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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Haven't gotten any confirmation on what the Monday Mystery Movie on April 3rd is yet, but all signs are pointing to Mafia Mamma.

 

It can't be Air since Regal Gallery Place Stadium 14 did an early screening of it today (not to mention it would make no sense to do it 2 days before release), they wouldn't do The Pope's Exorcist since it's a horror movie and they wouldn't do Renfield since that already has hype.

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On 3/22/2023 at 11:14 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Megaplex

 

T-14 Wednesday(144 showings): 2497/45926

 

T-15 Thursday(145 showings): 680/46228

 

T-16 Friday(146 showings): 1297/46546

 

T-17 Saturday(148 showings): 1674/47238

 

Not sure what to do with the comp situation here. Maybe compare Wed+Thurs to other movies' Thurs+Fri? And just compare Friday and Saturday normally? I don't know, don't feel like figuring it out today

Mario Megaplex [+6 days of sales]

 

T-8 Wednesday(167 showings): 4099(+1602)/53071

 

T-9 Thursday(157 showings): 1275(+595)/49710

0.561x Thor L&T Thurs+Fri (39.00M)*

0.914x Ant-Man 3 Thurs+Fri (42.43M)*

 

T-10 Friday(163 showings): 2097(+800)/51694

0.895x Ant-Man 3 T-10 (25.90M)

0.678x Thor L&T T-10 (27.49M)

 

T-11 Saturday(165 showings): 2356(+682)/52746

1.40x Ant-Man 3 T-11 (47.60M)

1.45x Thor L&T T-11 (61.17M)

 

Data posted tonight is from about 5 hours ago.

 

*Comping Mario Wed+Thurs

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8 hours ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 98 1860 16863 11.03%

 

Comp - T-3

0.808x of Shang-Chi (7.11M)

1.057x of Venom 2 (12.27M)

1.774x of Ghosbusters: Afterlife (7.99M)

3.321x of Uncharted (12.29M)

3.591x of The Lost City (11.67M)

1.453x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.72M)

0.607x of Top Gun 2 (11.69M)

0.598x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.76M)

1.162x of Black Adam (8.83M)

3.811x of Shazam 2 (12.96M)

 

Comps should largely go down for the next couple days since this is being inflated by sneak previews, but this is still cool stuff I guess.

Were you privately tracking all the early access shows ?

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On 3/22/2023 at 11:16 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Mario Drafthouse

 

T-14 Wednesday(154 showings): 3614/25504

 

T-15 Thursday(155 showings): 2037/25830

 

T-16 Friday(175 showings): 4680/28455

 

T-17 Saturday(181 showings): 5369/29120

 

ATP doesn't wanna work for Mario

Mario Drafthouse [+6 days of sales]

 

T-8 Wednesday(192 showings): 5305(+1489)/31277

 

T-9 Thursday(187 showings): 3258(+1029)/30534

 

T-10 Friday(196 showings): 6842(+1836)/31157

 

T-11 Saturday(204 showings): 7239(+1710)/32385

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14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dungeons and Dragons 

MTC2 Mar 29 - 3322/22888 52079.75 115 shows

MTC2 Prev - 14166/283408 193667.65 1737 shows

 

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dungeons and Dragons Honor Among Thieves MTC1

March 29 - 11194/37067 217798.21 173 shows

Previews - 25291/434463 418575.07 2209 shows 

D&D

MTC1 Mar 29 - 13832/37337 267727.34 179 shows

MTC1 Previews - 29725/493131 488502.51 2687 shows

MTC2 Mar 29 - 4125/22963 64469.75 15 shows

MTC2 Previews -  16930/372950 228650.87 2560 shows

 

Growth is bit meh. but having so many early shows does impact thursday growth. 

 

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15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mario MTC1 midnights - 2826/24381 65785.42 115 shows

Mario MTC1 OD - 76056/871539 1254790.40 4402 shows

Mario MTC1

Midnights - 3078/24252 71291.00 114 shows

OD - 82254/1022959 1350310.66 5504 shows

 

Good boost today.  My expectation is presales to be > 2x of this by tuesday night next week. 

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13 hours ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 98 1860 16863 11.03%

 

Comp - T-3

0.808x of Shang-Chi (7.11M)

1.057x of Venom 2 (12.27M)

1.774x of Ghosbusters: Afterlife (7.99M)

3.321x of Uncharted (12.29M)

3.591x of The Lost City (11.67M)

1.453x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.72M)

0.607x of Top Gun 2 (11.69M)

0.598x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.76M)

1.162x of Black Adam (8.83M)

3.811x of Shazam 2 (12.96M)

 

Comps should largely go down for the next couple days since this is being inflated by sneak previews, but this is still cool stuff I guess.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 112 1992 18634 10.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 132

 

Comp - T-2

0.758x of Shang-Chi (6.67M)

0.921x of Venom 2 (10.68M)

1.544x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (6.95M)

2.883x of Uncharted (10.67M)

2.947x of The Lost City (9.58M)

1.346x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.08M)

0.553x of Top Gun 2 (10.66M)

0.569x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.24M)

1.034x of Black Adam (7.86M)

3.615x of Shazam 2 (12.29M)

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13 hours ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 159 2212 31960 6.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 170

 

Comp - T-9

1.219x of Sing 2 (11.86M)

3.297x of Sonic 2 (20.6M)

12.022x of Lightyear (62.51M)

9.659x of Minions 2 (103.84M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 210 2462 40562 6.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 250

 

Comp - T-8

1.306x of Sing 2 (12.71M)

3.391x of Sonic 2 (21.19M)

9.433x of Lightyear (49.05M)

9.731x of Minions 2 (104.61M)

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1 hour ago, Eric is Norlar Aver said:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 112 1992 18634 10.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 132

 

Comp - T-2

0.758x of Shang-Chi (6.67M)

0.921x of Venom 2 (10.68M)

1.544x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (6.95M)

2.883x of Uncharted (10.67M)

2.947x of The Lost City (9.58M)

1.346x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (8.08M)

0.553x of Top Gun 2 (10.66M)

0.569x of Jurassic World: Dominion (10.24M)

1.034x of Black Adam (7.86M)

3.615x of Shazam 2 (12.29M)

 

Those comps are quite impressive. I suppose it's because early shows. Should we expect 6M+ previews adding all the EA?

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Dungeons and Dragons

Thurs Mar 30 Fri Mar 31 (T-2)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

    # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Toronto Thurs 4 15 239 3819 4058 0.0588
  Fri 4 32 319 5228 8647 0.0368
Montreal   # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
  Thurs 3 11 221 3151 3372 0.0655
  Fri 3 23 396 7005 7401 0.0535

 

Comparison for Antman Quantumania T-2

 

  T2 # theatre #show   Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Toronto Thurs 4 36 2518 7614 10132 0.2485
  Fri 4 37 2248 7288 9536 0.2357
               
    # theatre #show Seats Sold Seats Rem Ttl seat Percent
Montreal Thurs 4 29 1294 6783 8077 0.1602
  Fri 4 23 1078 5219 6297 0.1711

 

 

Seems like holdovers for John Wick taking up IMAX and similar screens as Friday hasn't had the massive jump in showings compared to previous movies-there are more showings, but not huge amount more.  Also note that Montreal has one less theatre compared to Antman-theres one theatre that for a couple of films now hasn't had presales available-again the quirkiness of Cineplex.

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22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

 

Greater Orlando Region

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

52

1071

11033

9.7%

*numbers taken at approx. 1:30pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-2 : 152

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-2: 7

 

Strong 24 hours of presales. Lots of new showings added at Disney Springs AMC 

 

COMPS:

JOHN WICK 4 - (0.2977x) $2.6M THUR

SCREAM VI - (0.801x) $4.6M THUR 

 

So $3M-$5M Thursday 

 

Assuming $1M from Amazon Previews and Wednesday showings...I would say $4M-$6M all previews and ~$35M-$45M OW 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

 

Greater Orlando Region

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

 

T-0

Final update

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

68

1242

13186

9.4%

*numbers taken at approx. 12:00pm EST

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-1 : 171

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-1: 16

 

 

COMPS:

JOHN WICK 4 - (0.3453x) $3.1M THUR

SCREAM VI - (0.9296x) $5.3M THUR 

 

Yeah I would stick with $3M-$5M Thursday 

With all EA included $4M-$6M

 

Going down to $30M-$40M OW after looking at outside rural chains.

 

Prediction: $36M OW

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Quorum Updates

Mafia Mamma T-16: 25.22% Awareness, 5.22 Interest

Renfield T-16: 30.32%, 5.33

Beau is Afraid T-23: 12.09%, 4.72

The Covenant T-23: 27.19%, 5.34

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-233: 37.42%, 5.99

Trolls Band Together T-233: 35.95%, 4.94

 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-2: 48.61% Awareness, 5.31 Interest

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 42% chance of 10M, 13% chance of 20M, 6% chance of 30M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 30M, 33% chance of 40M

 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret T-30: 20.96% Awareness, 5.08 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 62% chance of 10M 

T-30 Interest: 53% chance of 10M

Known IP Interest: 100% chance of 10M

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 T-37: 55.33% Awareness, 6.5 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 40% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 80% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 33% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

About My Father T-58: 20.78% Awareness, 5.2 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 71% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 80% chance of 5M, 40% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 71% chance of 5M, 57% chance of 10M

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9 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

 

Sounds right. I'm thinking it will end somewhere in the middle. It's the international start of like $25M that's more concerning.

Oof yeah that International opening would be disastrous. Hopefully that's just a complete lowball

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Dungeons & Dragons, counted today for Thursday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 125 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 88 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 58 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 37 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 53 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 284 (10 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 282 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 925

 

Up modest 13% since yesterday.

Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): The Lost City (2.5M from previews) had 520 sold tickets,
and Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.062
and SC (8.8M) had 3.166 sold tickets.
 

Dungeons & Dragons, counted today for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 182 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 113 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 82 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 33 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 53 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 270 (11 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 251 (13 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 984

 

Up good 30% since yesterday.

Comps (all three films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Snake Eyes (13.4M OW) had 590 sold tickets (but only a small jump till Thursday),
The Lost City (30.5M) had 519
and Uncharted (44M) had 982 sold tickets.
 

That was a strange counting today. First I was disappointed when I saw the Thursday jump because - as you can see - in my theaters it doesn't look like D&D will reach 5M at the moment. But then the Friday jump was (way) better than expected. Yesterday I said that D&D could reach the Friday presales of Uncharted (11.7M true Friday) but that it is unlikely. But it managed it. So still 40M on the cards?

Edited by el sid
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I'm looking back in this thread to see where tracking and general mood was for Uncharted a year ago, one or two days before it opened. I figure that might be the best example to use to measure potential walkups.

 

General consensus in this thread was that it would open to about $3M, on the way to about $30M on the three day. Some were higher, some were lower. Deadline was saying in the $30Ms in their prediction. Box office pro had $30.7M for the three day.

 

Final result was $3.7M against a $44M three day.

 

I figure the two are probably decent comparables. IP based, but relatively weak IP, and similar action/comedy tone. Not a guarantee or anything, but, I wanted to at least dig into a recent strong walk up performance to see what's possible.

 

If I had more time, other ones I'd be inclined to review is Elvis or Ghostbusters Afterlife. Films that were unexpectedly good in this mid range.

 

Edit: I looked up Box office pro estimates for Ghostbusters Afterlife and Elvis. GBA was spot on at $44M. Elvis was overestimated at $38M to $31M, so, that shows the other side. Being better than audiences expect doesn't always trigger a big OW walk-up effect.

Edited by vafrow
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