The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Caesar]

2 hours ago, 21C said:

I still contend Batman Begins is a terrible comparison because the character is more popular now than he was back then, superhero movies now make more money on average and BvS/JL didn't tarnish the brand nearly as much as Batman and Robin did.

I think it's the best comparison we have. The next best might be The Amazing Spider-Man due to the relatively quick release since the last Batman movie and that movie went from its past installment breaking the OW record to taking five days to get past $100 million (and based on how it did even if it did have a normal 3 day weekend it probably wouldn't have broken $100 on OW).

Edited February 13, 2022 by Caesar

[21C]

8 minutes ago, Caesar said:

I think it's the best comparison we have. The next best might be The Amazing Spider-man due to the relatively quick release since the last Batman movie and that movie went from its past installment breaking the OW record to taking five days to get past $100 million (and based on how it did even if it did have a normal 3 day weekend it probably wouldn't have broken $100 on OW).

The thing is that Batman v. Superman was not a Batman movie, and neither was JL. Batman v. Superman was a sequel to an extremely controversial film, it wasn't primarily set in Gotham, it didn't have any Batman villains, so I don't think that TASM is a good comparison either because I don't agree with counting BvS as a proper Batman film.

Edited February 13, 2022 by 21C

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:

Am I wrong, or do these comps seem quite good this far out from wide release, considering the longer period for ticket presales before social media reactions/reviews/hype fully kicks into overdrive?

 

"Quite good" would depend on what you consider a good final number to be. If you think it's $20M, then yes these are good IMO because it looks like $20M should happen. If you're hoping for $30M then it's not good. Even $25M is iffy IMO. 

 

On that particular data set (Philadelphia), it went up 0.03 on the Black Widow comp. There are 20 days of PS left (including previews Thursday). Let's say it averages 0.05 per day the rest of the way. That's 1.556X BW which would be just over $20M. 

Not saying this is how it'll play out, just giving you an idea. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

On 2/11/2022 at 11:07 AM, PenguinXXR said:

The Batman - 24HR’s of Presales 

28 showtimes, 215 tickets sold, 195 IMAX/Dolby, 20 Regular

 

The Batman - (No Particular Time Countdown, I Just Wanted To Do A Count)

Tuesday - 1 showtime, 146 tickets sold, IMAX 
Thursday - 28 showtimes, 272 tickets sold, 239 IMAX/Dolby, 33 regular 
 

Comps vs Finals (Tues + Thurs)

Endgame - 418 vs 3623 = $6.92M

No Way Home - 418 vs 3545 = $5.90M

Rise of Skywalker - 418 vs 1826 = $9.16M

The 355 - 418 vs 31 = $4.71M


Obviously there's a huge gulf in my comps since I didn't track anything post-TROS until NWH. It is what it is on that front but yea, I'm hoping for a pickup. My theater is pretty great at Marvel comps but I've never tracked a DC film so I'm not sure if it will hold steady in the superhero genre or will it be a flame out? Maybe TROS will end up being the better comp, if it turns out The Batman will underperform here VS the national average (as TROS did.)

Edited February 13, 2022 by PenguinXXR

[cax16]

I looked back on my tracking from before and obviously times are different now but when I tracked Joker sales I did it for each day when presales started, don’t have time for that anymore lol. But, what I have from before for Joker on day 4 of presales from the nearest 24 theatres to my place was 2609 tickets sold. The Batman is at 6032 on day 4 with capacity restrictions of course. The Batman is ahead of what Joker was at after day 9 of presales. I can’t recall how early Joker went on sale here so I can’t add any context to any of the numbers really. 
 

It doesn’t really mean much cause habits have obviously changed but I was just looking at numbers before I headed out for my walk so I thought I would look at the Batman tickets sold and share what I got. 

[WittyUsername]

8 hours ago, Caesar said:

Yes and Batman Begins was the first Batman movie in 8 years and had the additional hook of being very different from the past Batman movies, it still only made $73 million over five days which adjusted for inflation would be very close to my guess of a $100 million opening.

 

Plus Justice League was only four and a half years ago, BvS was six years ago and we've now had six people play a live action Batman over the past 30 years.

2005 was an extremely different time. Superhero movies weren’t what they are today.

[excel1]

6 hours ago, Caesar said:

I think it's the best comparison we have. The next best might be The Amazing Spider-Man due to the relatively quick release since the last Batman movie and that movie went from its past installment breaking the OW record to taking five days to get past $100 million (and based on how it did even if it did have a normal 3 day weekend it probably wouldn't have broken $100 on OW).

 

6 hours ago, 21C said:

The thing is that Batman v. Superman was not a Batman movie, and neither was JL. Batman v. Superman was a sequel to an extremely controversial film, it wasn't primarily set in Gotham, it didn't have any Batman villains, so I don't think that TASM is a good comparison either because I don't agree with counting BvS as a proper Batman film.

 

Being serious (for once):

 

There frankly is not a great comp for this in general. Too many variables pulling in all directions. 

 

-Presales have changed dramatically in recent years, even since BvS/JL. Audiences are certainly more presales heavy than they were in years before. 

-While it is not a sequel (which we know perform better with resales), it is an adaption of a hugely popular character w/ a massive preexisting fanbase that should follow a similar trajectory. I would expect it to perform more favorably in comparison to NWH than presales suggest, but not a dramatic extent. 

-Batman Begins is a poor comparison given how much worse the characters reputation was post- B&R than it was post Nolan/JL film. If anything, the Batman brand currently suffers from overexposure after the hugely popular Nolan films which are still popular in pop culture, The lego Batman stuff, 2019 JOKER, the TV shows, the DCU films, etc. There is a novelty factor here being the first true Batman film in ten years, but it isn't quite as fresh. On the other hand, the character certainly feels more novel than when Holland's Spider-man was introduced as the 3rd young/main Spider-man in 10 years. 

-The prolonged timeframe of the presales means they're going to be more spread out than usual. 

 

Big picture perspective: it's a brand which is basically domestic cinematic royalty historically which an insane track record, it's opening in the middle of a D.E.A.D. market, (supposedly) the quality of the film is high, the marketing is widespread, showtimes are abundant.  

 

This is going to be a true "maximum awareness" AND "maximum accessibility" event. Not QUITE maximum appeal, though. Personally, being realistic, I would be shocked if this translated to under $150m opening weekend. I would be more shocked at these conditions translating to $140m than I would by them translating to $200m. R-rated, actionless JOKER hitting $93m 2 years ago is a sign - there is a LOT of potential here. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by excel1

[BruiseCruise]

If this film is really as good as wb/test audiences seem to think it is then the walkups will be huge and probably push it to 150m if not more

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

13 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

 

Being serious (for once):

 

There frankly is not a great comp for this in general. Too many variables pulling in all directions. 

 

-Presales have changed dramatically in recent years, even since BvS/JL. Audiences are certainly more presales heavy than they were in years before. 

-While it is not a sequel (which we know perform better with resales), it is an adaption of a hugely popular character w/ a massive preexisting fanbase that should follow a similar trajectory. I would expect it to perform more favorably in comparison to NWH than presales suggest, but not a dramatic extent. 

-Batman Begins is a poor comparison given how much worse the characters reputation was post- B&R than it was post Nolan/JL film. If anything, the Batman brand currently suffers from overexposure after the hugely popular Nolan films which are still popular in pop culture, The lego Batman stuff, 2019 JOKER, the TV shows, the DCU films, etc. There is a novelty factor here being the first true Batman film in ten years, but it isn't quite as fresh. On the other hand, the character certainly feels more novel than when Holland's Spider-man was introduced as the 3rd young/main Spider-man in 10 years. 

 

Big picture perspective: it's a brand which is basically domestic cinematic royalty historically which an insane track record, it's opening in the middle of a D.E.A.D. market, (supposedly) the quality of the film is high, the marketing is widespread, showtimes are abundant.  

 

This is going to be a true "maximum awareness" AND "maximum accessibility" event. Not QUITE maximum appeal, though. Personally, being realistic, I would be shocked if this translated to under $150m opening weekend. I would be more shocked at these conditions translating to $140m than I would by them translating to $200m. R-rated, actionless JOKER hitting $93m 2 years ago is a sign - there is a LOT of potential here. 

 

 

[excel1]

Thinking about it more, JOKER's opening 2 years ago give me more confidence. That was an R-Rated, actionless adult drama. YE, many viewed it as at the pseudo Ledger sequel/prequel we always wanted and never received, but all the same. The floor for Batman films is extraordinary high and we should expect superb walk-up business. 

[filmlover]

Batman: the only thing in the world keeping @excel1 from picking up sorcery and putting a hex on WB for letting Nolan go. Embrace your new overlords!

 

[excel1]

 

18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Batman: the only thing in the world keeping @excel1 from picking up sorcery and putting a hex on WB for letting Nolan go. Embrace your new overlords!

 

 

Will always love Nolan but he went Full Nolan with the bizarre, unmarketable misfire that was TENET. Meanwhile, WB gaining Reeve and Villanueve? Not bad.

 

Only better thing WB could do would be to hire @excel1

Edited February 13, 2022 by excel1

[Ledmonkey96]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

Thinking about it more, JOKER's opening 2 years ago give me more confidence. That was an R-Rated, actionless adult drama. YE, many viewed it as at the pseudo Ledger sequel/prequel we always wanted and never received, but all the same. The floor for Batman films is extraordinary high and we should expect superb walk-up business. 

The big issue i think you are making the assumption that action in a movie will automatically translate to success when one of the highest grossing movies ever it Titanic. People will go if they think a story is good, if the story is good and the action only decent then that's more likely to drag the movie down i think.

[keysersoze123]

Why is anyone thinking this will open < 100m. MTC data covers a big chunk of domestic market and Presales already has locked up 100m OW comfortably !!!! Its way ahead of any movie not named NWH and it still has boost from reviews/reception and WB is not backing down on promotion for sure. 

 

That said its OW wont be as high as initial PS for early shows indicated. That still does not make it bad at all. its going to open big.

[21C]

5 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

 

Being serious (for once):

 

There frankly is not a great comp for this in general. Too many variables pulling in all directions. 

 

-Presales have changed dramatically in recent years, even since BvS/JL. Audiences are certainly more presales heavy than they were in years before. 

-While it is not a sequel (which we know perform better with resales), it is an adaption of a hugely popular character w/ a massive preexisting fanbase that should follow a similar trajectory. I would expect it to perform more favorably in comparison to NWH than presales suggest, but not a dramatic extent. 

-Batman Begins is a poor comparison given how much worse the characters reputation was post- B&R than it was post Nolan/JL film. If anything, the Batman brand currently suffers from overexposure after the hugely popular Nolan films which are still popular in pop culture, The lego Batman stuff, 2019 JOKER, the TV shows, the DCU films, etc. There is a novelty factor here being the first true Batman film in ten years, but it isn't quite as fresh. On the other hand, the character certainly feels more novel than when Holland's Spider-man was introduced as the 3rd young/main Spider-man in 10 years. 

,

My main argument has always been that I don't see said overexposure as a detriment to the film; I actually see it as a benefit, because it means the character has been accumulating more fans towards the past decade while, at the same time, by none of those being proper Batman solo films,  leaving a giant itch in the market has been left open to be scratched.

If you liked Joker and The Batman gets great reviews, you're gonna want to see The Batman. 
If you liked The Dark Knight trilogy and The Batman gets great reviews, you're gonna want to se The Batman.
If you liked BvS and are not a deranged Snyder cultist, you're gonna want to see The Batman because this Batman seems as dark and badass as that one.
If you liked the Arkham games, you're gonna want to see The Batman just because of how action-packed the film looks.
If you're a kid that got into LEGO Batman at 7, you're now gonna want to see The Batman at 12-13.
-If you like the TV shows like Batwoman, Titans and Gotham, you're clearly not concerned with critical reception so are gonna go watch this anyway. 

Those are so, so many different generations of people that now The Batman has at its disposal as potential ticket buyers; it's just the two biggest ones (which are the TDK and Joker fans) are very dependant on critical reception to make sure they go to the theater.
 

Edited February 13, 2022 by 21C

[Dragoncaine]

A tweet has been deleted that said, citing Deadline as a source, the budget is now $185m after delays and COVID, etc. If true, this movie really needs great of WOM and good-to-great reviews to pack in the crowds. I really want this one to be a hit if it's even half as good as it looks.

[BruiseCruise]

How did covid balloon batman's budget that much but had basically no impact on NWH budget?

[21C]

1 minute ago, BruiseCruise said:

How did covid balloon batman's budget that much but had basically no impact on NWH budget?

Because NWH had COVID in mind since the beginning of shooting, while The Batman had to stop for 6 months and completely reconfigure some of the plans they previously had by building more sets.

[excel1]

That $100m figure was no doubt nonsense. Its obvious from the trailers it is more expensive than that.

[Eduardo]

This chat look more like a Marvel Fandom than a box office prediction.