The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Shawn in response to the inevitable replies:

 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Also, hopefully JW3 doesn't fall off a cliff. I still hope for 400M.

 

Im clinging on to hope as well.

 

Hope is all that there is left.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

That's @Cap lurking in the background (though with the Evans version, which I nearly posted).  

[Sandro Mazzola]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I personally think Lightyears range is more like 60 - 85M and i also think Dominion wont drop 63%. With the added Fathers Day boost, that would actually be a catastrophic drop and while WOM isnt strong probably, i dont think its so weak as to indicate such a drop.

yeah I think JW3 will be high 50's and TGM over 40's with Fathers Day boost. Also Bobs Burgers looks to be getting DI pairings so over 2m is pretty realistic imo.

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Added MTC3

 

Shows: 213

Sold: 11,812/56,899 (20.76%

Gross: $219,361

 

East coast final update.   Went from 4,214 to 5,123 in the final 2 hours for 96 shows.  ATP sitting very close to $20.  Like Keyser said, not a good price for families. (Children's prices looked to be about $3 cheaper on average for the shows I looked at.)  I wouldn't write off the weekend by any means; just expect a smallish number for EA ($1m or less) if we get one.

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 minutes ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

yeah I think JW3 will be high 50's and TGM over 40's with Fathers Day boost. Also Bobs Burgers looks to be getting DI pairings so over 2m is pretty realistic imo.

DIs look to be split between Burgers and Dr Strange 2

[Sandro Mazzola]

Just now, katnisscinnaplex said:

DIs look to be split between Burgers and Dr Strange 2

 

Yep Strange was always likely to pick up some too, the late spring/early summer MCU film of the year has taken a modest boost over the Fathers Day weekend recently. But Strange will have hit that 400m mark by the weekend so I expect Bob's to be the main beneficiary, like Lost City over Sonic2 with Maverick. 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I personally think Lightyears range is more like 60 - 85M and i also think Dominion wont drop 63%. With the added Fathers Day boost, that would actually be a catastrophic drop and while WOM isnt strong probably, i dont think its so weak as to indicate such a drop.

 

Well, Shawn did note the range was subject to revision tomorrow (presumably after seeing Wed sales + whatever other metrics the BOP crew looks at).  Even so, I like seeing @Shawn sticking his neck out rather than play the expectations game that so many studios (and many times industry) estimates do.

 

We mock those "studio estimates" all the TIME here, so it's good to see someone say "No, I think this is breaking out and I'm willing to say so".

 

'ppreciate it, Shawn. 👍

[Cap]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

That's @Cap lurking in the background (though with the Evans version, which I nearly posted).  

Did someone say CHRISTOPHER? 
 

[Brainbug]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Well, Shawn did note the range was subject to revision tomorrow (presumably after seeing Wed sales + whatever other metrics the BOP crew looks at).  Even so, I like seeing @Shawn sticking his neck out rather than play the expectations game that so many studios (and many times industry) estimates do.

 

We mock those "studio estimates" all the TIME here, so it's good to see someone say "No, I think this is breaking out and I'm willing to say so".

 

'ppreciate it, Shawn. 👍

 

I ... i dont disagree with that at all? I just wanted to add my personal opinion to his prediction. Did i formulate something in a rude way? If so, im sorry @Shawn

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I ... i dont disagree with that at all? I just wanted to add my personal opinion to his prediction. Did i formulate something in a rude way? If so, im sorry @Shawn

I don't think you said anything wrong.

 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I ... i dont disagree with that at all? I just wanted to add my personal opinion to his prediction. Did i formulate something in a rude way? If so, im sorry @Shawn

 

No, not at all.  Used your post as a launching off point to note that the range might come down and that I personally like seeing a bullish prediction/projection for once.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

This is egregious @Shawn!! How can I take you seriously with estimates like that?!? 20 years in the box office game negated with one prediction!! My weekend is RUINED 

 

Spoiler

Ehh, I’m right around your lower end number as well. Good stuff  

 

[Bigscrubnus]

I disagree but respect shawn’s opinion. Let’s see how this weekend plays out

[filmlover]

Gotta say I'm more curious what @Shawn's projections on Friday will be for next week's openers and if they'll go up, down, or stabilize. For a bit I was thinking both would break out but now as we get close to release getting a sense that they'll settle for runs in the acceptable/very good range (a run similar to Rocketman for Elvis would put it in the latter category regardless).

 

Also our first taste of tracking for Where the Crawdads Sing, which feels like one of the bigger wild cards of the summer...the book was extremely popular and in Top 10 lists for years yet it feels like hardly anyone is talking about the movie?

[Shawn Robbins]

I'm not ruling out lower numbers, hence the warning about revising tomorrow. I just don't think there's enough data yet to support ruling out the high-ish numbers given what we know about ticket price inflation and backloading potential for Pixar on a holiday weekend.

 

And if Deadline is allowed to say 70-85 with studio input, then clearly there is some reasonable expectation that could be a lowball range. Or maybe they'll be dead on.

 

But we'll see. A lot of scenarios, good and bad, have valid arguments at the moment and I'd rather nudge down to a middle ground rather than over-correct from the long range numbers based exclusively on incomplete (and short window) presales insights.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

There's an AMC investor screening tonight for Black Phone tonight inexplicably and it's nearly sold out at the AMC here. 73 seats. Of course it's just a 100 theater seat but seems there's interest.

 

Elvis update:

 

AMC DOLBY FAN EVENT- (92)

 

THURSDAY 

CINEMARK (7)

510 (4), 9 (3)

AMC (18)

DOLBY: 5 (15)

705 (3)

 

FRIDAY

CINEMARK (6)

11 (0), 240 (1), 620 (5), 10 (0)

AMC (62)

305 (24), 705 (6) = (30)

DOLBY: 635 (32)

 

Last week:

AMC DOLBY FAN EVENT- 70 (+44 from Day 1 of sales week prior)

 

Thursday

AMC: (3)

DOLBY- 5 (0)

7 (3)

CINEMARK (1)

510 (1), 9 (0)

 

Friday

AMC: (6)

DOLBY- 630 (2)

3 (0), 7 (4)

CINEMARK (6)

11 (0), 240 (1), 620 (5), 10 (0)

 

Seems solid? The fan event looks to be doing really well

[M37]

59 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

80m-105m for LY

 

 

Ok, in all seriousness, I think @Shawn makes a decent case why Lightyear could surprise, but more supposition (gut?) rather than hard data. Think the range is too high on the low end. Something like $70-$100 would cover both the weak signals in hand, and the potential for more. An $8M Wed/Thur and a backloaded weekend, matching Sonic in April, still only gets to $96M

 

Part of the reason Cars 3 was more backloaded was the higher share of audience was families, per Deadline:

Seventy-five percent of Cars 3‘s attendees were families, per Disney. ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak drills down to show 54% kids to 17% parents in attendance with those under 7 repping 19% of the kid population. Twenty percent were between the ages of 10-12, while those between 7-9 repped 14%.

 

... and given that LY is both in the TS world and essentially an animated hero movie, don't think that family share will match, expecting closer to Sonic tbh

[katnisscinnaplex]

53 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

East coast final update.   Went from 4,214 to 5,123 in the final 2 hours for 96 shows.  ATP sitting very close to $20.  Like Keyser said, not a good price for families. (Children's prices looked to be about $3 cheaper on average for the shows I looked at.)  I wouldn't write off the weekend by any means; just expect a smallish number for EA ($1m or less) if we get one.

Central update.  Went from 2,366 to 3,116 in final 3 hours for 55 shows.  EST + CST is at $156k.  Up to $249k total pending walkups in other time zones.  Hopefully someone can pull MTC1 & 2 so we get a full picture.

[Sandro Mazzola]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

Ok, in all seriousness, I think @Shawn makes a decent case why Lightyear could surprise, but more supposition (gut?) rather than hard data. Think the range is too high on the low end. Something like $70-$100 would cover both the weak signals in hand, and the potential for more. An $8M Wed/Thur and a backloaded weekend, matching Sonic in April, still only gets to $96M

 

Part of the reason Cars 3 was more backloaded was the higher share of audience was families, per Deadline:

Seventy-five percent of Cars 3‘s attendees were families, per Disney. ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak drills down to show 54% kids to 17% parents in attendance with those under 7 repping 19% of the kid population. Twenty percent were between the ages of 10-12, while those between 7-9 repped 14%.

 

... and given that LY is both in the TS world and essentially an animated hero movie, don't think that family share will match, expecting closer to Sonic tbh

 

I think that lower could drop to 60 Mem...