The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I don't think Marvel can really do that much to increase sales. People know what to expect from this franchise. It's more of the same. Huge surge won't happen without something drastic happening between sequels ( a GOD forbid...a death...see Dark Knight and Fast and Furios)or if the predecessor did ok but it was discovered later at home, which is not the case here.

I would agree but in this case the lack of interest could be linked with lack on confidence on the quality because of the recent MCU efforts [which we´ll never know for sure but it´s looking like a decent bet], and in this case i think they could do some work to convince people is a good and relevant movie, but they´re doing the secrecy game again and it seems to be hurting it instead of making people hyped 

 

When even distributors are pointing out the marketing for lack of effort, there´s a problem. For the safe of their own brand since it´s all connected, Marvel really should try harder to avoid bad headlines, because if it opens with 110M like it seems very possible seeing these presales pattern, the claims about the death of SH movies will get 10x bigger since this isn´t some B Tier franchise like Ant Man, and they have another tricky movie to sell with The Marvels right after 

Edited April 13, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Vol 2 started tracking at $160M before ending up around $14M less. Different times of course, but worth noting I think. Given that presales have been struggling to keep up with Ant-Man I feel like we’ll see something similar. Just depends on this final marketing push.

Vol 2 was tracking at 150M https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/guardians-galaxy-vol-2-tracking-galactical-150m-us-debut-993727/

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Damn, was really hoping for a Renfield breakout. Universal’s had a nice streak of crazy, wacky concepts this year.

Universal actually had a good winning streak going on since December (Violent Night, Puss in Boots, M3GAN, Knock at the Cabin, Cocaine Bear, and of course Mario). Guess it had to end at some point, though their summer looks very unsure aside from Fast X and wild card Oppenheimer (Ruby Gillman feels like a nonevent and Strays looks closer to another Happytime Murders than another Ted).

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Vol 2 was tracking at 150M https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/guardians-galaxy-vol-2-tracking-galactical-150m-us-debut-993727/

Ah my bad. In my defense though Deadline was talking up $160M as a high end close to release

https://deadline.com/2017/05/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-domestic-box-office-opening-disney-1202081877/

[Krissykins]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Universal actually had a good winning streak going on since December (Violent Night, Puss in Boots, M3GAN, Knock at the Cabin, Cocaine Bear, and of course Mario). Guess it had to end at some point, though their summer looks very unsure aside from Fast X and wild card Oppenheimer (Ruby Gillman feels like a nonevent and Strays looks closer to another Happytime Murders than another Ted).

I don’t think Knock at the Cabin deserves to be included there. It underperformed for sure. Everywhere. 

[TheFlatLannister]

RENFIELD 

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
42	635	5347	11.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 2:00pm EST}

 

*1 New Showings added Since Yesterday

*127 Seats Sold Since Yesterday

 

 

Comps (R rated films):

Air T-0 (1.038x) ~$2M previews

 

Sticking with my $1.5M-$2M THUR prediction 

 

Thinking low to mid teens

$11M-$15M

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I don’t think Knock at the Cabin deserves to be included there. It underperformed for sure. Everywhere. 

It still turned a profit in theaters given how cheap it was. $54M worldwide against a $20M budget. Not a blockbuster but not a money loser (which Renfield is looking to be) either.

[The Wild Eric]

Felt like they never knew how to sell Renfield to people. Either the trailers pushed it as a horror comedy, an action comedy, or a comedy comedy, and the only hook is "look, Nicolas Cage is Dracula", which just doesn't work. Nicolas Cage memes haven't been relevant in ages. Hopefully the other Universal Monster movies down the pipeline have stronger hooks.

[kayumanggi]

 

[el sid]

Renfield, counted today (at the same time as The Pope's Exorcist) for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 78 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 25 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 10 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 20 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 80 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 174 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 393.

Up rather modest 24.5% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): Zombieland 2 (2.85M from previews) had 927 sold tickets,
Violent Night (1.1M) had 270,
Bob's Burgers (1.5M) had 477
and Cocaine Bear (2M) had 783 sold tickets.

1M from previews sounds right.

Renfield, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 72 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 10 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 11 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 15 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 15 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 92 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 142 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 357.

Up ok 33% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Friday): Zombieland 2 (26.8M) had 902 sold tickets,
Free Guy (28.4M) had 624,
Bob's Burgers (12.4M) had 487;
Violent Night (13.5M) had 309,
Cocaine Bear (23.1M) had 584
and Massive Talent (7.1M) had 440 sold tickets (I think this was more of a niche film than Renfield).

The jumps could have been bigger but I still „predict“ mid-teens judging from my comps and because of the ok reviews and trailer.

[The Wild Eric]

On 4/12/2023 at 4:30 AM, Count Eric said:

The Pope's Exorcist Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	58	3956	1.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp - T-2

0.624x of X (274K)

1.000x of Firestarter (375K)

0.586x of Men (248K)

0.853x of The Invitation (661K)

0.439x of Barbarian (373K)

0.967x of Prey for the Devil (638K)

The Pope's Exorcist Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	64	3956	1.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp - T-1

0.529x of X (233K)

0.853x of Firestarter (320K)

0.467x of Men (198K)

0.615x of The Invitation (477K)

0.242x of Barbarian (206K)

0.753x of Prey for the Devil (497K)

[The Wild Eric]

On 4/12/2023 at 4:41 AM, Count Eric said:

Renfield Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	209	5149	4.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp - T-2

0.427x of The Black Phone (1.28M)

1.583x of Barbarian (1.35M)

0.418x of Smile (836K)

1.035x of Violent Night (1.14M)

0.659x of M3GAN (1.81M)

0.661x of Knock at the Cabin (959K)

0.786x of Cocaine Bear (1.57M)

Renfield Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	45	278	5149	5.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 69

 

Comp - T-1

0.378x of The Black Phone (1.13M)

1.053x of Barbarian (895K)

0.490x of Smile (980K)

1.086x of Violent Night (1.19M)

0.570x of M3GAN (1.57M)

0.676x of Knock at the Cabin (981K)

0.797x of Cocaine Bear (1.59M)

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

The Pope's Exorcist

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
28	163	2477	6.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 8:00pm EST}

 

^{Comparison: Renfield sold 508 tickets at today's 10:00am check}  

^{(0.321x) of Renfield} 

  

The Pope's Exorcist

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

T-0

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
31	264	2912	9.1%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST}

 

*3 New Showings Added

*101 Seats Sold 

 

^{Comp: Renfield had 635 tickets sold in todays check}

^{(0.416x) of Renfield}

 

Assuming Renfield does $1.5-$2M that gets The Pope's Exorcist to:

$620K-$830K for THUR 

Edited April 13, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[The Wild Eric]

On 4/12/2023 at 4:54 AM, Count Eric said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2751	39919	6.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 52

 

Comp - T-23

2.156x of Black Widow (28.46M)

2.977x of Eternals (28.28M)

0.337x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.15M)

0.671x of Thor 4 (19.47M)

0.481x of Black Panther 2 (13.46M)

0.799x of Ant-Man 3 (13.99M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2785	39919	6.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 34

 

Comp - T-22

2.069x of Black Widow (27.31M)

2.782x of Eternals (26.43M)

0.335x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.06M)

0.660x of Thor 4 (19.15M)

0.477x of Black Panther 2 (13.34M)

0.794x of Ant-Man 3 (13.9M)

[The Wild Eric]

On 4/12/2023 at 5:00 AM, Count Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-37 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	418	17734	2.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp - T-37

0.448x of Jurassic World: Dominion (8.06M)

3.835x of Nope (24.54M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-36 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	418	17734	2.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp - T-36

0.438x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.89M)

3.870x of Nope (24.77M)

[kayumanggi]

 

[Krissykins]

39 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It still turned a profit in theaters given how cheap it was. $54M worldwide against a $20M budget. Not a blockbuster but not a money loser (which Renfield is looking to be) either.

Yeh I remember the budget being $20m, but I think “win” is a strong word for it. Missed expectations by about $10m on opening weekend, lowest ever for the director in both America and overseas. Context, I guess. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[keysersoze123]

On 4/10/2023 at 12:39 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Looking at this week's release. 

MTC1 previews

Renfield - 7343/112846 103653.71 916 shows

Suzume - 9852/125213 164298.84 850 shows

 

Suzume will be frontloaded. So I expect Renfield to have bigger previews/OW. 

MTC1 previews

Renfield - 14411/130357 202535.29 1072 shows

Suzume - 15144/154429 248802.60 1058 shows

 

Presales have grown at anemic levels. Let us see how walkups go but I am not seeing more than 1m for either movie. Renfield will probably squeak ahead in ticket sales but Suzume has Imax shows and so could still gross a tad more.

[TheFlatLannister]

accidental repost 

 

I'm seeing $600K-800K for Pope which feels pretty low. Maybe a $5M weekend? 

Edited April 13, 2023 by TheFlatLannister