 

As things get closer, will try and update, but, that's where things sit.

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, Maggie said:

Ah, those are weak numbers for MI:DR