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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread

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THE BOX OFFICE BUZZ AND TRACKING THREAD

 

 

As we near 2500+ pages in The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo, the mods have decided to close that thread out and start anew.  It's now PINNED in the Numbers & Data Sub-Forum located in the Speakeasy.

 

Also for Quick References to the Old Thread:

 

Bonus Links:

 

 ADMIN NOTE:

 

This thread is for numbers and data. Please, post your theater updates and comparable data here. And please, talk about that comparable data here. 
 

If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, particularly if it's not your own data you collected, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in question. The quote button is your friend.  
 

That way hopefully we can not clutter up this thread, and then people can continue to have whatever discussion they want freely elsewhere.

 

Thank you,

The Mod Squad

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USEFUL INFO

 

TERMINOLOGY

 

On 4/3/2017 at 9:40 AM, baumer said:

Multiplier:  A multiplier for a film is when you take the opening weekend gross and divide it into the final domestic gross.  So for an example; The Force Awakens opened to 247.9 million and closed with 936.6 million.  That gave it a multiplier of 3.78.  

 

Internal multiplier:  This is the kind of concept but it is for the opening weekend only.  The internal multiplier is the opening day gross (including preview numbers) divided into the final gross for the weekend.  So for example:  The Force Awakens had an opening day of 119.1 and ended the weekend with 247 million.  That's an internal multiplier of 2.07.    Another example would be the Jungle Book.  It opened to 32 million on Friday and ended the weekend with 103.2 million.  That was good for a 3.2X.  One was front loaded, the other was back loaded.

 

Front loaded:  This is when a film seems to have a massive rush to see it opening weekend but then fizzles out a little faster than a film that is not front loaded.  Being front loaded often carries a negative connotation but this isn't entirely true.  Franchise films, especially sequels, have a lot of upfront demand.  Films like Harry Potter and Twilight were massively front loaded.  This can be attributed to their loonie fan base rushing out to see it as soon as they can.  Other times, a front loaded film can simply be because of negative word of mouth (WOM).  For example Batman vs Superman opened very strongly to 166 million and finished with a pathetic 330 million.  This was attributed to the poor WOM it had and because of it, it only managed a 1.99X, which is absolutely horrible.  

 

Cheap Tuesdays:  This is a phenomenon that started in the 1980's (if I remember correctly).  It then fizzled out and now it is back stronger than ever.  Tuesday's have gotten bigger and bigger every year for about the last 4 years.  This is when a theater will offer a movie at either half the regular price or at least discounted in some way.  This causes big spikes in Tuesday business compared to Monday and then it also causes big drops on Wednesday.  Of course, this isn't always the case....there are always caveats to anything.  One really interesting anomaly to the cheap Tuesday spike was when The Force Awakens was in it's first and second week.  Because the film was in such high demand, people were seeing it in record numbers every day of the week.  So on the first tow Tuesdays, because the tickets were so cheap, TFA actually dropped 7 and 5% respectively in week one and two.  While other films were dropping on the Wednesday, TFA actually increased by about 2% on teh first Wednesday.  TFA was a lot of fun to track and follow.

 

Our Current Third Purple Asgardians are Rth, EmpireCity, and Jat.  We don't know who they work for and we don't ask.  When you see the name ASGARD in the title of a thread, that means them.  The title is always with Asgard or Asgard 2, or Asgard 3.

 

Other sources are boxoffice.com, boxofficemojo.com, boxofficeguru.com, deadline.com, the-numbers.com.  All of these are excellent sources of news and/or numbers but keep in mind, they have to get their numbers from a source, RTH and EMPIRE are the source.  

 

Summer vs non summer:  In the summer, because everyone is out of school, the weekdays will obviously be much stronger than when kids are not in school.  This also means that the Friday increases will be much softer.  In the winter and spring and fall, you will see Friday increases that range from about 100-150%.  For films that have families as their main demographic, you might even see a 175-225% increase.  In the summer, you will see smaller Friday bumps that range from about 25% to about 65%.  This goes on for the duration of the summer...from about the end of June to the middle of August.  Once schools start up again, the Friday increases get bigger and bigger.

 

Original film or property:  A film that has no pre-existing material to it.  The Hobbit, Star Wars, Jurassic World, Beauty and the Beast are all examples of films with pre-existing material to it.  La La Land, Get Out and Life are examples of original films.

 

Holiday Mondays:  Often we have four day weekends.  This can be Easter (about 40% of the US and Canada have Easter Monday off), Independence Day Weekend, Memorial Weekend and Labour Day Weekend to name a few.  These are Monday's when the drops will be less than normal because a lot of kids are out of school and adults aren't working.  This also softens the Sunday drop and it causes Tuesday to see decreases instead of increases.

 

The domestic box office consists of both the US and Canadian markets.  There is never a split or breakdown between the two countries and currently no website keeps track of Canadian only numbers.  Generally speaking, Canada accounts for about 9% of the domestic box office.  There are anomalies for this as well.  For example, Return of the King grossed 377 million in domestic box office.  60 million of that came from Canada...meaning about 15% of the gross came from my home and native land.  Fantasy tends to do well here...horror and many films aimed at a black audience, for some reason doesn't do well here.  I might be the only white person in Canada who loves the Madea films.

 

The main forum is for all domestic box-office discussion, and it's a place to not only talk about the daily numbers as they come in, but also news about movies that've been released or are in production. Generally speaking, the main forum is not a place for spoiler discussion. Any sort of specific details about a movie that isn't out on home video should be spoiler-tagged (you can do this by either clicking on the eye icon in the posting menu or by typing [ spoiler ] whatever you want to say [/ spoiler] (without the spaces in the brackets).

 

The Numbers and Data forum is read-only for members. This is where we archive all daily and weekend number threads, both to keep the main forum tidy, but also to keep really old threads from getting bumped and confusing people. It's a great place to go if you want to check how the numbers came in on a particular day, or if you want to find an epic thread where people flipped out. Number threads get moved here a day or two after they're started. (So a weekend thread will get moved on Tuesday, for example.)

 

 

HOW TO READ THIS THREAD

from @Porthos in the previous Tracking Thread:

 

 

Quote


On 11/15/2021 at 9:37 AM, CenterMeOnSam said:

Can anyone explain to me these numbers and how I should be reading them? I feel like I need a PDF of instructions hahaha. 

 

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.

 

But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.

 

Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV campaigns, fan events, and so on) and even films in similar genres can be difficult to look at just the comp.

 

Anywho to give one of my recent ones as an example:

 

On 11/15/2021 at 2:14 AM, Porthos said:

T-4 Unadjusted Comp

 

   %

 

Sold Day T-4

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

TSS

132.49

 

141

751

 

0/87

14373/15124

4.97%

 

5.43m

SC

41.35

 

261

2406

 

0/113

15205/17611

13.66%

 

3.64m

V2

40.43

 

453

2461

 

0/183

26301/28762

8.56%

 

4.69m

NTTD

58.43

 

157

1703

 

0/145

20757/22460

6.89%

 

3.62m

 

 

This is saying that Ghostbusters: Afterlife has sold 32% more tickets than The Suicide Squad  did at this point in its sales.  If it continued to sell 32% more tickets each and every day until the end, the preview number would be 5.43m.

 

On the other hand, it's also saying that G:A has sold 41% of the tickets that Shang-Chi had at this point, which if it repeated that would point to 3.64m in previews.

 

And so on and so on.

 

For a film like Ghostbusters: Afterlife where we probably don't have a great comp (comedies usually have folks buy their tickets close to release BUT this is a property that is heavily nostalgia based with a turbulent recent history), a lot of us are just using a bunch of different recent movies to try to nail down an upper and lower range.

 

As we get closer to release, that range will narrow and on the actual day of release we should have a pretty decent idea of where this will land.

 

Other folks format their reports differently but nearly all of us do some version of "Comped movie had sold X amount of tickets at that point in time which would mean Y amount of dollars for this film".  Everything else is just nerdy details for the more obsessive folks here who like the extra information. :)

 

Hope this helps explain some of the things.

 

 

 

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SCREAM GREATER PHILADELPHIA AREA SEAT REPORT - ONGOING

Tracking by @Eric Smith

 

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 23 75 5107 1.47%

 

 

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 135 6254 2.16%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 1,147

Total Seats Sold Today: 60

 

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 163 6254 2.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 200 6254 3.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 19

 

I messed up and forgot to post yesterday, though I did track that day and got about 18 sales. So don't worry about me forgetting. Comps are coming tomorrow, but they won't really mean much of anything this far off. *shrug*

 

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 215 6254 3.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

6.719x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-22 (130.13M)

15.357x of The Conjuring 3 T-22 (150.58M)

 

So yeah, you probably understand why I said comps tomorrow will still be useless. :lol: At the very least, this will probably give you guys a good laugh before it comes down to earth over the next few days.

 

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 231 6254 3.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 16

 

Comp

1.540x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-21 (29.83M)

10.043x of The Conjuring 3 T-21 (98.48M)

 

So to clarify, the reason why Quiet Place 2 dropped so hard was because tickets went on sale one day before they were officially announced on Paramount's social medias, meaning it had a massive 118-ticket jump. I have zero clue why Paramount/theaters put up tickets the day before the official announcement, but you can see why there was such a big boost. And...yeah, expect things to crumble down just a bit more over the next few days. :lol: 

 

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 238 6254 3.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 7

 

Comp

1.315x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-20 (25.47M)

6.263x of The Conjuring 3 T-20 (61.41M)

 

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 238 6254 3.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 0

 

Comp

1.144x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-19 (22.16M)

4.958x of The Conjuring 3 T-19 (48.62M)

 

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 243 6254 3.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 5

 

Comp

1.012x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-18 (19.61M)

4.860x of The Conjuring 3 T-18 (47.65M)

 

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 249 6254 3.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.929x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-17 (17.99M)

4.527x of The Conjuring 3 T-17 (44.39M)

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17 hours ago, el sid said:

Out of curiosity (I can't help doing it ;)) and because it only takes a few minutes:
 

Scream had today 502 sold tickets for Thursday, Jan 13 (14 days to go).
Comps: The Forever Purge had on Thursday for Thursday (= 0 days left) 241 sold tickets,
Halloween Kills had 9 days before 315 sold tickets for Thursday

and AQP II had also 9 days before 402 sold tickets for Thursday.
Both HK and AQP II had good jumps in their last week and to stay on that level Scream would need nice increases in a week but so far the presales for Scream look good in my theaters. Additionally e.g. in the AMC in LA 7 showtimes were added (from 2 to 9).

And for Friday, Jan 14 (15 days to go) it has today 205 sold tickets.
Comp: Halloween Kills had 10 days before 353 sold tickets for Friday.

 

15 hours ago, Eric Smith said:

Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 284 6254 4.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

0.763x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-14 (14.79M)

3.595x of The Conjuring 3 T-14 (35.25M)

 

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

US showtime sample 12/31 weekend

 

Movie Theaters Shows Change Standard PLF IMAX
Spider-Man 3,515 98,882 8.55% 84,401 14,481 3,541
Sing 2 3,353 59,339 6.03% 57,673 1,666 0
Matrix 4 3,046 34,728 -10.51% 33,898 830 0
King's Man 2,834 30,696 2.61% 30,606 90 0
American Underdog 2,655 30,374 23.14% 30,303 71 0
Journal for Jordan 2,077 21,665 10.69% 21,628 37 0
West Side Story 2,368 17,002 -3.02% 16,978 24 0
Encanto 2,053 15,211 -20.78% 15,176 35 0
Nightmare Alley 1,681 9,484 -30.03% 9,463 21 0
Ghostbusters:Afterlife 1,436 9,148 29.98% 9,137 11 0
Licorice Pizza 746 8,105 13.14% 8,105 0 0
House of Gucci 518 2,937 22.02% 2,937 0 0
83 392 2,927 -15.94% 2,927 0 0
Tragedy of Macbeth 200 2,062   2,062 0 0
Red Rocket 372 1,944 -41.81% 1,944 0 0
Shyam Singha Roy 194 1,216 -11.37% 1,216 0 0
Eternals 141 652 -26.82% 652 0 0
Clifford 68 494 1.65% 494 0 0

 

Future releases

 

T-1 Week

The 355 - 21,633 (1,838)

RRR - 10,696 (726)

*RRR has 87 IMAX shows listed, 81 of which are on Thursday

 

T-2 Week Previews

Belle - 1,289 (786)

Scream - 4,141 (1,945)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Redeeming Love - 1,403 (1,033)

 

Morbius shows are just starting to populate.  I'm seeing shows for about 250 theaters so far so I'll hold off on those counts for another week.

 

OW showtime comps for future releases at same point in time

The 355 - 21,633 (1,838)

 - Last Night in Soho - 20,306 (1,787)

 - Many Saints of Newark - 18,302 (1,823)

 - House of Gucci - 19,223 (1,835)

 - King Richard - 18.783 (1,835)

 

RRR - 10,696 (726)

 - National Champions - 10,875 (911)

 - Show Me the Father - 9.066 (776)

 - Spencer - 8,816 (703)

 

Preview showtime comps

Belle - 1,289 (786)

 - Ron's Gone Wrong - 1,353 (863)

 - West Side Story - 1,507 (613)

 

Scream - 4,141 (1,945)

 - Halloween Kills - 2,694 (1,368)

 - Addams Family - 3,759 (1,429)

 - Nightmare Alley - 4,252 (1,733)

 

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Scream Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 27 297 6254 4.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

 

Comp

0.739x of A Quiet Place Part II Thu+Fri T-13 (14.31M)

3.536x of The Conjuring 3 T-13 (34.67M)

1.049x of Halloween Kills T-13 (5.09M)

 

Yay, a new comp!

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6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I just saw that Morbius is gonna be starting at 3:00 that Thursday. lmao how are these really early launches not counting for a whole new opening day?

This is just getting dumb now

Spoiler

They should start at 10 AM Th, what is wrong with Sony 😔

 

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1 hour ago, Krissykins said:


Why were tickets $37 for this? 

The distribution is informal than Bollywood films, so you had people living in US buying the film from producers to release. For recovering the price, tickets were high.

 

Bollywood got more formal in time with studios coming, South remained bit informal and continued with higher tickets.

 

And now the prices distributors buy film are so high, they have to charge higher tickets. 

 

Anyways the film is postponed. So all of it will be refunded.

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