The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

The first post Covid blockbusters were pretty uncertain because regional recovery was pretty uneven.

Understood, just was wondering more about the how, given that IMO F9 is the best (though not perfect, see Philly) comp for JWD (after-analysis may prove otherwise)

 

Specifically, if the secondary and lower tier markets were particularly weak, are underrepresented in tracking here, and that has largely corrected a year later, then numbers so far - particularly the elephant in the room of weak Alpha totals - may be “missing” something 

 

Or just no one cares, and there’s less money to throw at a meh movie, especially when TG2 just grabbed - and continues to - a lot of casual viewers who met their quota for the month

[keysersoze123]

32 minutes ago, M37 said:

I do have question, not just for you, but the long term trackers: Most of the comments on F9 Thursday suggest a preview of $8-$9M, but the actual was a weaker $7.1? 

 

Curious what the consensus view is on that “miss”: too many markets closed/not yet recovered so metros over-indexing, not enough comps for after times to reflect greater PS rate, or something else?

I over predicted F9 bcos MTC2 was really strong. That said there were too many unknowns. MTC3 was way below normal and Toronto was down for F9 and I dont think NY/CA were < 50% capacity if I am not wrong. I think we were lot closer for BW. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Understood, just was wondering more about the how, given that IMO F9 is the best (though not perfect, see Philly) comp for JWD (after-analysis may prove otherwise)

 

Specifically, if the secondary and lower tier markets were particularly weak, are underrepresented in tracking here, and that has largely corrected a year later, then numbers so far - particularly the elephant in the room of weak Alpha totals - may be “missing” something 

 

Or just no one cares, and there’s less money to throw at a meh movie, especially when TG2 just grabbed - and continues to - a lot of casual viewers who met their quota for the month

Another factor with F9 was that it massively overindexed in MTC2/Beta (back when we got that consistently). That skewed our view of things nationwide.

[M37]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I over predicted F9 bcos MTC2 was really strong. That said there were too many unknowns. MTC3 was way below normal and Toronto was down for F9 and I dont think NY/CA were < 50% capacity if I am not wrong. I think we were lot closer for BW. 

MTC3 had only recently reopened, so it would make sense they hadn’t clawed back a lot of market share yet 

[keysersoze123]

Lightyear (1 day of PS)

Wed - 1083/34051 24877.92 153 shows

Thu -  14286/524958 254353.10 3152 shows

 

I think its quite good. if premiere is tonight and we will have social media reactions, we will see the boost soon. i will look at this over the weekend again.

 

  

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Really early numbers. 

 

Lightyear MTC1

Wed Early Shows - 834/34066 19368.50

Thu Previews - 10661/516207 192147.77

 

Its still early as PS just started today. I think previews will not be trivial for sure. 

 

 

 

[Brainbug]

After having seen Dominion, i have 0 idea if WOM will be good enough to help it go over the projections or bad enough to make it go even lower. My audience liked it, but there are aspects of the movie where i dont know if the GA would dig it.

 

Its now completely up in the air for me. I can see it exceeding expectations for 180M+ OW or actually stumble and fall down to a 130M OW or so.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[Grebacio]

1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

How much effect can you think was due to Universal stupidly promoting Jurassic World Dominion wirh just a logo and not a name 😬😬

 

Everywhere, it's just the logo and that's it, no name no nothing.

Even in the movie they just show the logo, title is never seen.

[Porthos]

Nope showtimes are populating on Fandango, so they're still a go for tomorrow as previously reported by EC.

 

4pm previews.

 

(why a horror movie needs a month and a half long preview sale period is beyond me, but there you are)

[Grebacio]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Nope showtimes are populating on Fandango, so they're still a go for tomorrow as previously reported by EC.

 

4pm previews.

 

(why a horror movie needs a month and a half long preview sale period is beyond me, but there you are)

wonder if we will get a new trailer tomorrow too, or if Uni will wait till Black Phone

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/7/2022 at 2:29 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	JW3	PLF	32	391	3,241	6,844	47.36%	$16.25	$52,681.27
		Standard	81	649	2,929	11,075	26.45%	$11.81	$34,592.32
	JW3 Total		113	1,040	6,170	17,919	34.43%	$14.14	$87,273.59
T-3	JW3 (Fri)	PLF	60	656	4,107	12,895	31.85%	$15.48	$63,563.29
		Standard	104	590	2,569	13,607	18.88%	$11.37	$29,211.75
	JW3 (Fri) Total		164	1,246	6,676	26,502	25.19%	$13.90	$92,775.04

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	JW3	N	92	812	5,165	14,850	34.78%	$14.82	$76,533.38
		Y	21	228	1,005	3,069	32.75%	$10.69	$10,740.21
	JW3 Total		113	1,040	6,170	17,919	34.43%	$14.14	$87,273.59
T-3	JW3 (Fri)	N	82	717	4,480	13,405	33.42%	$14.97	$67,087.67
		Y	82	529	2,196	13,097	16.77%	$11.70	$25,687.37
	JW3 (Fri) Total		164	1,246	6,676	26,502	25.19%	$13.90	$92,775.04

 

JW3 Thu T-2 comp

 - DS 2 - .455x (16.385m)

 - NWH - .344x (17.23m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.198x (21.08m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.103x (23.84m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.706x (25.07m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.258x (24.28m)

 

Ramping up in a really good way!

 

JW3 Fri T-3 comps

 - NWH - .436x (31.39m)

 - Batman - 1.24x (43.5m)

 - DS2 - .612x (33.48m)

 - TG2 - 1.62x (53.01m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	JW3	PLF	32	376	3,617	6,844	52.85%	$16.18	$58,537.99
		Standard	94	715	3,644	12,050	30.24%	$11.84	$43,149.32
	JW3 Total		126	1,091	7,261	18,894	38.43%	$14.00	$101,687.31
T-2	JW3 (Fri)	PLF	60	560	4,667	12,895	36.19%	$15.39	$71,805.52
		Standard	153	1,030	3,599	19,838	18.14%	$11.30	$40,654.05
	JW3 (Fri) Total		213	1,590	8,266	32,733	25.25%	$13.61	$112,459.57

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	JW3	N	104	887	6,052	15,781	38.35%	$14.69	$88,896.56
		Y	22	204	1,209	3,113	38.84%	$10.58	$12,790.75
	JW3 Total		126	1,091	7,261	18,894	38.43%	$14.00	$101,687.31
T-2	JW3 (Fri)	N	106	915	5,395	16,450	32.80%	$14.72	$79,409.37
		Y	107	675	2,871	16,283	17.63%	$11.51	$33,050.20
	JW3 (Fri) Total		213	1,590	8,266	32,733	25.25%	$13.61	$112,459.57

 

JW3 Thu T-1 comp

 - DS 2 - missed

 - NWH - .382x (19.09m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.204x (21.2m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.12x (24.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.757x (25.83m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.319x (25.46m)

 

Continues to impress here.  Well ahead of Top Gun and Batman.  I guess San Antonio like dinos too

 

JW3 Fri T-2 comps

 - NWH - .492x (35.37m)

 - Batman - 1.28x (44.94m)

 - DS2 - .757x (41.46m)

 - TG2 - 1.685x (55.12m)

 

There were a whole lot of shows added since yesterday.  Plenty of space available now for last few days.

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	JW3	PLF	32	376	3,617	6,844	52.85%	$16.18	$58,537.99
		Standard	94	715	3,644	12,050	30.24%	$11.84	$43,149.32
	JW3 Total		126	1,091	7,261	18,894	38.43%	$14.00	$101,687.31
T-2	JW3 (Fri)	PLF	60	560	4,667	12,895	36.19%	$15.39	$71,805.52
		Standard	153	1,030	3,599	19,838	18.14%	$11.30	$40,654.05
	JW3 (Fri) Total		213	1,590	8,266	32,733	25.25%	$13.61	$112,459.57

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	JW3	N	104	887	6,052	15,781	38.35%	$14.69	$88,896.56
		Y	22	204	1,209	3,113	38.84%	$10.58	$12,790.75
	JW3 Total		126	1,091	7,261	18,894	38.43%	$14.00	$101,687.31
T-2	JW3 (Fri)	N	106	915	5,395	16,450	32.80%	$14.72	$79,409.37
		Y	107	675	2,871	16,283	17.63%	$11.51	$33,050.20
	JW3 (Fri) Total		213	1,590	8,266	32,733	25.25%	$13.61	$112,459.57

 

JW3 Thu T-1 comp

 - DS 2 - missed

 - NWH - .382x (19.09m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.204x (21.2m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.12x (24.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.757x (25.83m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.319x (25.46m)

 

Continues to impress here.  Well ahead of Top Gun and Batman.  I guess San Antonio like dinos too

 

JW3 Fri T-2 comps

 - NWH - .492x (35.37m)

 - Batman - 1.28x (44.94m)

 - DS2 - .757x (41.46m)

 - TG2 - 1.685x (55.12m)

 

There were a whole lot of shows added since yesterday.  Plenty of space available now for last few days.

Thanks for all of this hard work, @katnisscinnaplex! You need to get paid extra for this hard work! Does The Fri comps include Thursday previews or exclude them?

[Bigscrubnus]

C’mon Shawn post the weekend projection, I need the copium

[katnisscinnaplex]

7 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Thanks for all of this hard work, @katnisscinnaplex! You need to get paid extra for this hard work! Does The Fri comps include Thursday previews or exclude them?

Thanks!  The Friday comps do not include previews, so True Friday.  I'm sure Santikos is overperforming, but the question is by how much.

[el sid]

Tomorrow again both days. Today I just had no patience to count that long.
 

JW3, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, June 9:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 210 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 828 (25 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 253 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 122 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 183 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 575 (16 showtimes, -1 showtime)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.650 (28 showtimes, +11)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.821.

Up modest 10% since yesterday.

Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Thursday): Uncharted (3.7M from previews) had 1.062 sold tickets = x3.6 = 13.3M.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.5M) had 1.221 sold tickets = x3.13 = 14.1M.

And SC (8.8M; I also doubt that movies of that genre are good comps but to have at least some comparison data) had 3.166 sold tickets = x1.21 = 10.65M.
 

The presale number itself is still decent but today I'm a bit less confident. Hopefully the jump will be better tomorrow. But please remember that the Thursday is the (by far) weaker day in my theaters. And both Uncharted and G: A probably had quite good walk-ups but I think a summer movie with Dinos will easily beat that.

 

The Black Phone had today 166 sold tickets for Thursday (15 days left).

Comps: Scream had with 14 days left 502 sold tickets for Thursday

and The Forever Purge had on Monday of its release week 104 sold tickets.

Unsurprisingly I still can't decide if it's doing good or not so good but because it's an original film I think the presales so far are acceptable. And especially thriller and horror movies often have great jumps in the last 1-2 weeks.

 

Elvis had today 228 sold tickets for Thursday (again 15 days left).
Comp: Death on the Nile had on Monday of its release week 212 sold tickets for Thursday.
Months ago I expected way more hype about this movie but at least now it seems that it gains momentum.

Edited June 8, 2022 by el sid

[Brainbug]

12 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	JW3	PLF	32	376	3,617	6,844	52.85%	$16.18	$58,537.99
		Standard	94	715	3,644	12,050	30.24%	$11.84	$43,149.32
	JW3 Total		126	1,091	7,261	18,894	38.43%	$14.00	$101,687.31
T-2	JW3 (Fri)	PLF	60	560	4,667	12,895	36.19%	$15.39	$71,805.52
		Standard	153	1,030	3,599	19,838	18.14%	$11.30	$40,654.05
	JW3 (Fri) Total		213	1,590	8,266	32,733	25.25%	$13.61	$112,459.57

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	JW3	N	104	887	6,052	15,781	38.35%	$14.69	$88,896.56
		Y	22	204	1,209	3,113	38.84%	$10.58	$12,790.75
	JW3 Total		126	1,091	7,261	18,894	38.43%	$14.00	$101,687.31
T-2	JW3 (Fri)	N	106	915	5,395	16,450	32.80%	$14.72	$79,409.37
		Y	107	675	2,871	16,283	17.63%	$11.51	$33,050.20
	JW3 (Fri) Total		213	1,590	8,266	32,733	25.25%	$13.61	$112,459.57

 

JW3 Thu T-1 comp

 - DS 2 - missed

 - NWH - .382x (19.09m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.204x (21.2m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.12x (24.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.757x (25.83m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.319x (25.46m)

 

Continues to impress here.  Well ahead of Top Gun and Batman.  I guess San Antonio like dinos too

 

JW3 Fri T-2 comps

 - NWH - .492x (35.37m)

 - Batman - 1.28x (44.94m)

 - DS2 - .757x (41.46m)

 - TG2 - 1.685x (55.12m)

 

There were a whole lot of shows added since yesterday.  Plenty of space available now for last few days.

 

You give me hope.

[Alex SciChannel]

4 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Thanks!  The Friday comps do not include previews, so True Friday.  I'm sure Santikos is overperforming, but the question is by how much.

Hopefully not by much 🤞

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

C’mon Shawn post the weekend projection, I need the copium

 

Every time you post this type of comment, @Shawn pushes back the post another 30 minutes. 

 

 

[Mulder]

I decided to do a quick look at my theater for Dominion and....eesh. It's looking weak. I know this is a walk-up heavy franchise (As Fallen Kingdom proved) but....damn. We'll know for sure soon.

[LegendaryBen]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

I decided to do a quick look at my theater for Dominion and....eesh. It's looking weak. I know this is a walk-up heavy franchise (As Fallen Kingdom proved) but....damn. We'll know for sure soon.

I sent you a PM

[Starphanluke]

The interesting thing about relying so heavily on walkups, though, is that there's another movie playing that still has incredible momentum and WOM. That could easily sway people into seeing Top Gun instead. Of course, we don't know yet how WOM will be for this one, but I'm not super confident in it. 

 

To use Fallen Kingdom as a baseline: was there another wildly popular/highly-regarded movie out at the time that was doing big box office? I genuinely can't remember. 

 

Anyway, theatres in my area are looking pretty empty (outside of the earliest premium screenings) so far for Dominion, but I didn't check before Fallen Kingdom, so I don't have a great point of comparison.