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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 7/1/2022 at 10:04 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:
Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Nope T-20 Jax 7 51 6 68 8,591 0.79%
    Phx 6 20 2 96 4,344 2.21%
    Ral 8 25 -2 79 3,411 2.32%
  Total   21 96 6 243 16,346 1.49%
Thor 4 T-6 Jax 7 112 207 2,251 17,265 13.04%
    Phx 6 114 137 2,713 18,369 14.77%
    Ral 8 83 167 2,532 10,995 23.03%
  Total   21 309 511 7,496 46,629 16.08%

 

Nope T-20 comps

 - JW-D - .114x (2.06m)

 - Eternals - missed

 - Black Widow - .17x (2.24m)

 - F9 - .715x (5.07m)

 

Thor 4 T-6 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .58x (20.87m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - No Way Home - .349x (17.43m)

 - Black Widow - 2.48x (32.79m)

 - JW3 - 1.95x (35.15m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New* Sold Seats % Sold
Crawdads T-11 Jax 6 18 47 47 1,884 2.49%
    Phx 5 15 17 17 1,833 0.93%
    Ral 7 22 96 96 2,101 4.57%
  Total   18 55 160 160 5,818 2.75%
Nope T-18 Jax 7 51 4 72 8,591 0.84%
    Phx 6 20 12 108 4,344 2.49%
    Ral 8 25 10 89 3,411 2.61%
  Total   21 96 26 269 16,346 1.65%
Thor 4 T-4 Jax 7 112 262 2,513 17,265 14.56%
    Phx 6 114 276 2,989 18,369 16.27%
    Ral 8 89 212 2,744 11,535 23.79%
  Total   21 315 750 8,246 47,169 17.48%

*New sales since Friday morning

 

First look at Crawdads and it's a bit better than I was expecting.  I don't know anything about it, but interest seems to be there.  I only have one EA show in my theaters and it's sold 17 tickets.

 

Crawdads T-11 comps

 - Elvis - missed (~2.1m)

 - NTTD - .352x (1.83m)

 - Dune - .275x (1.4m)

 

Nope T-18 comps

 - NTTD - 1.06x (5.53m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.3x (5.33m)

 - F9 - .678x (4.81m)

 

Thor 4 T-4 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - missed (~20.27m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.71x (30.12m)

 - No Way Home - .36x (18.02m)

 - Black Widow - 2.43x (32.12m)

 - JW3 - missed

Edited by katnisscinnaplex
Fixed Nope comps
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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 7/2/2022 at 7:27 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Minions (Sat) PLF 47 1,258 2,249 9,559 23.53% $13.03 $29,312.63
    Standard 120 2,260 4,085 16,537 24.70% $9.67 $39,492.43
  Total   167 3,518 6,334 26,096 24.27% $10.86 $68,805.06

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Minions (Sat) N 71 1,151 1,936 11,590 16.70% $13.27 $25,685.01
    Y 96 2,367 4,398 14,506 30.32% $9.80 $43,120.05
  Total   167 3,518 6,334 26,096 24.27% $10.86 $68,805.06

 

Before I get into comps, I wanted to look back at this..

 

 

I think the last estimate I saw was ~38m for true Friday.  That would match the Santikos FB3 comp unadjusted.  Most other movies comped to 32-34 unadjusted and 40-42 using Thursday adjustment.  This may not be wise, but I want to factor in a little higher multiplier for Canada Day (we'll know more once we see some Canada numbers).  

 

When it comes to final Sat presales, it didn't come close to my prediction from yesterday.  This run was about 4 hours earlier, but that would only be a difference of 4am and 8am local for Santikos and I don't think many tickets are sold in that period.  Only having one comp (and Batman at that) didn't help either.  I wish I had run FB3 for Sat and Sun to see if that comp held up, but alas.

 

Minions Sat T-0 straight comps

 - NWH - .299x (22.08m)

 - Batman - .554x (23.95m)

 - DS2 - .354x (20.49m)

 - TG2 - .707x (26.9m)

 - JW3 - .409x (19.18m)

 

Friday adjusted comps

 - NWH - 28.05m

 - Batman - 28.34m

 - DS2 - 25.12m

 - TG2 - 29.2m

 - JW3 - 28.9m

 

These aren't really inspiring, but I've learned not to count out the Minions walkups.  I guess I'll put my Sat prediction at.... 29m and plan to be pleasantly surprised.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Minions (Sun) PLF 48 1,692 1,692 9,682 17.48% $13.23 $22,388.42
    Standard 120 3,335 3,335 16,545 20.16% $9.51 $31,721.29
  Total   168 5,027 5,027 26,227 19.17% $10.76 $54,109.71

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Minions (Sun) N 72 1,442 1,442 11,721 12.30% $13.41 $19,338.51
    Y 96 3,585 3,585 14,506 24.71% $9.70 $34,771.20
  Total   168 5,027 5,027 26,227 19.17% $10.76 $54,109.71

 

I think the last estimate I saw for Saturday was 32m which was higher than any of the Friday adjusted comps. I'm hoping to do some more analysis on the weekend sales comps at some point, but I just haven't had time yet.  

 

Minions Sun T-0 straight comps

 - NWH - .25x (16.06m)

 - Batman - .5x (17.23m)

 - DS2 - .45x (17.46m)

 - TG2 - .608x (22.29m)

 

Adjusted comps (avg Fri/Sat multipliers)

 - NWH - 21.83m

 - Batman - 21.69m

 - DS2 - 24.35m

 - TG2 - 25.37m

 

With tomorrow being a holiday, I expect this to be more like Saturday than a normal Sunday.  Here are the comps using only Saturday adjustment.

 - NWH - 23.26m

 - Batman - 23.01m

 - DS2 - 27.28m

 - TG2 - 26.52m

 

I'll put my prediction as the average of these: 25.02m

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 7/1/2022 at 11:10 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-6 Thor 4 PLF 57 111 4,047 11,672 34.67% $15.85 $64,144.09
    Standard 87 142 2,553 11,439 22.32% $11.80 $30,134.82
  Thor 4 Total   144 253 6,600 23,111 28.56% $14.28 $94,278.91

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-6 Thor 4 N 103 180 5,266 16,531 31.86% $14.95 $78,721.33
    Y 41 73 1,334 6,580 20.27% $11.66 $15,557.58
  Thor 4 Total   144 253 6,600 23,111 28.56% $14.28 $94,278.91

 

Thor T-6 comps

 - No Way Home - missed

 - DS2 - missed

 - Batman + EA - missed

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New* Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-4 Thor 4 PLF 57 250 4,297 11,672 36.81% $15.79 $67,857.51
    Standard 87 324 2,877 11,439 25.15% $11.74 $33,763.50
  Thor 4 Total   144 574 7,174 23,111 31.04% $14.17 $101,621.01

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New* Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-4 Thor 4 N 103 379 5,645 16,531 34.15% $14.86 $83,893.30
    Y 41 195 1,529 6,580 23.24% $11.59 $17,727.71
  Thor 4 Total   144 574 7,174 23,111 31.04% $14.17 $101,621.01

*New sales since Friday morning

 

Thor T-4 comps

 - No Way Home - .43x (21.49m)

 - DS2 - .65x (23.365m)

 - Batman + EA - missed

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted (edited)

Thor 4

SW/Toronto Ontario T-5 (Friday July  ) EDIT (thank you @charlie Jatinder)

 

thor4 # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 20 288 8125 35418 43543 0.1865
Fri 20 280 5666 34467 40133 0.1411

 

 

13 shows lost for Thursday for whatever reason, prolly quick fills for Minions for an extra couple of days.

 

COMP 

 

 DS2 Thu/Fri 4.2 OD

 

x.9890 Doctor Strange 2 (4.15 million)

 

Edited by Tinalera
added comp
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Thor 4

SW/Toronto Ontario T-5 (Friday July  ) (no comps)

 

thor4 # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 20 288 8125 35418 43543 0.1865
Fri 20 280 5666 34467 40133 0.1411

 

 

13 shows lost for Thursday for whatever reason, prolly quick fills for Minions for an extra couple of days.

its crazy there are more seats for thursday than friday :-)

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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted

NOPE

SW/Toronto Ontario (not many shows but figure Id start the count)

 

 

NOPE # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Thurs 5 15 142 4779 4921 0.0288
Fri 5 21 49 6511 6560 0.0074
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Tinalera Box Office Gold

Tinalera

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

its crazy there are more seats for thursday than friday 🙂

That will change come Wednesday when Cineplex drops additional Friday seating down. Its always weird that up to a Wed before opening Thurs seats tend to be more reliable, alot of seats held back for Friday. Its why I was always hesitant to show friday seat counts for presales, knowing that that number will HUGELY change come Wed, but I put them in my counts just for that little more data, so people do see how much things can pop when the inventory drops.

 

I tell its grand fun suddenly adding an extra 50 plus shows and ensuing seat counts on Wednesdays :bash: (having said that Thor 4 actually has more seats than usual, prolly it being a Marvel tentpole. For me though its the 3000 plus seats sold difference on Thursday compared to (pre wed) Friday. Alot of people wanting that first viewing.

 

 

Edited by Tinalera
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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/30/2022 at 2:57 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1211 3809 31.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1281 4985 25.70%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
5888 245 38701 15.21% 15 242

 

AMCs sold 4066
Cinemarks sold 808
Regals sold 561
Harkins sold 453

 

1.39x Top Gun Maverick T-7 (26.81M)

0.666x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (23.97M) [+302]

1.37x Batman T-7 (29.54M)

0.407x NWH T-7 (20.37M)

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1300 3809 34.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1422 4985 28.53%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 3 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
6682 794 39065 17.10% 15 244

 

AMCs sold 4418
Cinemarks sold 958
Regals sold 720
Harkins sold 586

 

1.26x Top Gun Maverick T-4 (23.42M)
0.669x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (24.07M) [+1149 over 3 days]

1.32x Batman T-4 (28.60M)

0.426x NWH T-4 (21.31M)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/30/2022 at 3:03 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-7 Thursday(190 showings): 5980(+259)/47563

1.18x Top Gun Maverick T-7 (22.75M)

0.602x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (21.66M) [+443]

1.17x Batman T-7 (25.32M)

0.297x NWH T-7 (14.84M)

 

T-8 Friday(258 showings): 3604(+260)/67683

0.748x Top Gun Maverick T-8 (24.50M)

0.590x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (32.30M) [+400]

1.44x Batman T-8 (50.28M)

0.238x NWH T-8 (17.09M)

 

T-9 Saturday(264 showings): 1899(+138)/69227

0.543x Top Gun Maverick T-9 (20.63M)

0.527x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (30.46M) [+206]

1.41x Batman T-9 (61.12M)

0.213x NWH T-9 (15.77M)

 

T-10 Sunday(253 showings): 698(+48)/68879

0.803x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (29.46M)

0.738x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (28.69M) [+96]

2.30x Batman T-10 (78.65M)

0.328x NWH T-10 (21.03M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex [3 days of sales]

 

T-4 Thursday(199 showings): 7082(+1102)/48875

1.13x Top Gun Maverick T-4 (21.78M)

0.607x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (21.85M) [+1731 over 3 days]

1.22x Batman T-4 (26.39M)

0324x NWH T-4 (16.22M)

 

T-5 Friday(258 showings): 4410(+806)/67683

0.678x Top Gun Maverick T-5 (22.22M)

0.566x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (30.97M) [+1686 over 3 days]

1.29x Batman T-5 (45.09M)

0.258x NWH T-5 (18.56M)

 

T-6 Saturday(264 showings): 2484(+585)/69227

0.517x Top Gun Maverick T-6 (19.65M)

0.511x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (29.52M) [+1260 over 3 days]

1.31x Batman T-6 (56.74M)

0.228x NWH T-6 (16.83M)

 

T-7 Sunday(253 showings): 873(+175)/68879

0.663x Top Gun Maverick T-7 (24.31M)

0.671x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (26.10M) [+355 over 3 days]

1.93x Batman T-7 (65.79M)

0.331x NWH T-7 (21.26M)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 6/30/2022 at 3:08 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-7 Thursday(196 showings): 14240(+723)/28653 ATP: $15.24

0.735x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (26.46M) [+1037]

1.31x Batman T-7 (23.00M, only using Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.539x NWH T-7 (26.95M)

 

T-8 Friday(246 showings): 11936(+450)/35935 ATP: $15.25

0.686x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (37.53M) [+760]

1.10x Batman T-8 (38.66M)

0.499x NWH T-8 (35.93M)

 

T-9 Saturday(258 showings): 11367(+500)/37896 ATP: $14.71

0.625x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (36.12M) [+801]

1.05x Batman T-9 (45.62M)

0.482x NWH T-9 (35.65M)

 

T-10 Sunday(231 showings): 6372(+320)/34356 ATP: $14.25

0.671x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (26.09M) [+576]

1.31x Batman T-10 (44.69M)

0.507x NWH T-10 (32.53M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse [3 days of sales]

 

T-4 Thursday(198 showings): 16925(+2685)/28891 ATP: $15.27

0.772x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (27.80M) [+2547 over 3 days]

1.32x Batman T-4 (23.29M, only using Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.607x NWH T-4 (30.33M)

 

T-5 Friday(250 showings): 14413(+2477)/36586 ATP: $15.17

0.703x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (38.48M) [+3096 over 3 days]

1.07x Batman T-5 (37.31M)

0.550x NWH T-5 (39.53M)

 

T-6 Saturday(259 showings): 13734(+2367)/38106 ATP: $14.71

0.628x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (36.30M) [+3682 over 3 days]

0.964x Batman T-6 (41.72M)

0.514x NWH T-6 (37.99M)

 

T-7 Sunday(236 showings): 7900(+1528)/34949 ATP: $14.29

0.636x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (24.72M) [+2929 over 3 days]

1.14x Batman T-7 (38.98M)

0.520x NWH T-7 (33.39M)

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LegendaryBen Sleeper Hit

LegendaryBen

Posted
Posted
Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Thor seems to be dominated by coasts. Its performance at Denver and Megaplex just meh. At just 60% of pace in the final week is really bad. May be things will change once reviews come out. 

Sub-JWD type opening would not shock me at this point. @TwoMisfits predicted a sub-$150M OW. Unless its reviews are like TGM and has huge walk ups like Minions 2, it's not opening more than JWD. $138M OW/$360M Total

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
Just now, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse [3 days of sales]

 

T-4 Thursday(198 showings): 16925(+2685)/28891 ATP: $15.27

0.772x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (27.80M) [+2547 over 3 days]

1.32x Batman T-4 (23.29M, only using Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.607x NWH T-4 (30.33M)

 

T-5 Friday(250 showings): 14413(+2477)/36586 ATP: $15.17

0.703x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (38.48M) [+3096 over 3 days]

1.07x Batman T-5 (37.31M)

0.550x NWH T-5 (39.53M)

 

T-6 Saturday(259 showings): 13734(+2367)/38106 ATP: $14.71

0.628x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (36.30M) [+3682 over 3 days]

0.964x Batman T-6 (41.72M)

0.514x NWH T-6 (37.99M)

 

T-7 Sunday(236 showings): 7900(+1528)/34949 ATP: $14.29

0.636x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (24.72M) [+2929 over 3 days]

1.14x Batman T-7 (38.98M)

0.520x NWH T-7 (33.39M)

Drafthouse has been the strongest and that is not coasts dominated. But they are extremely strong for SH movies. Even Bats did better than overall market. 

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thor seems to be dominated by coasts. Its performance at Denver and Megaplex just meh. At just 60% of pace in the final week is really bad. May be things will change once reviews come out. 

Agree, also possible holiday weekend impacting sales. Black Widow had a pretty decent final coupe of days after July 4, so maybe Thor follows suit?

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, M37 said:

Agree, also possible holiday weekend impacting sales. Black Widow had a pretty decent final coupe of days after July 4, so maybe Thor follows suit?

BW's July 5 increase was pretty juiced compared to a regular Monday (at least in Cinemark) and Thor also has reviews dropping the same day. I've got a hefty increase penciled in for that day, which is why I'm still kinda thinking 28+ previews. 

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ViewerAnon Sleeper Hit

ViewerAnon

Posted
Posted

I don’t expect LOVE AND THUNDER to be as frontloaded as DS2 - and I’ve had enough holiday weekend BBQ at this point that my brain might be melted - but is it possible L&T opens under RAGNAROK’s $122.7M OW? Most comps I’m seeing seem to point around 65% of DS2, which would equate to $121.8M by my math.

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