The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[DAJK]

Scream was pretty solid here but not quite as strong as I was anticipating based on some early sales/indications.

 

79% of Halloween Kills - 3.87M

188% Candyman - 3.58M

280% Don't Breathe 2 - 2.70M

 

The Don't Breathe comp is a little discouraging, but it also was a summer opener when Thursday previews tend to be stronger relative to the weekend. I'm not looking too closely at pre-covid comps, but they all suggest 3-4.5M in that range. I kind of like my HK comparison, since it seems to be relatively standard at a handful of theatres I've been able to quickly look at outside of my local area. 

 

So I'm going to go with 3.9M for now. Happy Screaming y'all!

[Shawn Robbins]

6 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said:

BOP going way low on Scream

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	4-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Monday, January 17	Location Count	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Scream (2022)	Paramount Pictures	$29,800,000	$33,700,000	$33,700,000	3,664	NEW
Spider-Man: No Way Home	Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios	$19,900,000	$24,900,000	$702,800,000	3,925	-39%
Sing 2	Universal Pictures	$8,700,000	$11,700,000	$122,700,000	3,581	-25%
The 355	Universal Pictures	$2,000,000	$2,300,000	$8,400,000	3,145	-57%
The King’s Man	Disney / 20th Century Studios	$1,900,000	$2,300,000	$28,700,000	2,510	-41%
American Underdog	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company	$1,700,000	$2,000,000	$21,500,000	2,394	-27%
West Side Story (2021)	Disney / 20th Century Studios	$1,100,000	$1,400,000	$34,200,000	1,460	-20%
The Matrix Resurrections	Warner Bros. Pictures	$925,000	$1,100,000	$36,100,000	1,725	-50%
Licorice Pizza	United Artists Releasing	$800,000	$1,000,000	$9,700,000	772	-19%
Ghostbusters: Afterlife	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$725,000	$900,000	$126,300,000	1,202	-35%

 

But I think this is the first time they’ve offered 3day and 4day for all movies? Like that change a lot @Shawn 👍

Thanks re: the latter. 👍

 

We're 36% higher than the studio number, so I'm not sure I'd agree that's "way" low.

 

I *hope* it's low because that'll be good news for theaters and the filmmakers and movie fans, but based on the models I've seen (both our own and others'), I'm equally concerned we could be too high as I am that we could be too conservative. Low 30s is a fair middle ground based on the cumulative data points and historical comps. The question now is just which set of data points win out and I'm not convinced any of them have significantly stronger arguments than the next. 

 

This is always the case on forecasts, but I'd highly encourage everyone to read the full analysis which contextualizes the ranges and pinpoint forecast that were settled on.

[Legion Again]

38 minutes ago, Shawn said:

We're 36% higher than the studio number, so I'm not sure I'd agree that's "way" low.

Studio estimates are worse than useless imo — they seek to set low “expectations” to “beat” rather than inform what’s likely in reality. An infamous recent example being Sony lowballing NWH by 130M! If a studio felt like setting their number at 40% of what’s reasonable, you could be +75% it and still way low in my book.
 

I have read the full writeup, but I think the past year or so shows that sales should be weighted really heavily. This reminds me of a couple other recent OWs where it was abundantly clear from the data in this thread (and historical/genre/reception/etc considerations on the internal multi) that a movie was going to open way higher (or lower) than the range at some other places, which I can only assume means that nonsales based models were dragging the average in the wrong direction. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Scream 5	3,326	85,504	77,956	7,548	0	0
Spider-Man	3,386	63,780	58,398	5,382	3,189	1,045
Sing 2	3,224	42,426	42,164	262	0	132
The 355	2,925	31,737	31,511	226	0	0
The King's Man	2,321	24,175	24,128	47	0	0
American Underdog	2,229	21,172	21,141	31	0	0
Belle	1,313	16,995	16,443	552	539	0
Matrix Resurrections	1,464	9,751	9,746	5	0	0
Venom 2	1,382	9,373	9,296	77	0	66
Ghostbusters	1,122	8,426	8,414	12	0	0
West Side Story	1,263	8,212	8,191	21	0	0
House of Gucci	1,203	7,642	7,642	0	0	0
Licorice Pizza	733	7,166	7,166	0	0	0
Encanto	507	3,351	3,351	0	0	0
Journal for Jordan	517	3,240	3,234	6	0	0
Nightmare Alley	481	2,769	2,759	10	0	0
The Tragedy of Macbeth	291	2,392	2,392	0	0	0
Bangarraju	224	1,929	1,929	0	0	0
King Richard	262	1,166	1,166	0	0	0
Parallel Mothers	50	576	576	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample 1/14/22 weekend.  Missed last week so no change numbers.  

 

Scream 5 OW shows comps

Halloween Kills - 92,661

Dune - 82,661

Candyman - 74,146

 

T-1 week

Redeeming Love - 13,519 (1,317 TC)

King's Daughter - 10,270 (815 TC)

[XXR vs XXR]

‘Scream’ Hits $3.5M In Thursday Night Previews
 

https://deadline.com/2022/01/scream-spider-man-weekend-box-office-mlk-1234912797/

Edited January 14, 2022 by RiddlerXXR

[Inceptionzq]

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Scream Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Friday(237 showings): 5328(+1107)/31220

ATP: $14.21

Scream Alamo Drafthouse Friday(237 showings)

 

6535(+1207)/31220

ATP: $14.14

 

Halloween Kills comp: 15.93M

 

Like I was saying yesterday, the comp is probably inflated from restrictions back in October. A lot of Drafthouse theaters, perhaps even all of them I don't remember, still had capacity limits and reduced hours.

[Inceptionzq]

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Scream Megaplex

 

T-1 days Friday(89 showings): 707(+187)/20608(+976) in 15 theaters

Halloween Kills T-1 comp: 12.18M

Scream Megaplex Friday(89 showings)

 

950(+243)/20608 in 15 theaters

Halloween Kills comp: 11.89M

 

This comp will likely be much closer to what today ends up as than Drafthouse

[Shawn Robbins]

8 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Studio estimates are worse than useless imo — they seek to set low “expectations” to “beat” rather than inform what’s likely in reality. An infamous recent example being Sony lowballing NWH by 130M! If a studio felt like setting their number at 40% of what’s reasonable, you could be +75% it and still way low in my book.
 

I have read the full writeup, but I think the past year or so shows that sales should be weighted really heavily. This reminds me of a couple other recent OWs where it was abundantly clear from the data in this thread (and historical/genre/reception/etc considerations on the internal multi) that a movie was going to open way higher (or lower) than the range at some other places, which I can only assume means that nonsales based models were dragging the average in the wrong direction. 

The models I'm referring to include sales, including a few sales-exclusive models.

 

I've seen some of the data I presume you're talking about it and it has both under- and over-estimated recently. That's just the nature of everyone's models over time, independent or otherwise. There isn't a perfect science.

 

FWIW, $3.5M Thursday was slightly below our final projection as a share of the whole weekend. 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Shawn said:

The models I'm referring to include sales, including a few sales-exclusive models.

 

I've seen some of the data I presume you're talking about it and it has both under- and over-estimated recently. That's just the nature of everyone's models over time, independent or otherwise. There isn't a perfect science.

 

FWIW, $3.5M Thursday was slightly below our final projection as a share of the whole weekend. 

Daayyuumm @Product Driven Legion he just said you’re dumb and need to piss off. You gonna take that?!? You know if you smite him, you get to take title of Founder / Operator. Don’t research that, just believe me.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

You know if you smite him, you get to take title of Founder / Operator.

One of these sounds kinda fun, but the other sounds like it could be a hassle. Don’t think I’ll reach for Mjolnir just yet 🤔   
 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 9:15 PST 

 

Scream - 1700/6640 on 23 shows - $23,340

 

May be add 25-50 more seats tops. 

 

68% of Halloween Kills Admits - $3.3M

74% of Halloween Kills Gross - $3.6M

100% of The Suicide Squad Admits - $4M

 

HK did over index in Southern US. If it was being normal, it will be around $3.9M approx. with this gross. I am going with $3.75M.

Halloween comps would have been right on it. So guess this also indexed well in South.

[Cap]

3 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said:

One of these sounds kinda fun, but the other sounds like it could be a hassle. Don’t think I’ll reach for Mjolnir just yet 🤔   
 

 

like I’d let you have it. They gave it to ME! 🥳

 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Cap said:

like I’d like you have it. They gave it to ME! 🥳

 

Spare a stormbreaker for those in need? 🥺

[Cap]

7 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Spare a stormbreaker for those in need? 🥺

 

 

[Porthos]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oooppps.  

 

Managed to get a sample taken, but it's about an hour later than I normally take 7pm'ers.  But this is Quick and Dirty, so I'm not that concerned.  At least I remembered to grab the Fan Event showings in time.

 

Quick and Dirty Scream (2022) Sacto Report [6:45pm - 7:05pm]:

2590/12249 (21.14% sold) [+987]

 

Final Comps:

 

105.80% of Halloween Kills (4.98m) (adj down for Ont)

77.64%   of AQP II               (3.72m)

58.77%   of F9                    (4.17m)

110.12% of TSS                   (4.33m) (adj down for Ont)

 

Even though I took my sample about an hour later than I did for H:K, still lost ground even though it outsold it on a pure day-for-day comp.

 

Thinking about 4.6m to 5.1m as it did outsell H:K locally.  Since this is Q&D, I refuse to think more than I have to.  

 

*goes back to gaming*

 

 

So H:K did under-perform here fairly heavily, even for horror.  Good to know.

 

*throws H:K comp in the dumpster, never to be used again*

 

(figure the other comps were off due to difference in sample time)

 

See y'all at The Batman start. 

[Shawn Robbins]

2 hours ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Daayyuumm @Product Driven Legion he just said you’re dumb and need to piss off. You gonna take that?!? You know if you smite him, you get to take title of Founder / Operator. Don’t research that, just believe me.

I know you're kidding, but just want to say I'm not slighting at all -- if anything, I think the data you all collect around here is impressive from the snippets I've seen. And trust me, I understand first-hand how time intensive it is.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Scream Megaplex

 

T-2 days Saturday(88 showings): 336(+90)/19811 in 15 theaters

Halloween Kills T-2 comp: 14.66M

 

T-3 days Sunday(79 showings): 120(+33)/16841 in 15 theaters

Halloween Kills T-3 comp: 9.17M

Scream Megaplex

 

T-1 days Saturday(88 showings): 498(+162)/19811 in 15 theaters

Halloween Kills T-1 comp: 15.11M

 

T-2 days Sunday(79 showings): 155(+35)/16841 in 15 theaters

Halloween Kills T-2 comp: 8.34M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Scream Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 days Saturday(262 showings): 3742(+760)/35075(+258)

ATP: $13.56

 

T-3 days Sunday(242 showings): 1777(+255)/32457(+1411)

ATP: $13.07

Scream Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 days Saturday(262 showings): 4977(+1235)/35075

ATP: $13.48

93.4% of Friday at the same time

 

T-2 days Sunday(242 showings): 2266(+489)/32457

ATP: $13.12

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Jackass Forever should be on sale soon. Cinemark has it listed on Thursday the 3rd. 730 showtimes

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

On 1/13/2022 at 8:19 PM, Product Driven Legion said:

BOP going way low on Scream

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	4-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Monday, January 17	Location Count	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Scream (2022)	Paramount Pictures	$29,800,000	$33,700,000	$33,700,000	3,664	NEW
Spider-Man: No Way Home	Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios	$19,900,000	$24,900,000	$702,800,000	3,925	-39%
Sing 2	Universal Pictures	$8,700,000	$11,700,000	$122,700,000	3,581	-25%
The 355	Universal Pictures	$2,000,000	$2,300,000	$8,400,000	3,145	-57%
The King’s Man	Disney / 20th Century Studios	$1,900,000	$2,300,000	$28,700,000	2,510	-41%
American Underdog	Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company	$1,700,000	$2,000,000	$21,500,000	2,394	-27%
West Side Story (2021)	Disney / 20th Century Studios	$1,100,000	$1,400,000	$34,200,000	1,460	-20%
The Matrix Resurrections	Warner Bros. Pictures	$925,000	$1,100,000	$36,100,000	1,725	-50%
Licorice Pizza	United Artists Releasing	$800,000	$1,000,000	$9,700,000	772	-19%
Ghostbusters: Afterlife	Sony Pictures / Columbia	$725,000	$900,000	$126,300,000	1,202	-35%

 

But I think this is the first time they’ve offered 3day and 4day for all movies? Like that change a lot @Shawn 👍

Way low, huh? 🤔