The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, M37 said:

 

Minions was one of the most insanely backloaded/late growth rate sales trajectories post pandemic - even more than Venom 2! Would probably comp to like a $100M Thursday 😂

Yea I was thinking more as an overall comp (IM, multiplier) vs being a previews comp.

[Menor the Destroyer]

25 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

Just eyeballing it, I’d say probably the 3rd biggest first day sales of the year. And obviously it’s not on the level of IW or EG, but it’s certainly on par or better than a lot of “fanbase” franchises.

It is certainly not the 3rd biggest first day sales of the year or even especially close. In Marcus it'll maybe do 1/3 of WF day 1 (accounting for blocked seats, probably less), and I don't think Marcus will be especially unrepresentative. Avatar is definitely not a fan driven franchise.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

It is certainly not the 3rd biggest first day sales of the year or even especially close. In Marcus it'll maybe do 1/3 of WF day 1 (accounting for blocked seats, probably 1/4), and I don't think Marcus will be especially unrepresentative. Avatar is definitely not a fan driven franchise.

[CJohn]

There is a theater near me with 6 screens and Avatar has 4 of them starting December 15 lmao.

[filmlover]

Deadline Thanksgiving:

 

https://deadline.com/2022/11/box-office-wakanda-forever-strange-world-disney-bob-iger-thanksgiving-1235179433/
 

Strange World: $30M+ 5-day and will be on Disney+ by Christmas

Bones and All: $7-9M 5-day

Glass Onion: $6-8M 5-day

Devotion: $7-8M

The Fabelmans: no number

[filmlover]

That Bones and All number from Deadline looks like a wild overestimation if you ask me. It’s probably going to end up incredibly frontloaded because the only tickets between tomorrow and Sunday it’s sold near me are for tomorrow night. 

[CaptNathanBrittles]

Probably best to comp AVATAR 2 with THE GODFATHER, PART II. Both sequels to the highest grossing film, both mid-December releases, both over three hours.

[thajdikt]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Deadline Thanksgiving:

 

https://deadline.com/2022/11/box-office-wakanda-forever-strange-world-disney-bob-iger-thanksgiving-1235179433/
 

Strange World: $30M+ 5-day and will be on Disney+ by Christmas

Bones and All: $7-9M 5-day

Glass Onion: $6-8M 5-day

Devotion: $7-8M

The Fabelmans: no number

40M from Wed-Sunday for WF would be bad no?

[GOGODanca]

Strange World has a 135m budget btw

[Inceptionzq]

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

198

2354

8.41%

AMC Highlands 24

Total

136

1774

7.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
736	N/A	24209	3.04%	15	157

 

AMCs sold	516
Cinemarks sold	90
Regals sold	72
Harkins sold	58

 

0.418x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (11.72M)

0.289x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (8.39M)

0.529x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (9.52M)

0.487x Batman first 6.5 hours (10.53M)

 

As has already been mentioned, the comp situation for this movie is gonna be tough. Regardless, doesn't seem like anything special so far but presales shouldn't be too much of a worry for Avatar unless they are really bad. I'll count again late tonight and maybe tomorrow morning to get close to the first 24 hours.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Inceptionzq

[poweranimals]

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

198

2354

8.41%

AMC Highlands 24

Total

136

1774

7.67%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
736	N/A	24209	3.04%	15	157

 

AMCs sold	516
Cinemarks sold	90
Regals sold	72
Harkins sold	58

 

0.418x Black Panther WF first 11.5 hours (11.72M)

0.529x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (9.52M)

0.487x Batman first 6.5 hours (10.53M)

 

As has already been mentioned, the comp situation for this movie is gonna be tough. Regardless, doesn't seem like anything special so far but presales shouldn't be too much of a worry for Avatar unless they are really bad. I'll count again late tonight and maybe tomorrow morning to get close to the first 24 hours.

It's still interesting to see nonetheless.

[Inceptionzq]

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-24 Thursday(103 showings): 737/25083

0.361x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (10.46M)

0.725x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (13.05M)

0.336x Batman first 6.5 hours (7.25M)

 

T-25 Friday(154 showings): 586/36835

0.689x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (27.94M)

0.659x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (27.41M)

0.961x Batman first 6.5 hours (33.62M)

 

T-26 Saturday(153 showings): 544/39352

1.55x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (65.27M)

0.836x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (39.20M)

2.13x Batman first 6.5 hours (92.29M)

 

T-27 Sunday(175 showings): 142/44851

1.56x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (50.70M)

1.07x Jurassic World 3 T-27 (41.21M)

5.92x Batman first 6.5 hours (202.00M)

 

Already has a nice distribution of sales throughout the weekend

[GOGODanca]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-24 Thursday(103 showings): 737/25083

0.361x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (10.46M)

0.725x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (13.05M)

0.336x Batman first 6.5 hours (7.25M)

 

T-25 Friday(154 showings): 586/36835

0.689x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (27.94M)

0.659x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (27.41M)

0.961x Batman first 6.5 hours (33.62M)

 

T-26 Saturday(153 showings): 544/39352

1.55x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (65.27M)

0.836x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (39.20M)

2.13x Batman first 6.5 hours (92.29M)

 

T-27 Sunday(175 showings): 142/44851

1.56x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (50.70M)

1.07x Jurassic World 3 T-27 (41.21M)

5.92x Batman first 6.5 hours (202.00M)

 

Already has a nice distribution of sales throughout the weekend

Those Saturday and Sunday sales

 

[Fanboy]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-24 Thursday(103 showings): 737/25083

0.361x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (10.46M)

0.725x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (13.05M)

0.336x Batman first 6.5 hours (7.25M)

 

T-25 Friday(154 showings): 586/36835

0.689x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (27.94M)

0.659x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (27.41M)

0.961x Batman first 6.5 hours (33.62M)

 

T-26 Saturday(153 showings): 544/39352

1.55x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (65.27M)

0.836x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (39.20M)

2.13x Batman first 6.5 hours (92.29M)

 

T-27 Sunday(175 showings): 142/44851

1.56x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (50.70M)

1.07x Jurassic World 3 T-27 (41.21M)

5.92x Batman first 6.5 hours (202.00M)

 

Already has a nice distribution of sales throughout the weekend

Based off this JWD definitely looks like the best comp. Will likely be very backloaded and walk up heavy. Not too worried about these early presales ATM. 

[Inceptionzq]

Avatar The Way of Water Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-24 Thursday(127 showings): 1254/18613 ATP: $16.94

0.174x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (5.06M)

0.383x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (6.89M)

0.252x Batman first 6.5 hours (4.44M)

 

T-25 Friday(189 showings): 1378/27738 ATP: $16.27

0.299x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (12.12M)

0.523x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (21.75M)

0.333x Batman first 6.5 hours (11.66M)

 

T-26 Saturday(196 showings): 1576/28708 ATP: $15.43

0.408x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (17.18M)

0.563x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (26.40M)

0.512x Batman first 6.5 hours (22.15M)

 

T-27 Sunday(191 showings): 637/27775 ATP: $15.08

0.364x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (11.84M)

0.580x Jurassic World 3 T-27 (22.39M)

0.564x Batman first 6.5 hours (19.26M)

[CJohn]

Avatar doesn't appeal to a type of crowd that rushes to buy. The best and only possible comp since the reopening likely is JWD.

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah seems like it will be around JWD first day after 24 hours, very nice and i think they're similar franchises so it's probably the best comparisson.

 

The fact that is already showing strong signs of backloaded is great as well 

 

Now the movie just needs to deliver, the interest is definitely real

[Menor the Destroyer]

It's likely higher than JWD's first day, but JWD day 1 was T-42, which makes a real difference. It'll take a few days for T-x comps to stabilize, once they do those will probably be the best. 

[Porthos]

Biggest 1st day sales 2022 [Sacto Edition]

 

MoM                        6,749

L&T                          4,161

BP2                         3,254 [NOTE: had 39 days of pre-sales]

The Batman 2,406/2,881  [NOTE: had 475 tickets for EA showtimes for two days before preview/OD tickets went on sale]

TGM                         1,516

JW3                            715  [NOTE: had 43 days of pre-sales] 

 

Should easily pass JW3 locally (though the extra long pre-sale period has to be noted, and in fact was noted).  We'll see how close it can get to TGM here.  Probably will include TGM as an upper bound and JW3 as a lower and kinda eyeball a midpoint between the two as an opening guess.

 

Shame that JW3 had such a long pre-sale run, otherwise it might be a near perfect comp (setting aside the 3D aspect).

Edited November 22, 2022 by Porthos

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

16 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Avatar The Way of Water Megaplex

 

T-24 Thursday(103 showings): 737/25083

0.361x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (10.46M)

0.725x Jurassic World 3 T-24 (13.05M)

0.336x Batman first 6.5 hours (7.25M)

 

T-25 Friday(154 showings): 586/36835

0.689x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (27.94M)

0.659x Jurassic World 3 T-25 (27.41M)

0.961x Batman first 6.5 hours (33.62M)

 

T-26 Saturday(153 showings): 544/39352

1.55x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (65.27M)

0.836x Jurassic World 3 T-26 (39.20M)

2.13x Batman first 6.5 hours (92.29M)

 

T-27 Sunday(175 showings): 142/44851

1.56x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (50.70M)

1.07x Jurassic World 3 T-27 (41.21M)

5.92x Batman first 6.5 hours (202.00M)

 

Already has a nice distribution of sales throughout the weekend

 

Since we all know A2 will be a WOM movie, I think it's clear that The Batman is the correct comp.